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Fill in the blank with the obvious answer for BRK.A


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When it first became public, it's at $12 per share and no one expected it'd reach $100.

 

Then when it reached $100, no one expected it'd reach $1,000.

 

Then when it reached $1,000, no one expected it'd reach $10,000.

 

Then when it reached $10,000, no one expected it'd reach $100,000.

 

Then when it reached $100,000, now no one expects it'd reach $........ per share (you can fill in the blank here! LOL :-))

 

Enjoy the fun and the bull markets hitting historic highs each week! :-)  It's very painful for value investors, including yours truly here as every sale seemed to be premature this year :-(

 

How do you folks fight or ease such pain?  Any help is appreciated before I spend a fortune on a psychiatrist!

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Guest longinvestor

When it first became public, it's at $12 per share and no one expected it'd reach $100.

 

Then when it reached $100, no one expected it'd reach $1,000.

 

Then when it reached $1,000, no one expected it'd reach $10,000.

 

Then when it reached $10,000, no one expected it'd reach $100,000.

 

Then when it reached $100,000, now no one expects it'd reach $........ per share (you can fill in the blank here! LOL :-))

 

Enjoy the fun and the bull markets hitting historic highs each week! :-)  It's very painful for value investors, including yours truly here as every sale seemed to be premature this year :-(

 

How do you folks fight or ease such pain?  Any help is appreciated before I spend a fortune on a psychiatrist!

 

Here's some color

 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

 

Before we fill in that blank, here's more color,

 

From 2006, 10%

From 2010, 17%

 

And still more color,

 

If bought Jan-Dec 2009, avg price of 89k, 21%

 

Munger on last 5 year performance of BRK, "if this is failure, I'll have more of it"

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But I'm still in pain  :(

 

Buy buy buy before BRK-A is at $100,000,000,000!

 

I sold most of my Brk.B.... because I ask myself, comon, how high can it go? Sure it'll do fine, but I don't think it can beat the market averages by much. If it can, soon it'll be the largest market cap in the world.

 

I remember when I started investing, cisco beat the street every quarter for like 30 quarters, and I bought it at $50, 14yrs ago! I learned the hard way, don't blindly trust streaks.

 

I know, I am like that other poster who isn't going to value investing heaven.....

 

 

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But I'm still in pain  :(

 

Buy buy buy before BRK-A is at $100,000,000,000!

 

I sold most of my Brk.B.... because I ask myself, comon, how high can it go? Sure it'll do fine, but I don't think it can beat the market averages by much. If it can, soon it'll be the largest market cap in the world.

 

I remember when I started investing, cisco beat the street every quarter for like 30 quarters, and I bought it at $50, 14yrs ago! I learned the hard way, don't blindly trust streaks.

 

I know, I am like that other poster who isn't going to value investing heaven.....

 

 

I hold some B's just so I can be a part owner in a wonderful company.

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But I'm still in pain  :(

 

Buy buy buy before BRK-A is at $100,000,000,000!

 

I sold most of my Brk.B.... because I ask myself, comon, how high can it go? Sure it'll do fine, but I don't think it can beat the market averages by much. If it can, soon it'll be the largest market cap in the world.

 

I remember when I started investing, cisco beat the street every quarter for like 30 quarters, and I bought it at $50, 14yrs ago! I learned the hard way, don't blindly trust streaks.

 

I know, I am like that other poster who isn't going to value investing heaven.....

 

Just in case it wasn't clear.  I was kidding.

 

I have you beat, once upon a time (August 2000 to be precise) I bought Cisco at $66.

 

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But I'm still in pain  :(

 

Buy buy buy before BRK-A is at $100,000,000,000!

 

I sold most of my Brk.B.... because I ask myself, comon, how high can it go? Sure it'll do fine, but I don't think it can beat the market averages by much. If it can, soon it'll be the largest market cap in the world.

 

I remember when I started investing, cisco beat the street every quarter for like 30 quarters, and I bought it at $50, 14yrs ago! I learned the hard way, don't blindly trust streaks.

 

I know, I am like that other poster who isn't going to value investing heaven.....

 

Just in case it wasn't clear.  I was kidding.

 

I have you beat, once upon a time (August 2000 to be precise) I bought Cisco at $66.

 

seriously, this question was going out to all the fund managers and others who are long Brk, period.

 

Cisco at $50 or $66, whatever, so long as we learned our lesson.... that's what's important. right?

 

 

 

 

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It isn't about whether it will reach $1 million, only a fool doubts that; however, it is all about how long it will take. 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

100k to 192k in almost 8 years

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today.   

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It isn't about whether it will reach $1 million, only a fool doubts that; however, it is all about how long it will take. 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

100k to 192k in almost 8 years

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today. 

 

And what is the return then? And would you be satisfied with that?

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It isn't about whether it will reach $1 million, only a fool doubts that; however, it is all about how long it will take. 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

100k to 192k in almost 8 years

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today. 

 

And what is the return then? And would you be satisfied with that?

 

1k to 10k in 9 years was 29.16% average annual return

10k to 100k in 13 years was 19.38% average annual return

100k to 192k in almost 8 years  is below 9% average annual return

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today.  Projects to about 8.5% to 10.5%

 

Would I be satisfied with 8.5% to 10.5% average annual return?  Absolutely not.  Although I understand how some find it completely acceptable.   

 

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Guest longinvestor

It isn't about whether it will reach $1 million, only a fool doubts that; however, it is all about how long it will take. 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

100k to 192k in almost 8 years

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today. 

 

And what is the return then? And would you be satisfied with that?

 

1k to 10k in 9 years was 29.16% average annual return

10k to 100k in 13 years was 19.38% average annual return

100k to 192k in almost 8 years  is below 9% average annual return

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today.  Projects to about 8.5% to 10.5%

Would I be satisfied with 8.5% to 10.5% average annual return?  Absolutely not.  Although I understand how some find it completely acceptable. 

 

You have chosen 2006 as the starting point for your projections.

 

I have a couple of other projections (everyone has a projection about the future, don't we all?)

 

If an investor put money into BRK and left it there,

 

Since 1983, the $1000 has turned to the $192000 of today, implying an ~ 18% return. At this rate, $1M in 2025

Since 1992, $ 10,000 has turned into the $192,000 of today, implying a ~ 15% return. At this rate, $1M in 2025

 

Since 2010, $ 100,000 has turned into the $192,000 of today, implying an ~18% return. At this rate, $1M in 2024

 

Forget about projections, I've actually realized a 16% return, by buying BRK first in 2006 and then buying a whole bunch in 2009.

 

I'm sure there are a many CoBF message board posters who will no doubt produce far better results than this into the future.

 

But I'm quite satisfied with what I've actually gotten and expect to remain satisfied going forward. This has less to do with how Mr. Market values BRK, rather there is the sense of a real lollapalooza going on at Berkshire of late. Copious amounts of value is being created as we speak.

 

 

 

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How many would have kept it when they bought it at 12 and it hit 500 or 15  or 19000?  I still am sad that i let a broker talk me out of buying it at 620.  There must be a reason they are called "brokers"  ;D

 

Understand how you'd be feeling.  Even today, if you listen to so many people out there, (just like your broker in Oct 1982, correct?), one will be talked out of buying Berkshire. Trust in management works at Berkshire like none other.

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How many would have kept it when they bought it at 12 and it hit 500 or 15  or 19000?  I still am sad that i let a broker talk me out of buying it at 620.  There must be a reason they are called "brokers"  ;D

 

Whoa, back up the train here, what are we talking about? Brk.A or Brk.B? you mentioned 12,15,19000, 620.......

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It isn't about whether it will reach $1 million, only a fool doubts that; however, it is all about how long it will take. 

1k to 10k in 9 years

10k to 100k in 13 years

100k to 192k in almost 8 years

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today. 

 

And what is the return then? And would you be satisfied with that?

 

1k to 10k in 9 years was 29.16% average annual return

10k to 100k in 13 years was 19.38% average annual return

100k to 192k in almost 8 years  is below 9% average annual return

 

It could very well be 15 to 20 years from today.  Projects to about 8.5% to 10.5%

Would I be satisfied with 8.5% to 10.5% average annual return?  Absolutely not.  Although I understand how some find it completely acceptable. 

 

You have chosen 2006 as the starting point for your projections.

 

I have a couple of other projections (everyone has a projection about the future, don't we all?)

 

If an investor put money into BRK and left it there,

 

Since 1983, the $1000 has turned to the $192000 of today, implying an ~ 18% return. At this rate, $1M in 2025

Since 1992, $ 10,000 has turned into the $192,000 of today, implying a ~ 15% return. At this rate, $1M in 2025

 

Since 2010, $ 100,000 has turned into the $192,000 of today, implying an ~18% return. At this rate, $1M in 2024

 

Forget about projections, I've actually realized a 16% return, by buying BRK first in 2006 and then buying a whole bunch in 2009.

 

I'm sure there are a many CoBF message board posters who will no doubt produce far better results than this into the future.

 

But I'm quite satisfied with what I've actually gotten and expect to remain satisfied going forward. This has less to do with how Mr. Market values BRK, rather there is the sense of a real lollapalooza going on at Berkshire of late. Copious amounts of value is being created as we speak.

 

Just to be clear.  I didn't purposefully choose 2006 to make returns look lower, that was the year it broke 100,000, which was from the original post.  Nor was in any way trying to suggest someone should be dissatisfied owning BRK. 

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Preaching to the choir here, but given:

 

- The difficulty of finding bargains now

- Berkshire's reasonable valuation

- The ark it represents if macro stuff goes awry.....

 

I'm thrilled to have 60% of my portfolio here, expecting 8%+ over time.

 

That's all I need, and I'm too lazy and scared to do much else.

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