randomep Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I get frustrated with the lack of discussion on the stocks I post about and have interest in. My takeaway is they must not be good enough ideas or they need to be cheaper to be more interesting to people. I have the opposite reaction. When a stock I'm interested in doesn't have a thread already created here (or has one with few replies) I like it even more. If you want to invest in the Apples and General Motors of the world you'll never have a shortage of people to discuss your ideas with. But I thought this board is for contrarian-value investors. I read stuff on seeking-alpha and feel the way you do, the more popular it is, the more I won't invest in it. But if this board is really like that then maybe I should find another forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I get frustrated with the lack of discussion on the stocks I post about and have interest in. My takeaway is they must not be good enough ideas or they need to be cheaper to be more interesting to people. Can you be more specific? I went through your last 100 post history and all stocks mentioned there have a lot of discussion. For example, yesterday, ItsAValueTrap asked if anyone was interested in AAMC/RESI. I explained why I was not, but no one else chimed in with an opinion. AAMC is down 85% from peak and RESI is at 77% of tangible book. Even though I have my issues and reservations with both, I would think someone else would at least have an opinion. I tried to get people to look at Forestar ( an owner of energy assets, timber, and lots of real estate that is down a lot at a decent discount to book and undergoing activism), but there didn't seem to be much traction. I personally find it compelling but am waiting for a little more clarity and progress to size it up. No one cares about ACAS, a BDC at 70% of book (75%) after adjusting for full dilution, it will split into parasite co and host co (asset manager and yield pig BDC) this year. No one cares about Tetragon, 50-60% of book (undiluted and diluted), 6% dividend, decent mix of assets, No one cares about Equity Commonwealth, cheap office REIT chaired by Sam Zell The reality is that several of these are either not spectacularly cheap, have shitty or greedy (or both) management, and there isn't a ton to discuss about them so my expectations should be low. I just think the 1/10 of posts on BH and SHLD (which i still read and sometimes contribute to the problem) should maybe make it to other ideas. I will say I often don't have much to say about small cap australian companies or this or that so it's not like I'm part of the solution. EDIT: And there are much better more interesting ideas posted by others that get little discussion, didn't mean to make this a personal rant I'm long EQC and established the position only long after your initial post. I actually have some limit orders open as I type to add to the position. It also really turned me onto Corvex Keith Meister, whom I am closely following now (and am going to get some ARCP if I can catch a fill @ $8 which is about where I ballparked with $0 value attributed to the non-traded REIT business). Thanks very much! Also, enjoyed the discussion of JOE...it is about a buck away from getting real interesting to me. I've looked at ACAS multiple times, but I can't get comfortable with the people. I'm also trying to limit myself more to opportunities where the agency "costs" inherent in public company governance are in some way minimized (such as having Corvex and Related on the board with Zell running things; or where Berkowitz is on the board keeping an eye on mgmt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I get frustrated with the lack of discussion on the stocks I post about and have interest in. My takeaway is they must not be good enough ideas or they need to be cheaper to be more interesting to people. Can you be more specific? I went through your last 100 post history and all stocks mentioned there have a lot of discussion. For example, yesterday, ItsAValueTrap asked if anyone was interested in AAMC/RESI. I explained why I was not, but no one else chimed in with an opinion. AAMC is down 85% from peak and RESI is at 77% of tangible book. Even though I have my issues and reservations with both, I would think someone else would at least have an opinion. I tried to get people to look at Forestar ( an owner of energy assets, timber, and lots of real estate that is down a lot at a decent discount to book and undergoing activism), but there didn't seem to be much traction. I personally find it compelling but am waiting for a little more clarity and progress to size it up. No one cares about ACAS, a BDC at 70% of book (75%) after adjusting for full dilution, it will split into parasite co and host co (asset manager and yield pig BDC) this year. No one cares about Tetragon, 50-60% of book (undiluted and diluted), 6% dividend, decent mix of assets, No one cares about Equity Commonwealth, cheap office REIT chaired by Sam Zell The reality is that several of these are either not spectacularly cheap, have shitty or greedy (or both) management, and there isn't a ton to discuss about them so my expectations should be low. I just think the 1/10 of posts on BH and SHLD (which i still read and sometimes contribute to the problem) should maybe make it to other ideas. I will say I often don't have much to say about small cap australian companies or this or that so it's not like I'm part of the solution. EDIT: And there are much better more interesting ideas posted by others that get little discussion, didn't mean to make this a personal rant I care about these stocks. When and where were they mentioned? Maybe it got buried in the tons of daily posts so I didn't notice. I have never heard of all these stocks and will at least read their financials, starting with tetragon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I get frustrated with the lack of discussion on the stocks I post about and have interest in. My takeaway is they must not be good enough ideas or they need to be cheaper to be more interesting to people. I have the opposite reaction. When a stock I'm interested in doesn't have a thread already created here (or has one with few replies) I like it even more. If you want to invest in the Apples and General Motors of the world you'll never have a shortage of people to discuss your ideas with. But I thought this board is for contrarian-value investors. I read stuff on seeking-alpha and feel the way you do, the more popular it is, the more I won't invest in it. But if this board is really like that then maybe I should find another forum? Ironic, Eh! I remember a board member data mined the investment ideas section. Came to conclusion that the ideas that have less replies tend to outperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I remember a board member data mined the investment ideas section. Came to conclusion that the ideas that have less replies tend to outperform. BRK and FFH have no chance then... ;) Although I wonder if they have 800 pages combined across all threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I remember a board member data mined the investment ideas section. Came to conclusion that the ideas that have less replies tend to outperform. BRK and FFH have no chance then... ;) Although I wonder if they have 800 pages combined across all threads... Sorry to nitpick, but FFH/Brk have a chance but it is lower than the lesser known. It is like saying china is poorer per capita than the US, so you have no chance of being a billionaire in china. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I’m finding Twitter to be a superior source of information since you can filter out the noise and really narrow down your interests to certain individuals who contribute immensely. Who do you follow on Twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Since the perception of Quality of posts has come up, thought I'd put up some summary stats that is perhaps more objective when measuring quality. Here is a table of the top stocks discussed (most replies) in the Investment ideas section (just the first page) and how the stock has performed since the first post. # posts Then Now Change Rank SHLD 7996 $58 $42 -28% 11 BAC 6252 $13 $16 23% 7 AAPL 4502 $46 $130 183% 3 ALS.TO 3911 $14 $14 0% 9 BBRY 3082 $62 $10 -84% 13 FTP.TO 2431 $40 $4 -90% 14 BH 1898 $293 $353 20% 8 AIG 1785 $31 $59 90% 5 FIATY 1777 $6 $9 50% 6 SD 1667 $5 $1 -80% 12 VRX 1545 $74 $239 223% 2 GOOG 1527 $268 $545 103% 4 LVLT 1474 $13 $55 323% 1 MBIA 1440 $10 $9 -10% 10 Source: Yahoo Stock Page; Dividends not included. The list above accounted for 50% of all posts in the investment ideas section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eye4Valu Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Isn't this thread an example of what is being complained about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 When BAC was at half of tangible book, the posts on here were gold, mainly from eric. It's a tough environment with BAC above TBV and the market at 17x forward earnings. It's hard to generate alpha in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Thank you longinvestor for posting that. So over half (64% to be exact) of the ideas have done well. Which is not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Well sorry folks. I started the unfunded, unfounded, confounded liabilities on pensions thread (in General Discussions). My background for far too many years was valuations (derivatives, mortgages, some PE, etc) concerning 10+ figure amounts. It gets pretty mind numbing and myopic so my interests always wandered into the more macro territory. Plus, I've followed Buffett closely since the mid 1980s and owned BRK since the early 1990s and so his interests naturally become contagious and became mine and so I see them as worthy of debate. For instance, understanding institutional behaviour, one of his key 'job requirements' by the way, is also fascinating to me. Macro meandering but interesting nonetheless. In the 70s Buffett talked a few times about pension return projections and pension behaviour. Being in the field made it a natural interest to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 After being spoiled by the excitement of 2006-2009, and then again in late 2011, I just find it more interesting during these days of doldrums to debate the ethics of criminalized prostitution and drugs. Money, women and drugs. Not enough money to be made lately, so thoughts lean to women and drugs. Let the trade winds blow again and we'll get back to the business of money hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I think discussing any leisure activity and hobbies is fine. It's like this... war is boring most of the time, and then there are brief intervals of extreme excitement/fear. You drink, shoot drugs, chase women, talk about cars and hobbies to pass the long boring interludes. But you drop all of that discussion when the shooting starts up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 I think discussing any leisure activity and hobbies is fine. It's like this... war is boring most of the time, and then there are brief intervals of extreme excitement/fear. You drink, shoot drugs, chase women, talk about cars and hobbies to pass the long boring interludes. But you drop all of that discussion when the shooting starts up again. I do miss Morgan and his FunShares. http://www.nytimes.com/1995/02/18/your-money/18iht-fun.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 What happened to this board? It used to be a useful forum predominately for the discussion of BRK, FFH, and presentation and debate value stock ideas. More and more over the last few years the board seems to be predominately a forum for discussing topics such as the following (actual threads posted in over the last month). Some of these may be tangentially related to stock at some level (? mostly macro), but many are re-posts of whatever the yahoo finance headline of the day is (there is no need to re-post here for discussion...), most are unrelated to investments in any way and none deal with actual investment ideas. Summary: this board has become very littered and weeding through all posts to find those of value has become harder and harder. In my opinion, the place used to be better when it was a forum predominately for the discussion and debate of specific trade ideas. SILK ROAD Creator's Plea for Leniency How do you internalize what you read? Rooftop solar vs utility solar Dimon calls shareholders lazy What’s the best way to advertise your product in foreign countries? Fishing in BC Fusion Pension funds with unfunded liabilities - you gotta be kidding John and Alicia Nash killed in car accident Name one product/service that you love and one that you hate Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value? very strong el Nino perhaps? Looking for some input Alfalfa and Almonds! WTF! Rubio cashed out his IRA to pay for appliances (and college) Mayweather - Pacquiao Harley down 4.5% Practical Currency Hedging Question with Options Currency fluctuations Tom Brady sacked (suspended) for four games Dan Loeb Slams Warren Buffett Janet Yellen says equity market valuations are quite high Setting up brokerage account for another Tax Question Okay, this is Nuts I'm actually going to look up some of these threads. "Name one product/service that you love and one that you hate" Scuttlebutt investing! How exactly did Warren Buffett first discover Sees Candy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Sometimes I open up a lame post and it makes me a little unhappy. But then I think about all the people who aren't wasting their time posting in it and it cheers me back up. I just want to congratulate everyone who doesn't make bad comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Thanks for writing this watsa. Lots of new ideas in last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Sometimes I open up a lame post and it makes me a little unhappy. But then I think about all the people who aren't wasting their time posting in it and it cheers me back up. I just want to congratulate everyone who doesn't make bad comments. What's the old banker saying? There's no such thing as a bad loan, just good loans that go bad. (something like that.) So maybe we should adopt the attitude that: there's no such thing as a bad thread, just good threads that go bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 What’s the best way to advertise your product in foreign countries? Of course I can only speak for myself: imo that question is very much business related, and anything that's business related is also related to invetments. Thinking about business related topics might always be useful, even if those topics are a bit far from what you happen to be interested in at the moment. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 This board was born at the perfect time, at the dawn of 10 years of a flat market with significant volatility - two 50% bears (2002 and 2008) and one 20% (2011). I have long wondered what it would look like here if the market was to enter/have entered a period like 1982-2000...I think we are seeing it. For me personally, the lack of Sanjeev is huge. I learned boatloads from him between 2010 when I joined thru say 2012/2013; with Ericopoly and Uccmal close behind. And it was fun when MooreCapital was here... So I guess here's to hoping for that bear market Hussy has been calling for since S&P 1200 :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 This board was born at the perfect time, at the dawn of 10 years of a flat market with significant volatility - two 50% bears (2002 and 2008) and one 20% (2011). I have long wondered what it would look like here if the market was to enter/have entered a period like 1982-2000...I think we are seeing it. For me personally, the lack of Sanjeev is huge. I learned boatloads from him between 2010 when I joined thru say 2012/2013; with Ericopoly and Uccmal close behind. And it was fun when MooreCapital was here... So I guess here's to hoping for that bear market Hussy has been calling for since S&P 1200 :) Thanks for the hat tip Bmichaud. I for one have moved to a vastly more conservative stance. Part of this is due to my need for steady income and part is due to no blockbuster ideas in North America. One caveat to this is oil. I hold about 20% of my portfolio related to the oil market: MTL, ARX, and PWE - say 10% directly in ARX and PWE. I am down to 2% in Leaps half PWE and half BAC. It is not that I am particularly bearish. As the dividends come in I am redeploying the cash in the same holdings. At some point there will be a market pullback. Every blog or discussion forum I go on these days, newspaper articles, etc., are all pushing people to go into ETFs. Of course these ETFs have all performed well for a few years, and people want to believe that markets always go up at 10% or so, every year. This money is going to panic at some point, and there will be carnage. Even active mangers are buying ETFs because they dont know what else to do. I also think the US has forgotten the value of Canada as a safe energy source, just as the mideast is set t blow up with social unrest. The noise on the board is just reflecting the lack of real opportunities locally (NA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 I like there being non-investing-related threads on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 As somebody who tries to bring down the level of each discussion. I say YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Since the start of this thread, it looks like the smaller/less popular names are getting some attention and more replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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