Predictions for 2015

[Guest 50centdollars]

inflation of more than 4%

[james22]

Doomsayers keep getting poorer

 

“Hey guys: It's a dud!”

 

~Lt. Red Winkle en route to becoming pink mist in Pearl Harbor

 

http://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/documents/2014-Year-in-Review-Collum.pdf

[frommi]

yeah but interest rates go up with inflation. And since they are so extremely levered, if that happens, the hole in their budget becomes bigger and bigger. They spend twice as much as comes in already, and one quarter of that is interest. So if interest doubles, suddenly they are screwed. They would need to borrow more, and more inflation will only widen that budget gap, untill there is no other way besides hyperinflation or default.

 

What you are saying is possible with the US. But not with Japan. The US has a small budget deficit, and debt isn't so massive yet. I mean sure there is some small chance things will go alright. But there is a reason they are rotating through ministers of finance. And one even had a panic attack after looking at the books.

 

I don`t think its impossible that japan will see hyperinflation, but my point is that this will not come out of the blue sky. You will see a long time of "normal" inflation first, where it looks like everything is working like intended. Then slowly the BoJ will lose control and panicky money will flow out of the country like now in russia. Only that the BoJ is not able to raise rates at that point. (But that scenario is at least 3-10 years away)

The interest rate the government is paying is under full control of the BoJ, so i don`t see how this can be a problem in the short term. And the japanese public has enough savings to spend, its just that they had two decades of deflation now, they are sitting on big piles of cash/bonds. They didn`t even start to realize that its worthless in the very long run. So as soon as inflation comes back they will start spending more with the result that the government gets more through taxes back. They don`t even know how it feels when everything gets more expensive every year, because that is not their reality since a long time. And commodity prices (oil,gas) denominated in Yen have gone down this year, only adding to this problem.

 

Btw. the FTSE 100 will dive down below 5000 points and create lots of value opportunities in the UK in 2015.

[PatientCheetah]

I forget one last one - anything Leon Cooperman or Whitney Tilson pumps will inevitably drop like a rock, lately, they seem to be lacking sense in industry dynamics and operating trends 

[yadayada]

heh what is up with the hate for cooperman on this board?

[PatientCheetah]

heh what is up with the hate for cooperman on this board?

 

I might have sampling bias and I haven't tracked all of his recommendations from the last few years, but the ones I remembered performed abysmally, generally due to strong adverse industry headwinds. The key lesson for me is that valuation doesn't matter much if the fundamental is deteriorating quickly. The valuation mean reversion game is best played with companies with stable industry dynamics and decent/strong moats.

[mvalue]

http://archive.fortune.com/2007/08/07/markets/cooperman_market_analysis.fortune/index.htm

[scorpioncapital]

beginning of world war 3 with the players being russia, china, the middle east, and the west.

 

[mcliu]

After a very rigorous analysis of global financial markets, my prediction is that stock prices will likely fluctuate next year.  ::)

[innerscorecard]

After a very rigorous analysis of global financial markets, my prediction is that stock prices will likely fluctuate next year.  ::)

 

So you're going all in on VIX?

[rpadebet]

I don't see many people predicting what Tepper and few others are predicting. That is why i think it has a decent chance of coming true.

 

"Panic buying" might happen towards the later half of next year though if fed gives indications that it may delay rate hike or introduce QE again. Institutional investors who have under performed this year primarily due to their high cash %, are going to have to scamper to avoid losing investors.

[randomep]

beginning of world war 3 with the players being russia, china, the middle east, and the west.

 

NO NO NO

 

I predict Russia will join NATO.

 

[no_free_lunch]

beginning of world war 3 with the players being russia, china, the middle east, and the west.

 

 

You misread the title of the topic.  This was predictions for 2015, not a 2014 recap. :)

[rpadebet]

$40 oil=> disinflation=> unemployment rate rises due to energy/manufacturing give back=> fed does " mother of all QE's"=> 10y below 1.2%=> s&p 2700=> rising inequality=> Elizabeth Warren front runner for US presidency.

 

$40 oil - CHECK

disinflation & unemployment - TO FOLLOW

"mother of all QE's" - QUITE PROBABLE

 

Elizabeth Warren front runner for US presidency - YET TO BE SEEN, BUT THINGS GOING IN THAT DIRECTION WITH BIDEN TRYING NOW.

 

[rkbabang]

And the winner is:

 

After a very rigorous analysis of global financial markets, my prediction is that stock prices will likely fluctuate next year.  ::)