This2ShallPass Posted February 7 Posted February 7 9 hours ago, Xerxes said: The Competitive Landscape • Fairfax India: Widely considered the frontrunner. Reports suggest Fairfax is offering an all-cash deal, which may be viewed more favorably by the government than complex stock-swap structures. • Kotak Mahindra Bank: Although long considered a top rival, Kotak issued a clarification to stock exchanges today (February 7) stating it has not submitted a financial bid for IDBI Bank, citing material movement in its share price as the reason for the public denial. • Other Bidders: While Emirates NBD and Oaktree Capital were previously cleared by the RBI's "fit and proper" assessment, recent reports indicate they may have also stayed away from the final financial bidding round. Looks like IDBI stock is up 40% in last 12 months, that's why Kotak is not bidding. Hopefully we didn't bid with a premium (but don't see how it'll be approved without one). Not sure all cash transaction makes sense either when there doesn't seem to be other bidders..
Haryana Posted February 8 Posted February 8 The stock is just as likely to go down as up on Monday due to increased uncertainty for this.
Xerxes Posted February 8 Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Haryana said: The stock is just as likely to go down as up on Monday due to increased uncertainty for this. Agreed though I reckon without press release, it shall be a UNCH. As i dont think the market in North America squints too hard on local media outlet in India. FIH is already illiquid, no official news and no press release … so i am betting on an UNCH !!
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 8 Posted February 8 6 hours ago, Haryana said: What about their condition that at least two resonable bidders are required for the process? Emirates are back in the mix. https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/finance/fairfax-financial-and-emirates-nbd-submit-bids-for-idbi-bank-disinvestment-sources-ws-l-19844852.htm#
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 8 Posted February 8 5 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: Looks like IDBI stock is up 40% in last 12 months, that's why Kotak is not bidding. Hopefully we didn't bid with a premium (but don't see how it'll be approved without one). Not sure all cash transaction makes sense either when there doesn't seem to be other bidders.. If the remaining bids are cash, I expect them to pay less than the stock price. I think the offer has to be made to the minority too. KOTAK trades at a big premium to IDBI. If they were buying they would want the minority to also sell and could afford to pay a premium. I’m not sure about the Emirates but Fairfax probably wants to increase the float by having IDBI buy CSB for stock. They need a price where the minority doesn’t want to sell but Fairfax should be ok if they do. Like when a company does a rights issue and it’s backstopped by the biggest shareholder.
This2ShallPass Posted February 8 Posted February 8 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Emirates are back in the mix. https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/finance/fairfax-financial-and-emirates-nbd-submit-bids-for-idbi-bank-disinvestment-sources-ws-l-19844852.htm# This article says CSB merger can only happen after, so FFI cannot contribute CSB. They have $100M in cash and current IDBI price 60% is $7B. How could FFI realistically be part of the bid? Did Fairfax ever say FFI will be a part or is it just assumption by our board? "If Fairfax were to emerge as the winning bidder, sources said the firm, which is the promoter of CSB Bank, could explore a merger between CSB Bank and IDBI Bank at a later stage, subject to regulatory approvals."
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 8 Posted February 8 6 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: This article says CSB merger can only happen after, so FFI cannot contribute CSB. They have $100M in cash and current IDBI price 60% is $7B. How could FFI realistically be part of the bid? Did Fairfax ever say FFI will be a part or is it just assumption by our board? "If Fairfax were to emerge as the winning bidder, sources said the firm, which is the promoter of CSB Bank, could explore a merger between CSB Bank and IDBI Bank at a later stage, subject to regulatory approvals." FIH has exclusivity on non insurance investments for FFH. They have to be part of the deal or presumably compensated if they are excluded. That’s why I think the GP/LP structure makes a lot of sense. They could put up some cash, use their line and then also contribute CSB to end up with an equity stake material to FIH as the GP.
Hoodlum Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 13 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Emirates are back in the mix. https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/finance/fairfax-financial-and-emirates-nbd-submit-bids-for-idbi-bank-disinvestment-sources-ws-l-19844852.htm# it is hard to know what to believe from these India “source” as they have been more wrong than correct. They just seem to be guesses at this point. The only thing we know for certain is that Kotak Mahindra Bank did not submit a bid. On Friday all the Indian news site were saying that Fairfax and Kotak Mahindra were the only ones submitting bids. Edited February 8 by Hoodlum
This2ShallPass Posted February 8 Posted February 8 5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: FIH has exclusivity on non insurance investments for FFH. They have to be part of the deal or presumably compensated if they are excluded. That’s why I think the GP/LP structure makes a lot of sense. They could put up some cash, use their line and then also contribute CSB to end up with an equity stake material to FIH as the GP. What will the structure look like? I agree if they can contribute CSB it makes more sense as they can bring in ~10% of potential deal value. Looks like that can't be done at time of the deal, it'll have to go through additional regulatory hurdles that the govt won't be too keen on and it worsens Fairfax's offer. With only $100M, what is their value? I love your GP / LP idea, it makes sense and we would get a huge relief on these fees! I want to be riding on FFs dime for a change.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 8 Posted February 8 2 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: it'll have to go through additional regulatory hurdles that the govt won't be too keen on and it worsens Fairfax's offer. I assume it will be part of the plan. The additional approval will be the minority at CSB and probably at IDBI too. I’m not sure why it worsens Fairfax’s offer. Why do you think so? 2 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: With only $100M, what is their value? I’m not sure what you are asking.
This2ShallPass Posted February 9 Posted February 9 6 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I assume it will be part of the plan. The additional approval will be the minority at CSB and probably at IDBI too. I’m not sure why it worsens Fairfax’s offer. Why do you think so? Doesn't it require regulatory approvals as well, to merge two banks? It's worse because it's more complicated and if the other bid doesn't have any such stipulations, the government might prefer that. 7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I’m not sure what you are asking. It's a multi billion dollar deal. FFI in the best case, can only put $100M and are not a financially relevant party. Other option is to be a GP, but you need to be bringing special expertise that the LPs don't have and it's not clear to me FFI has that. So what do they bring to the table?
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 9 Posted February 9 7 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: Doesn't it require regulatory approvals as well, to merge two banks? It's worse because it's more complicated and if the other bid doesn't have any such stipulations, the government might prefer that. The other bidder does own another bank. So same hurdles I guess. 7 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: It's a multi billion dollar deal. FFI in the best case, can only put $100M and are not a financially relevant party. Other option is to be a GP, but you need to be bringing special expertise that the LPs don't have and it's not clear to me FFI has that. So what do they bring to the table? FIH has the right to all non insurance acquisitions for Fairfax in India. They have the network and have been working on this deal for over 3 years. They bring CSB and the CSB management team who are used to managing much larger institutions. The stake will be material to FIH. That’s what they bring to the table.
This2ShallPass Posted February 9 Posted February 9 7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: The other bidder does own another bank. So same hurdles I guess. Only if they are trying to include their stake in the other bank as part of the deal. 7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: FIH has the right to all non insurance acquisitions for Fairfax in India. They have the network and have been working on this deal for over 3 years. They bring CSB and the CSB management team who are used to managing much larger institutions. The stake will be material to FIH. That’s what they bring to the table. Good point on CSB management. I hope FIH becomes GP. Would the government or regulators care who is GP in the deal or will they be evaluating it purely based on Fairfax's strengths?
gfp Posted February 9 Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said: Only if they are trying to include their stake in the other bank as part of the deal. Not sure if I am misunderstanding the discussion here, but I believe any bidder with another control position in an Indian bank (Fairfax, Kotak, etc) will be required to merge that bank with IDBI - not necessarily at the exact moment the deal closes (in fact, that is very unlikely) but as a pre-promised near term step. India does not want "promoters" controlling more than one bank. And they probably want IDBI to be the surviving "brand."
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 9 Posted February 9 1 hour ago, This2ShallPass said: Good point on CSB management. I hope FIH becomes GP. Would the government or regulators care who is GP in the deal or will they be evaluating it purely based on Fairfax's strengths? That’s all been decided otherwise they wouldn’t get a chance to bid. The last three years was working out of these details. The final step is the price.
This2ShallPass Posted February 10 Posted February 10 2 hours ago, gfp said: Not sure if I am misunderstanding the discussion here, but I believe any bidder with another control position in an Indian bank (Fairfax, Kotak, etc) will be required to merge that bank with IDBI - not necessarily at the exact moment the deal closes (in fact, that is very unlikely) but as a pre-promised near term step. India does not want "promoters" controlling more than one bank. And they probably want IDBI to be the surviving "brand." If it doesn't happen during the deal, then what FIH can contribute financially is much lower. 55 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: That’s all been decided otherwise they wouldn’t get a chance to bid. The last three years was working out of these details. The final step is the price. Are you saying FIH as GP has been finalized? I was not aware of that.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 10 Posted February 10 48 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said: If it doesn't happen during the deal, then what FIH can contribute financially is much lower. Are you saying FIH as GP has been finalized? I was not aware of that. I don’t think Day 1 matters as much as what they end up with. I’m not saying FIH as GP has been finalized but whatever the structure is must be acceptable otherwise they wouldn’t be able to bid.
villainx Posted February 10 Posted February 10 2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I’m not saying FIH as GP has been finalized but whatever the structure is must be acceptable otherwise they wouldn’t be able to bid. Acceptable but maybe not preferred? But I'm just wondering what and how things work, when news come out, the news will be out.
gfp Posted February 19 Posted February 19 (edited) Q4 / Annual Results for FIH https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/19/3241609/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Financial-Results-for-the-Year-Ended-December-31-2025.html "The company's book value per share increased 9.4% to $22.94 at December 31, 2025" Edited February 19 by gfp
Crip1 Posted February 19 Posted February 19 43 minutes ago, gfp said: Q4 / Annual Results for FIH https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/19/3241609/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Financial-Results-for-the-Year-Ended-December-31-2025.html "The company's book value per share increased 9.4% to $22.94 at December 31, 2025" $2.53/Share in Q4...that's pretty remarkable. Most folks, myself included, were so focused on FFH that we did not consider what could happen at FIH. -Crip
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 20 Posted February 20 9 hours ago, Crip1 said: $2.53/Share in Q4...that's pretty remarkable. Most folks, myself included, were so focused on FFH that we did not consider what could happen at FIH. -Crip Regular marking up of BIAL provides some predictable book value growth for FIH. That might make it easier to own thus shrinking the discount.
Madpawn Posted February 26 Posted February 26 Keen to get this board's opinion on currency risk as we're essentially dealing with a company operating in Indian (rupee) but traded in USD, with investors largely based in Canada (CAD)...has anyone reflected on / read management's notes on long-term currency implications for Canadian investors?
Hoodlum Posted February 27 Posted February 27 Fairfax may have the winning bid according to Bloomberg source. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/fairfax-said-to-lead-race-for-8-billion-india-bank-stake-sale?embedded-checkout=true
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 27 Posted February 27 30 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Fairfax may have the winning bid according to Bloomberg source. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/fairfax-said-to-lead-race-for-8-billion-india-bank-stake-sale?embedded-checkout=true Anything interesting highlights from the text? Price, structure etc?
Hoodlum Posted February 27 Posted February 27 15 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Anything interesting highlights from the text? Price, structure etc? It doesn't look like there are any details yet.
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