What stocks will make their owners rich over the next generation?

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, buylowersellhigh said:

None of these look optically cheap; Assume you are not thinking of multiple compression here.  They just have long runways for growth, I assume.  

 

@buylowersellhigh,

 

What has 'muliple compression' with anything to do, if one is really investing for the long term?

[Spekulatius]

13 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@buylowersellhigh,

 

What has 'muliple compression' with anything to do, if one is really investing for the long term?

You are invested in NVO, so you should have a pretty good idea what it can do to your returns. Here is another one:

 

Edited November 2, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I think a company like BYD could get much bigger. @Spekulatiusmentioned Auto partner the other day. It has high insider ownership and I can see a European Auto zone situation maybe playing out one day when they stop going for growth. I am very bad at jumping on the next big thing train. For some reason I skew extremely skeptical. 

[DooDiligence]

37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

You are invested in NVO, so you should have a pretty good idea what it can do to your returns. Here is another one:

 

 

Edwards Lifesciences has been a victim of multiple compression too.

[Spekulatius]

3 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Edwards Lifesciences has been a victim of multiple compression too.

Slowing growth and uncertainly about the future does this to stocks.

[Spekulatius]

35 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

I think a company like BYD could get much bigger. @Spekulatiusmentioned Auto partner the other day. It has high insider ownership and I can see a European Auto zone situation maybe playing out one day when they stop going for growth. I am very bad at jumping on the next big thing train. For some reason I skew extremely skeptical. 

Yes, I agree on BYD. I think they will likely be in new markets in 10 years. I own Auto Partner. I think the stock is very cheap and the growth runway is long. They will need to increase their EBIT margin over time to become really successful. I bought my first shares in 2022 and recently added more. I can easily see this being a 3 bagger in 10 years.

[WayWardCloud]

10 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

My candidates are: Amrize (I own), GE/Safran/AIrbus (I own all three), MCO (I own), V (I own), Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (I own), JOE (I own), RYAN (I own), Fairfax (I own), MCEM (I own and it is very illiquid)

 

I'd love to hear your reasons for preferring RYAN (wholesale) to the big brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, BRO) if you don't mind sharing. RYAN seems like a bet on the continued growth of E&S contracts as a percentage of the overall insurance mix. I have no idea how to predict how long that trend will continue and what happens if it reverses but RYAN feels less diversified in their income stream so perhaps more risky.

Edited November 2, 2025 by WayWardCloud

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, buylowersellhigh said:

None of these look optically cheap; Assume you are not thinking of multiple compression here.  They just have long runways for growth, I assume.  

Growth in revenues and margin expansion + good capital allocation.

[Marco Van Basten]

25 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said:

 

I'd love to hear your reasons for preferring RYAN (wholesale) to the big brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, BRO) if you don't mind sharing. RYAN seems like a bet on the continued growth of E&S contracts as a percentage of the overall insurance mix. I have no idea how to predict how long that trend will continue and what happens if it reverses but RYAN feels less diversified in their income stream so perhaps more risky.

Three reasons: a) I spoke with someone who owns (with numerous partners) a large insurance brokerage firm, and he told me that thought that the most defensible model was RYAN's, and he also thought that it would have the fastest growth in the long run; b) RYAN is the only one that has had meaningful insider buying - Pat Ryan bought $15MM worth of shares recently; c) Wells Fargo analyst who seems very, very good thinks that RYAN will have the best organic revenue growth of the bunch, and yet the multiple is roughly the same as the rest of the field.  

[WayWardCloud]

24 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Three reasons: a) I spoke with someone who owns (with numerous partners) a large insurance brokerage firm, and he told me that thought that the most defensible model was RYAN's, and he also thought that it would have the fastest growth in the long run; b) RYAN is the only one that has had meaningful insider buying - Pat Ryan bought $15MM worth of shares recently; c) Wells Fargo analyst who seems very, very good thinks that RYAN will have the best organic revenue growth of the bunch, and yet the multiple is roughly the same as the rest of the field.  

Thank you very much!

 

You and Dealraker both recommend the Wells Fargo analysts so I'd be curious to put together 10 years of their price targets and see if they do outperform a simple buy and hold of the entire basket. If the alpha is substantial it could be a beautiful strategy to constantly hop onto the better short term horse inside a tax free account while maintaining a constant exposure to the industry. If anyone has access to this kind of data, maybe via Bloomberg or Factset, message me  Happy to share the results here of course.

 

Here are the latest price targets and implied upside from Elyse Greenspan.

AJG and AON seem like her current favorites.

 

Marsh and McLeanne $212 +18%

Aon $448 +37%

Arthur J Gallagher $366 +40%

Brown&Brown $92 +15%

Willis Towers Watson $382 +22%

Ryan Specialty $64 +18%

Baldwin Insurance $28 +27%

Edited November 3, 2025 by WayWardCloud

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Three reasons: a) I spoke with someone who owns (with numerous partners) a large insurance brokerage firm, and he told me that thought that the most defensible model was RYAN's, and he also thought that it would have the fastest growth in the long run; b) RYAN is the only one that has had meaningful insider buying - Pat Ryan bought $15MM worth of shares recently; c) Wells Fargo analyst who seems very, very good thinks that RYAN will have the best organic revenue growth of the bunch, and yet the multiple is roughly the same as the rest of the field.  

I too like RYAN, especially with the recent months' sell-off. The only thing I'm still getting comfortable with is their Up-C liability. Either way, this one is going on the slow accumulate list while I get comfortable with their execution. 

[hasilp89]

15 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

RYAN seems like a bet on the continued growth of E&S contracts as a percentage of the overall insurance mix. I have no idea how to predict how long that trend will continue and what happens if it reverses but RYAN feels less diversified in their income stream so perhaps more risky.

I put down some thoughts in the broker thread. similar to @Marco Van Basten a friend in the industry had for a few years commented that he likes the specialty players. When Pat Ryan bought $15M of shares he told me to take another look.

 

The trend has been a move from admitted to E&S - 8% in 2000 to 24% in 2024. To understand if it will continue ask why has it happened. Primarily due to increased risk complexity and severity + limitations of admitted markets based on state by state regulations and limits to rate increase approval. So is the expectation that this changes? Will the world become less complex as it relates to risks that need to be insured (I'd say no). Will the admitted market open up quickly to the emerging risks and higher premiums + more complex underwriting structures in the world (again i'd say no). I'm looking for wholes in the thesis but specialty brokerage appears to have good fundamentals and RYAN is in the middle of it. I also like the MGA part of the business (similar thoughts as to niche risks that need specialist to underwrite) and the general trend of panel consolidation that will benefit large incumbents.

 

 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

With the current drawdown I was looking at FND. I know it was a popular stock because of some Munger comments previously it has been cut in half since then. I do think they have a lot of potential to open more stores and out compete the small flooring/tile shops. @dealraker I was wondering as someone who has worked in building supplies if you had an opinion on a company like this. As someone who lives in WNC I can easily see a FND wiping out the majority of our small flooring and tile suppliers. Their shops aren’t usually very nice and are often understaffed and lack choices. 

[dealraker]

4 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

With the current drawdown I was looking at FND. I know it was a popular stock because of some Munger comments previously it has been cut in half since then. I do think they have a lot of potential to open more stores and out compete the small flooring/tile shops. @dealraker I was wondering as someone who has worked in building supplies if you had an opinion on a company like this. As someone who lives in WNC I can easily see a FND wiping out the majority of our small flooring and tile suppliers. Their shops aren’t usually very nice and are often understaffed and lack choices. 

When'sthepaintdry? I am quite fond of the FND business idea and model short of knowing the negatives you mention above.  I became aware of it while listening to a financial podcast.  I have done no investigation into anything financial yet about FND but it would be welcomed if we had some start that process.   If it turns out to be a somewhat cheezy low quality thing then that's just that.

Edited November 4, 2025 by dealraker