Fairfax India new issue

[gfp]

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/05/01/3072918/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-First-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

[Txvestor]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/05/01/3072918/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-First-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

Another sizable hit to BV. You def. have to believe in their intrinsic value story to buy here. I do, but definitely would like to see some demonstration of this at the earliest opportunity. 
 

looking at their balance sheet, I don't really understand where the liquidity will come from if they want to build a new airport or partake in other infrastructure projects. They barely have a couple hundred million $ of liquidity. And 70% of their credit line is pledged to Siemens 10% acquisition. 
 

If BIALs exclusivity guarantee is waived off and Fairfax gets involved, how do they keep that fair and friendly to Fairfax India shareholders. Lots of questions. I bought over the last year because I thought the IV was over $30 and it was a growing dollar bill trading at 50c. With a path to closing that within a reasonable time frame. Let's hope so. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 minute ago, Txvestor said:

 

looking at their balance sheet, I don't really understand where the liquidity will come from if they want to build a new airport or partake in other infrastructure projects. They barely have a couple hundred million $ of liquidity. And 70% of their credit line is pledged to Siemens 10% acquisition. 
 

If BIALs exclusivity guarantee is waived off and Fairfax gets involved, how do they keep that fair and friendly to Fairfax India shareholders. Lots of questions. I bought over the last year because I thought the IV was over $30 and it was a growing dollar bill trading at 50c. With a path to closing that within a reasonable time frame. Let's hope so. 

If they raise money inside Anchorage with help from arms-length party like OMERS that should solve for your concerns and increase book value.

[gfp]

What's going on here this afternoon?

[This2ShallPass]

8 hours ago, gfp said:

What's going on here this afternoon?

I was wondering the same. There were a couple 10k+ volumes so doesn't look like a mistake / erroneous trade..maybe good news on IPO next week (we can hope)??

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

6 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

I was wondering the same. There were a couple 10k+ volumes so doesn't look like a mistake / erroneous trade..maybe good news on IPO next week (we can hope)??

 

From press reports it looks like BIAL reported record earnings but I haven’t seen the details.

[netcash1]

$300M in operating profit and $50M in net profit for FY2025 - BIAL 

[gfp]

Can you guys provide a link to the actual release out of BIAL?  I can only find articles describing it and they are mostly all the same syndicated copy.

[hobbit]

some movement on IDBI , I think we will know next month if Fairfax India is still in the race.

 

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/idbi-bank-acquisition-hopes-prompt-emirates-nbd-to-go-down-the-wos-route-profit-exclusive

[villainx]

Quote

According to another person with direct knowledge of the matter, Canada’s Fairfax Capital is working out a special structure to ensure that IDBI Bank and CSB Bank are held separately from each other, at least initially.

 

Upthread @gfp speculated that CSB would be merged into IDBI.  Emirates NBD has edge in simplicity?  Or that wouldn't be prioritize as much?

 

 

[hobbit]

9 hours ago, villainx said:

 

Upthread @gfp speculated that CSB would be merged into IDBI.  Emirates NBD has edge in simplicity?  Or that wouldn't be prioritize as much?

 

 

if it comes down to non financial aspects,  I think Fairfax might have the edge since they have successfully operated another bank( CSB ) in India. Even though IDBI's numbers have improved significantly over the last couple of years, I am still not sure if Fairfax India has the management depth to execute on this long term

Edited May 22, 2025 by hobbit

[gfp]

There are some wacky newcomers in this stock.  They go bananas for it at 18.50 one day and hate it at 17.30 a couple days later.  Airport!  IDBI!  Panic!  Repeat!

[gfp]

31 acres allocated to a new MRO facility for IndiGo

 

https://travelradar.aero/indigo-and-bial-sign-mou-for-mro-facility-at-kempegowda-international-airport/#google_vignette

[gfp]

h/t to BrownMarubozu for posting this interview on twitter.  Good stuff on BIAL ->

 

 

[villainx]

Nothing against you tall folks, but that interviewer is tall!

[gfp]

Saw this article.  Probably speculation but it isn't a forgone conclusion that CSB/FIH will "win" IDBI (and I'm not 100% sure I want them to!)

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/emirates-nbd-likely-top-contender-for-idbi-bank-stake-dipam-said-to-have-explored-valuations-with-potential-bidders-13070063.html

 

 

Interesting context that the central bank in India just surprised by cutting interest rates 50 basis points (their last move had been 25)  and, probably more importantly, reduced the reserve requirements for banks by a full percentage point.  The latter is not usually a sign of strength in an economy - it is something you would do to try to loosen up money and encourage loan growth where you are unhappy with the current level.

 

 

Another article -https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/dubai-state-owned-emirates-nbd-frontrunner-for-idbi-banks-majority-stake

 

Sounds like NBD has far outbid the other contenders.  

Edited June 10, 2025 by gfp

[nwoodman]

8 hours ago, gfp said:

Saw this article.  Probably speculation but it isn't a forgone conclusion that CSB/FIH will "win" IDBI (and I'm not 100% sure I want them to!)

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/emirates-nbd-likely-top-contender-for-idbi-bank-stake-dipam-said-to-have-explored-valuations-with-potential-bidders-13070063.html

 

 

Interesting context that the central bank in India just surprised by cutting interest rates 50 basis points (their last move had been 25)  and, probably more importantly, reduced the reserve requirements for banks by a full percentage point.  The latter is not usually a sign of strength in an economy - it is something you would do to try to loosen up money and encourage loan growth where you are unhappy with the current level.

 

 

Another article -https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/dubai-state-owned-emirates-nbd-frontrunner-for-idbi-banks-majority-stake

 

Sounds like NBD has far outbid the other contenders.  

Thanks for the link. 1.8x book feels rich for a legacy-heavy public sector bank. While Fairfax has clearly put in the work on IDBI,  this might be the clearest test yet of their capital allocation discipline.
 

Prem has long argued that India’s financial sector will outgrow GDP, but even with that structural tailwind, paying this kind of premium demands near-flawless execution.

There’s also the possibility that further deregulation broadens the opportunity set later this decade, arguably a reason to stay patient and keep their powder dry.

[Hoodlum]

BIAL is raising $1.1B in bonds for both refinancing of existing debt and new expansion projects.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bangalore-airport-in-talks-to-raise-about-1-1-billion-in-bonds

 

The tenor for the privately issued bonds could go up to 15 years, said the people. The initially proposed coupon is 8.15%, but it could be lower as negotiations continue, particularly after the Reserve Bank of India slashed the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, they said. Terms are not yet finalized. 

 

ICRA, the local arm of Moody’s Ratings, rated BIAL with a triple-A grade. “The rating considers the healthy improvement in scale of operations,” it said in a note. 

[gfp]

Thanks for the link to the bond issue.  It was pretty great in the linked video interview up thread where the BIAL executive said - we just finished a $2 billion expansion and are about to start another $2 billion expansion- or something like that

 

 

sad to see the plane crash this morning 

Edited June 12, 2025 by gfp

[gfp]

Large volume buy orders today (for this security anyway) 

[nwoodman]

IDBI inching towards a completion.  Three years flies by

 

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/idbi-bank-disinvestment-nears-final-approval-stage-say-government-sources-482040-2025-06-26

 

The strategic disinvestment of IDBI Bank has entered its final approval phase, with the Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) receiving clearance from the Inter-Ministerial Group (IMG), senior government sources told Business Today TV.

“The IMG held two meetings and has recently approved the Share Purchase Agreement. It will now be taken up by the Core Group of Secretaries on Disinvestment. Following that, financial bids are expected to be invited, likely in the first week of September,” a senior official confirmed.

[villainx]

still same 3 vetted buyers?

 

 

[nwoodman]

45 minutes ago, villainx said:

still same 3 vetted buyers?

 

 

Haven’t heard anything to the contrary.  This article mentioned Oaktree as a possible fourth.  I think @gfp may have already posted this link above so apologies if it is doubling up

 

https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/dubai-state-owned-emirates-nbd-frontrunner-for-idbi-banks-majority-stake

[gfp]

Update on the land acquisition for proposed "Aerospace park" near BIAL - farmers protested and plan to compel land sales has been dropped for now

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/karnataka-scraps-land-acquisition-near-bengaluru-airport-over-farm-protests-in-a-setback-for-aerospace-park-13280694.html/amp

 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/bengaluru-news/karnataka-cm-drops-final-notification-to-acquire-1-777-acres-near-kempegowda-airport-101752584445594.html

 

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In other news... Sewage overflow in parking below T2 !

 

[rajpgokul]