Space X

[Dalal.Holdings]

Custom orbits seems like a good edge to have for this co as ride-sharing doesn't optimize the orbit. This company seems more focused on getting satellites up, they even have a platform to develop satellites, sell them to the customer, and launch them for them (Photon). Neutron seems like it will move the game to constellations. Unlike SpaceX, they seem to be more of a "do more with less" type of culture which I think can keep costs low and competitive. Looking at total amount of capital they've raised thus far and all that they've accomplished, I think the results speak loudly.

 

Ignoring SpaceX for a moment, I can't understand why SPCE would have a market cap of twice this thing. I think the accomplishments of this company are far beyond Virgin Galactic. And they have customers and revenue today...

 

Overall it's probably one of the most attractive SPACs I've seen (I do not think highly of SPACs)...at this price and EV of just $4.1B, it could easily be a target for a big firm or some egomaniac billionaire (there are plenty) looking for a platform to get into orbit quickly.

 

Edit: the EV of $4.1B (market cap of $4.8B - ~750M cash) is implied by a $10 price for VACQ. Adjust accordingly.

[Ice77]

It is a prized asset. I was surprised when I heard it was going to be listed this early. VCs don’t usually share the spoils of such assets this early with the public. Even the Russians rocket scientists admire it. But people expect miracles and a fully formed business model when it’s barely the 2nd innings of the private space race. But for the DA timing amid a correction, it would be trading lot higher

[ValueArb]

Custom orbits seems like a good edge to have for this co as ride-sharing doesn't optimize the orbit. This company seems more focused on getting satellites up, they even have a platform to develop satellites, sell them to the customer, and launch them for them (Photon). Neutron seems like it will move the game to constellations. Unlike SpaceX, they seem to be more of a "do more with less" type of culture which I think can keep costs low and competitive. Looking at total amount of capital they've raised thus far and all that they've accomplished, I think the results speak loudly.

 

Ignoring SpaceX for a moment, I can't understand why SPCE would have a market cap of twice this thing. I think the accomplishments of this company are far beyond Virgin Galactic. And they have customers and revenue today...

 

Overall it's probably one of the most attractive SPACs I've seen (I do not think highly of SPACs)...at this price and EV of just $4.1B, it could easily be a target for a big firm or some egomaniac billionaire (there are plenty) looking for a platform to get into orbit quickly.

 

Edit: the EV of $4.1B (market cap of $4.8B - ~750M cash) is implied by a $10 price for VACQ. Adjust accordingly.

 

Don’t get me going on Virgin Galactic. Imagine naming your space company “Galactic” when its technology could never even achieve orbit. Oops, I got going...

[Spekulatius]

I agree that Rocket Labs looks great compared to Virgin Galactic, but that’s not a high hurdle. Rocket Labs is an interesting company to watch for sure.

[scorpioncapital]

wouldn't it be more lucrative to invest in use-case space businesses , like subscription service blacksky that gets recurring revenue instead of one time launches?

[fareastwarriors]

Who's next?

 

https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-inspiration4-updates

 

SpaceX successfully launched the first all-civilian mission to orbit Earth on Sept. 15, 2021 using a used Crew Dragon capsule and veteran Falcon 9 rocket 

[Morgan]

5 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Who's next?

 

https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-inspiration4-updates

 

SpaceX successfully launched the first all-civilian mission to orbit Earth on Sept. 15, 2021 using a used Crew Dragon capsule and veteran Falcon 9 rocket 

This is so awesome! 
 

Another amazing feat by SpaceX! 

[ValueArb]

Starship test launch #2 was amazing. The water fountain fixed their pad issues, all engines worked nominally (for a while),  they actually successfully performed hot staging (which I thought was a stupid idea to try this early in the test launch cycles), and nearly reached their target suborbital velocity.  Overall great progress.

 

What didn't work was landing the booster thought its explosion was incredible. It was able to do the flip maneuver to return and relight its engines for a few seconds before they failed and the FTS (automatic flight abort system) detected the failures, concluded the booster wasn't performing to plan so blew it apart. Watching Scott Manley's post mortem he thinks it was some kind of water hammer effect in the fuel lines that ripped them open and caused the engine failures. I  don't know if the effect was caused by the deceleration from hot staging or if they can just slow down the flip maneuver.

 

 

The Starship itself made it almost to the end of its fuel load before failing. Scott points out at the end you can see a puff on video from some gas leak, then the LOX gauge starts emptying faster than the Methane gauge, so it appears to have been a leak from the LOX tanks. Again when it ran out of propellant early the FTS detected it was off its planned velocity/course and blew it apart. I would think it's probably not caused by the hot staging blowback opening a hole because it occurred 5 minutes later, but I'm not rocket surgeon. Also they are probably going to need to upgrade the Starship FTS as long range photographs seemed to show a pretty big chunk survived the self destruct.  Outside of that looks like a cursory FAA review and next test launch within a couple months.

[Morgan]

I've been waiting for this and this was nuts. More and more progress with every launch! Pretty soon there are gonna be 1000 people on the way to Mars every week, plus supply launches and eventually developments in the solar system. This century is going absolutely incredible!