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Progressive Corp. said Thursday it recorded property losses and expenses of $1.4 billion in September alone from multiple U.S. landfalls of Hurricane Ian.

Cautioning that the loss figure could change materially as more claims are submitted, the automobile and home insurer said in a regulatory filing that it incurred $760 million of catastrophe losses in September, after the effects of reinsurance.

 

Will be interesting to see how Geico has fared.

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I agree this is a good acquisition of both assets and human capital. Do we think Brandon will eventually replace Ajit in the "envelope" or as one of the two co-CEO's (with Abel)? Will also be interesting to see how the investments of Allegheny are changed once they are under BH control. Will they be able to move to more equity vs fixed income (allowed by regulators)? Any synergies with the operating companies in Allegheny Capital?

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I've been an Allegany shareholder for a long time.  I think, but am not sure, that they have a "Markel Ventures" type thing going on also.  I think this part of their business is about half (based on revenue) the size of the insurance division.

 

Investments are about double equity too, so some focus and maybe a change or two will come from the investment portfolio.  Or Buffett may like what they have and are doing, I don't know.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Should be an interesting release tomorrow.  Lot of events that impacted our company this past quarter.  Curious to see what cash was used, and to see if the buybacks picked up a bit with the stock price hitting the 260's during the quarter.

Aside from the stock positions, Insurance and BNSF could drag. 

May get a chance to buy more in the 260-270 range before year end.

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14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

And the likely equity-accounting of Occidental (I think)

It’s tough to equity account for OXY when they report their quarter later than you do. If BRK decides to use that method they may need to do it on a one quarter delay. 

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Q3 results are out.  Another quarter with only $1B in repurchases will disappoint some.  Insurance float up $3B to $150 Billion (will rise by $13.5 Billion to $163.5 with Alleghany included).  GEICO had $600 million of losses from Hurricane Ian but the biggest problem for GEICO is that customers are leaving when it increases rates, and it isn't even increasing rates as much as it needs to.  GEICO has now been putting up underwriting losses steadily and has slashed advertising and expense ratio.  Berkshire Reinsurance only had $1.9 Billion in Ian losses - a very good result showing that Berkshire has really pulled back from Cat reinsurance.  Companywide, Ian was a $3.4 Billion pretax, $2.7 Billion after tax loss.  BRK's Q3 effective tax rate is over 37% - a short term blip but I guess they can stop writing articles about how BRK will be the biggest loser from the 15% minimum tax on book profit bill.

 

OXY will be equity method accounted but with a one quarter lag, so Q4 will include a partial Q3's worth of OXY earnings.  No OXY earnings included in this release.  Gains on OXY stock are not going to increase our book value going forward, similar to Kraft (if Kraft ever had gains..).  The OXY warrants will still be marked to market (or more accurately 'marked to model') each quarter, so those gains will show up.

 

Looks like Berkshire didn't change the Apple holdings and purchased an additional $880m-ish worth of Chevron stock.  Berkshire sold $4.7 Billion of cost basis holdings from the Banks, Insurance & Finance category in the quarter.  It wasn't BAC or AXP obviously.

 

Berkshire's equity put derivatives are almost completely behind us.  Berkshire's corporate borrowings are a thing of beauty with the foreign currency borrowings all looking like yet another version of negative cost float over their lifetimes.

 

$11.6 Billion in cash flow from operations for Q3.

 

 

 

Edited by gfp
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9 minutes ago, Thelilyinvestor said:

Seems like they net purchased around 4B of stocks in the quarter +1B in buybacks. I was hoping they would be a bit more aggressive with the markets crashing.

 

Yes it looks like $8.977 Billion in equity purchases and $5.299 Billion in equity sales in the quarter ($3.678 Billion in net purchases).  Somewhere around $880m in CVX shares were added and we could figure out from the public filings what the total OXY purchases were for the Q.  They sold stuff out of Banks, Insurance & Finance category - so that could be any of  Citi, BK, USB, MA, V, AON, ALLY, MKL, MURGY, Allianz, etc..

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WEB does not think BRK is particularly cheap right now (relative to intrinsic value).  Greg Abel is willing to buy though.

 

In the table below, the last column shows pct of all outstanding shares repurchased in a given month.

 

image.thumb.png.c5fff0a8fdc993dd1097dbe114112b44.png

Edited by crs223
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2 minutes ago, crs223 said:

WEB does not think BRK is particularly cheap right now (relative to intrinsic value).  Greg Abel is willing to buy though.

 

In the table below, the last column shows pct of all outstanding shares repurchased in a given month.

 

image.thumb.png.c5fff0a8fdc993dd1097dbe114112b44.png

 

There can be a multitude of reasons that they arent buying back as much as some would like, some reasons we can probably speculate on and some we may never know (potential deals in the works that fall through etc). 

 

Its like when BRK started to groom shareholders mentally to get away from that hard 1.2x BV number everyone wants to know when BRK is "on sale" and with the new accounting and BV becoming less and less relevant everyone clings to Buffetts buyback numbers as indication of what "cheap" is. I've never really cared how much Omaha buys, absolutely I love buybacks and there is nothing I like more than to see BRK price drop, be able to load up, and see that Omaha has done the same...but if they dont I never really think twice about it because to me it is indicative of nothing significant. The only time it grabs my attention are the "bigger" buyback periods ie. May 2020 but many thought they were late to that game, and when Omaha was buying back heavily, so was I, didnt take a genius to know those were good times to be buying and sooner or later in the future it would look like a deal, so again, didnt change my behavior and didnt make an impact on what I thought. Too many variables, many often unknown to the avg investor to put a ton of weight into how much BRK buys back. Point is, just because BRK isnt buying back as much as investors would like, doesnt necessarily mean he doesnt think its cheap or a decent deal. 

 

I would say the same for Abel...I dont think he is concerned with 6mo-12mo price fluctuations. Greg buying may mean he thinks its a decent deal and it may not, if you are never planning to sell what difference does it make if you buy +/- 10% in the short term market gyration. Given his situation/position imagine if he would have gone all in on BRK back in 2007/2008 before BRK got whacked...looking back now would it have mattered...

 

 

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1 minute ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Great thread by Bloomstran. He is however wrong about BAC sales in Q3. There were no sales of BAC stock accordign to my math. 

 

yeah he is usually wrong about a lot of little details.  I think it is because he can't edit tweets and fires them off in a hurry.  As most know, Berkshire is over 10% on BAC and would have been required to disclose any sales within a few days.  No sales of American Express either.  Berkshire did sell stuff in the category though, but it could be quite a few different securities.

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