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Posted
45 minutes ago, moatrep said:

I think instead of investment returns you can put insurrance float growth of arguably 10b per year on the equation. That way you get 40b earnings operational and then add the investment portfolio and cash at whatever discount you like.

 

So in my case I will like to take the first 40b earnings operational at 15x, 600b.

Then add the investment portfolio at 200b, to get a nice discount for coca cola and different other businesses that I would not necesarilly like to hold.

Then the cash at face value, since we are in a high shiller ratio time, and then you get the IV.. But instead you get the cash at a 30% discount, so it's a solid hold at this prices.

 

It's an s&p500 hedged againts shiller ratio fluctuation and with shareholder friendly phillosofy. 

I used to back into it the value the opposite way, giving 100% credit to the cash and securities, and then using a conservative 12x multiplier for operational earnings.  But I like your approach better, since I also wouldn’t choose to buy and hold some of their equity holdings at current market valuations.

 

 

 

 

 

Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, charlieruane said:

Anyone have a link to the full Abel CNBC appearance? Hard to track down these clips. 

 

Greg at 13:40

Edited by MungerWunger
Posted
On 3/5/2026 at 8:15 AM, gfp said:

 

part 1: as long as the company trades in the market for more that book value, a dollar retained is worth more inside the company than paid out and taxed.  repurchases will ramp up to very large numbers as the stock price approaches book value so it may never happen or be very very rare that it trades at .99x BVPS.

 

 

I don't agree with this at all. The market does a sum-of-the-parts on Berkshire. Some of the parts (eg Geico business franchise, Sees, insurance generally) are worth WAY more than book. Cash in tbills with corporate taxes is worth a bit less than book. The weighted average is the NAV.

 

To take it to an extreme - if they added 2 trillion in cash/t-bills do you think the market cap goes up by 2.6 trillion? I sure don't. 

 

Right now the 'stuff' that is worth more than BV outweighs the cash. But the bigger you make the cash pile the less true that gets.

Posted (edited)

So looks like BRK bought back $225mm on the first day of the new round of buybacks—according to Kingswell, at least. (I haven't checked the math/proxy yet.)

 

Dare we extrapolate a monthly rate from that one-day figure...? Assuming 21 trading days per month and regular daily buybacks at that rate, that's $4.7 billion per month, way higher than the previous peak buyback rates of 2020/21 (I think the 2021 total was $27 billion). Though I suppose Berkshire's market cap is way higher now, so it's easier to put more dollars to work toward buybacks. 

 

 

Edited by charlieruane
Posted (edited)

You have a company that is generating ~$45B+ of operating income w/$350B+ of cash.  With cash accumulating so rapidly, buybacks at current level makes sense.  T-Bills are generating like $10-$12B a year of NII.  I think that is a good assumption going forward.  I for one want BRK to always have a lot of cash for distressed optionality.  OxyChem deal was awesome and really highlights how quickly we can move.  I'd rather lots of quality bolt-ons like OxyChem, Bell etc, vs. one large elephant.

Edited by ValueMaven
Posted

As we move lower and possibly enter a bear market in the near future, what a blessing to now know I can have the upmost confidence in BRK just like in the old days. Thank you Greg for your great gesture. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

Lot's of qualified candidates here (I know I'm not one of them)

 

 

 

It reads fishy, nobody get their hunger satisfied with future omelets.

Posted
16 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It reads fishy, nobody get their hunger satisfied with future omelets.

 

The OP is one of the mods. I just thought someone here might be interested.

Posted
20 hours ago, Eldad said:

As we move lower and possibly enter a bear market in the near future, what a blessing to now know I can have the upmost confidence in BRK just like in the old days. Thank you Greg for your great gesture. 

I sense good opportunities to load up on BRK are on the horizon. 😉

Posted
5 hours ago, Lotsofcoke said:

I sense good opportunities to load up on BRK are on the horizon. 😉

 

Where the hell has this guy been...hey John!  Hope you are well!  Cheers!

Posted
20 hours ago, Lotsofcoke said:

I sense good opportunities to load up on BRK are on the horizon. 😉

Can you elaborate? Like you think we are headed to global recession and brk gets dragged down with everything else? Or you think without buffet brk gets forgotten about and it just drifts out of people mind and the stock drags lower? 

Posted
1 hour ago, yesman182 said:

Can you elaborate? Like you think we are headed to global recession and brk gets dragged down with everything else? Or you think without buffet brk gets forgotten about and it just drifts out of people mind and the stock drags lower? 

 

Global uncertainty is the highest its been for sure since Covid, new captain at the helm that has indicated that BRK is ready and willing (and has been) buying back, BRK trading at buyback levels and potentially lower, BRK sitting on ~380 in cash,  potential for investment opportunities in addition to buybacks...whats not to like here, could get sexy. As a longtime BRK holder and a long runway ahead, either scenario you described would be great.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Blugolds said:

 

Global uncertainty is the highest its been for sure since Covid, new captain at the helm that has indicated that BRK is ready and willing (and has been) buying back, BRK trading at buyback levels and potentially lower, BRK sitting on ~380 in cash,  potential for investment opportunities in addition to buybacks...whats not to like here, could get sexy. As a longtime BRK holder and a long runway ahead, either scenario you described would be great.

Yeah I agree. My personal perdition is that at these prices they buyback stock at the rate they are earning cash. I suspect they buyback around 10bn per quarter. 

Posted

I’d be fine seeing Berkshire languish for a few years while cash keeps coming in and Greg does his thing with capital flowing to wholly owned subs and buybacks steadily pecking away.

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