Fairfax India new issue

[hardcorevalue]

Yes as fantastic as BIAL is, the opportunity cost on this one is adding up every year as fees pile on. 

[Eng12345]

Did anyone notice that they launched a podcast lmao? 

 

Podcast - Fairfax India

 

 

Edited December 28, 2025 by Eng12345

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

Did anyone notice that they launched a podcast lmao? 

 

Podcast - Fairfax India

 

 

Yeah, it was shared here on Dec 19. I guess you don’t think it’s a good idea?

[Eng12345]

2 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Yeah, it was shared here on Dec 19. I guess you don’t think it’s a good idea?

I think it has merit and I'm always pro additional disclosure. However, I'm not sure how much it will really move the needle.

[SafetyinNumbers]

20 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

I think it has merit and I'm always pro additional disclosure. However, I'm not sure how much it will really move the needle.

its hard to say. Ultimately, share prices are just supply and demand so anything that might keep someone from selling or helping someone decide to buy is a good thing. I know after visiting with Hari and his team with a group of other investors at the airport almost a year ago I decided to buy more stock. I own 60% more FIH shares now than I did a year ago. The discount to intrinsic value has probably grown substantially even if book value hasn’t changed much. 

[villainx]

5 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

I think it has merit and I'm always pro additional disclosure. However, I'm not sure how much it will really move the needle.

 

You mean after BIAL, then buyback episode, then wait for season two when there's BIAL ipo?

[Malmqky]

On 12/26/2025 at 4:52 PM, RichardGibbons said:

 

I'm confused by this. The ROE is guaranteed to be lower than it "should be" every single year, forever.  If it would normally compound at 10%, it's instead going to compound at 8%. Investors who look at it will see the numbers and think, "After 20 years, if FIH is making 10% on its investments, then I've lost almost a third of my return as a result of fees going to Fairfax."

 

Why do you think that doesn't matter?

Thesis being BIAL is worth significantly more than what’s on the balance sheet. IPO in the next few years.

 

Obviously the fees are far from ideal and the reason I’d never hold this long term. But they don’t “break” the thesis as I stated. Perhaps stating they don’t impact it is too optimistic as they limit upside however.

[This2ShallPass]

On 12/23/2025 at 12:53 PM, CoGreenwich&Laight said:

Other than the poor performance actual and relative of bvps, share price, and particularly relative to their own objective of 15% net cagr, this is all you need to know about why there is a discount to nav, thats it.  Never mind their refusal to correct performance, incentive structures, and lack of shareholder friendly action. 

 

And on the takeunder comments...it doesnt have to be in one shot as with their previous escapades. This structure is better. Its already in play...they bought shares in 2022 i think it was, while getting fees...so in this case we pay for the takeunder as it unfolds in slow motion over an extended period of shareholder fatigue...they're average cost already is below $0.00. This is the ultimate takeunder, its paid for. These are facts, real numbers, not made up. You can paint any other picture you want, its the case, even if its not preconceived as i believe it wasnt.

 

We can continue to watch it unfold while living in denial, hope and hype. Or, we can try to shift the narrative and discuss this with mgmt, the Board or the press. One of the comments on the X post by BW of latest podcast of BIAL is a request to do a share buyback. There are many who are dissatisfied, who support a buyback as the most important use of capital, on this board and off it. We should form a group and present our case. Both number of shareholders, and number of shares is important. PW is the largest individual shareholder at ~320K shares. I can speak for 222,600. If we get more than PW, another 100k, they should give our rep an audience. If theres anyone up for this constructivist action do let me know. People who want to remain confidential can. 

@CoGreenwich&Laight I just want to say I really appreciate the inputs you have brought to this board. I know it's always hard to do when there's lot of pushback. I see you have stopped posting after someone said about activism. I see nothing wrong with asking fellow investors if they are willing to express concerns to management (in a board of an investment that has performed terribly over 11 years). It's not like you're forcing anyone. 

 

Also, going by your large position you are more bullish (multiple times over) than most folks here, myself included! Hope you continue sharing your thoughts.

 

Edited December 28, 2025 by This2ShallPass

[Munger_Disciple]

10 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

@CoGreenwich&Laight I just want to say I really appreciate the inputs you have brought to this board. I know it's always hard to do when there's lot of pushback. I see you have stopped posting after someone said something about activism. I see nothing wrong with asking fellow investors if they are willing to express concerns to management (in a board of an investment that has performed terribly over 11 years). It's not like you're forcing anyone. 

 

Also, going by your large position you are more bullish (multiple times over) than most folks here, myself included! Hope you continue sharing your thoughts here.

 

 

+1 

 

Even if someone is very bullish on a name, it's important to hear the downside possibilities, especially from LT suffering shareholders. Otherwise the forum quickly becomes a giant echo chamber to the detriment of all. 

 

If I have a beef with the discussion on this forum, it's that some of the big fans of certain stocks seem to "talk down" to folks with even slightly opposing views, even to those whose partially agree with them. 

Edited December 28, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[This2ShallPass]

31 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

If I have a beef with the discussion on this forum, it's that some of the big fans of certain stocks seem to "talk down" to folks with even slightly opposing views, even to those whose partially agree with them. 

I have noticed this as well. The community will be stronger if people are not worried about being piled on for any dissenting thought. How do we go about doing that?

I think this is a feature of most investment boards, not just this one. The people who care enough to post are usually the longs, while bears tend to sell and move on.

Edited December 28, 2025 by This2ShallPass

[Munger_Disciple]

6 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

I have noticed this as well. The community will be stronger if people are not worried about being piled on for any dissenting thought. How do we go about doing that?

 

It's very hard to control this. I urge posters to be self-aware, control their own behavior & be respectful of opposing views. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

It's very hard to control this. I urge posters to be self-aware, control their own behavior & be respectful of opposing views. 

I appreciate debate and believe I am respectful in my comments but I do bristle when posters choose a framing that questions the integrity of Fairfax management and claims that they are acting in a malicious manner towards minority shareholders.

 

I think the group that has let down minority holders are the institutional investors that originally agreed to the fee structure. They and quite frankly everyone who purchased FIH has done so with their eyes open. If they understood FFH’s culture, they would know that positions would be marked conservatively so BV growth would probably understate intrinsic value growth. They likely appreciated the cheap leverage offset a portion of the management fee. They knew the potential for FFH to elect for performance fees in shares incentivized them to close the discount every three years. They believed that FIH could trade at a big premium to book (closer to intrinsic value) and it did for the first few years but then the market structure changed and most of the PMs that negotiated on behalf of the minority probably lost their jobs or sold their positions.
 

I think FFH has done everything we would expect them to do. They had FIH buyback stock to more than offset the performance fees that they were forced contractually to take in stock. They bought more shares themselves. It’s not surprising they would prefer to use FIH’s capital to make investments vs buying back stock.

 

While we can lament about the stock price return for the last 10 years, it’s more interesting to think what it might be over the next 10. Much like the mothership, returns can be deferred for only so long before it starts coming through in the reported numbers. 

 

[RichardGibbons]

9 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Thesis being BIAL is worth significantly more than what’s on the balance sheet. IPO in the next few years.

 

Ah, okay, that makes sense. I think I almost never do that sort of investing, where I assume that I'll hold until a particular unscheduled event happens. I typically buy with the intention of taking a short term gain on a scheduled event, or with the intention of buying a company that I think is cheap and will compound.

 

That's where the disconnect was in my thinking. Thanks!

[Xerxes]

I have not listened to this yet but I believe Ben Watsa is the guest

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rock-and-turner-investment-podcast/id1772482719?i=1000727211431

 

 

 

I believe there is also a TedTalk with Ben Watsa. But I can’t seem to find it. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

35 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I believe there is also a TedTalk with Ben Watsa. But I can’t seem to find it. 

 

Here it is: 

 

 

[UK]

7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

 

Here it is: 

 

 

 

This was actually quite nice presentation for such a young man! So it seems that the future generation of FFH owners/leaders posses not only the investment, but also quite good communication skills:) 

 

Edited December 29, 2025 by UK

[Xerxes]

14 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

 

Here it is: 

 

 

thank you 

[Xerxes]

7 hours ago, UK said:

 

This was actually quite nice presentation for such a young man! So it seems that the future generation of FFH owners/leaders posses not only the investment, but also quite good communication skills:) 

 

 

he is awesome !!

[Xerxes]

Sad though, 20% of global GDP just before British rule, … just a shadow by the time they ran it to the ground circa 1947

[UK]

55 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

he is awesome !!

I agree, was too reserved with the complements:))

[Xerxes]

On 12/26/2025 at 8:22 PM, hardcorevalue said:

Yes as fantastic as BIAL is, the opportunity cost on this one is adding up every year as fees pile on. 

imagine if BV goes to $40, in the next little while, through realization and IPOs, the performance fee to FFH are going to get hefty 

 

buybacks will offset dilution, but the net effect is more FFH concentration into FIH, unless it’s FFH that sells into the buybacks 

 

 

[CS]

Ai, take with a grain of salt:

 

“Based on this data, the historical high water mark would be $21.85 per share, reached at the end of 2023. This is the level that the company's book value must surpass for a performance fee to be triggered in subsequent years, assuming the 5% hurdle rate is also exceeded. “
 

so like hundreds of millions in fees. 

[Hsmpanl]

12 hours ago, CS said:

Ai, take with a grain of salt:

 

“Based on this data, the historical high water mark would be $21.85 per share, reached at the end of 2023. This is the level that the company's book value must surpass for a performance fee to be triggered in subsequent years, assuming the 5% hurdle rate is also exceeded. “
 

so like hundreds of millions in fees. 

Win-win, we make a lot of money, FFH makes a lot of money. A beautiful outcome.

[Madpawn]

Financial bids for IDBI will be submitted next week and winner announcement by end of March.

 

Curious to get this board’s thoughts - could FFH lend money to FIH for an all cash deal? It should be around $4.5B for 60% of IDBI which can be repaid using proceeds from an eventual IPO of anchorage (last amount a while back was $3.7B). 

[SafetyinNumbers]

37 minutes ago, Madpawn said:

Financial bids for IDBI will be submitted next week and winner announcement by end of March.

 

Curious to get this board’s thoughts - could FFH lend money to FIH for an all cash deal? It should be around $4.5B for 60% of IDBI which can be repaid using proceeds from an eventual IPO of anchorage (last amount a while back was $3.7B). 

I think this is more likely to be a GP/LP structure with FIH as the GP and FFH w/ other PE type players (pensions etc…) as LPs. FIH could contribute its stake in CSB and some cash. I don’t think Anchorage IPO proceeds will go to FIH but stay inside Anchorage for other investments (more airports?).

 

It would be pretty interesting if the fees from IDBI offset most of the FIH fees to FFH as that’s a big part of the bear case.