Mephistopheles

Mix of atm and otm ($500). I did one round of atm already (bought and sold for up 40%). Will keep doing so to reduce my overall cost basis for the $500s. Just bizarre to see it just sit there while everything else keeps climbing to @gfp's point. What strike and price for the puts? I think I may sell some too to help finance this.

The good thing about Berkshire options is the IV is insanely low, but every now and then the stock will have a violent move upwards. Usually after sitting around at the same price for ages. I've made a killing on the calls on a number of occasions.

+1 Indulging myself with some mid May calls. Hoping for a Q1/AGM boost

Genuine question, why does a hedge fund manager need a family office? He's a full time investor...why aren't his family funds managed by himself? I don't think Buffett has a family office.

I still have my November CL futures, now at $78. Day after day, more barrels are taken away from the world. The other thought I've had is that the uncertainty about timing probably has a negative affect on capex (bullish for price). Everything in the short to medium term hinges on the strait and war, which may all resolve in the next day or the next month, nobody knows. So what is the incentive here for growth capex when there is no clarity on the supply shock?

Do the Trump folks: 1) Think Trump is unhinged, but that he’s better than the alternative or 2) Think he’s not unhinged

What’re your thoughts on global inventory depletion? Those inventories need to be refilled perhaps more than the levels they were originally at. Any thoughts on oil futures 3-6 months out?

Yea. 10mn barrels is pretty significant supply destruction. How bad will the demand side get? During Covid it was 20mn and that’s an extreme. 08 financial crisis was like 2mn. Are you able to buy Brent on IBKR? I can’t seem to find it, only WTI

Yea I saw that I feel the same way. I have October WTI for the same reason. Another day, another 10 mn barrels of supply lost.

The way I see is that, $70 is nothing inflation adjusted, so demand destruction is not super likely. On the supply side: Even if there is a “ceasefire”, the risk of it falling apart is still there. Insurance /shipping rates are bound to stay up. Recency bias suggests it’ll be quick like the Ukraine war, oil hasn’t been painfully high for a while. The oil crashes of Covid and shale are on everyone’s mind, including the producers, and their shareholders. For a while at least, before the capex cycle turns again. But that won’t happen until the futures reflect a more accurate reality, and that’s when you sell! @Spekulatius I agree, I sold half of my PBRA at like $16-17…funny how it’s moved up last few weeks but my Oct futures haven’t budged @Dalal.Holdings agreed on him moving more troops there..writing appears on the wall.

Every single day the strait remains closed, that’s what like 10mn barrels lost? Now the Houthi’s are joining the war, so same shit expected in the Red Sea. For the experts - why are oil futures only $70 for October, just a handful of months away? Feel like it’s a good hedge to buy these. Thoughts?

Love reading stuff like this

Bought more UNH. Down on a big up day. Maybe there is a leak and im a patsy, but the finalized Medicare advantage rate increase for ‘27 is due to come out in early April. Stock dropped big a couple months ago because the prelim guidance from CMS was a much smaller increase (0.09%) than expected. So if the final number is 1,2,3% or what not, we may see a massive jump in the stock. Recently one of the top guys at CMS admitted that an already hard market will turn harder without a proper rate increase. Long term UNH is still solid, so it’s a reasonable bet at this price. Go with options if you wanna gamble on the final number in early April and/or Q1 earnings at the end of month.

Not to bring up investing, but is the US really a net beneficiary of the war on the oil side? I know they are with nat gas. But aren’t we a net oil importer because we don’t produce enough heavy oil?

The people dunking on Mueller are proving that they are part of a cult. The Mueller report supported that there was no Russia collusion! It was a win for your team. Not to mention it was Trump’s DOJ that appointed him. The extremists on both side hate Mueller, and that makes his report legitimate and excellent imo!

They (the Islamic government and IRGC) aren’t rational in that they’re a death cult. If we assassinated every other senior member of the Russian government and military, they’d come to the negotiating table. Here, they’ll keep getting killed, because they value death more than we value life. Sure, that’s rational in their world view, but pragmatically it’s not.

Thanks, I’ll check it out. The Iran/Iraq isn’t an analogy, it’s just meant to show that these guys don’t back down no matter what. Civilian or military or govt casualties notwithstanding. I don’t think they are rational fascists. Putin is a rational fascist. These guys are an Islamic death cult, they don’t care about their civilians, nor themselves. A rational actor would come to the bargaining table after 80% of their government gets wiped out. But they don’t, because of the benefits of martyrdom

100% I’m a bit concerned that this war will spiral… Trump wants to win the midterms, Iran wants Trump to lose. Purely politically speaking, Trump needs to “declare victory and leave”, OR get the American public to support the war…what are the odds we have a terrorist attack or assassination attempt prior to the midterms? Of course, the odds of terrorism have gone up anyway as this war is awakening the jihadists. Meanwhile, Iran has two things to gain from keeping the strait effectively closed: 1) revenge on US /Israel, but also 2) higher oil prices for much needed revenues. They’re not rational actors, they don’t care how many of their civilians die. Check out the Iran-Iraq war where troves of teenage boys were sent to their deaths and Khomenei reluctantly accepted a cease fire after 8 years of bloodbath. Not to mention, the IRGC is not operating as a single cohesive unit. You only need one bad faction to ruin it. So, Trump if he wants any shot at the midterms, and Israel, if they want to keep Trump engaged, can either convince us Americans to support them, or become victorious. But the latter is hard to do given their irrational opponent. So the war will go on, oil will stay high, and we will see terrorism (real or manufactured). Maybe we even see a nuclear bomb go off. Or we are being sandbagged and we get the Shah back.

The govt doesn’t even need to do an IPO. They don’t even need to do NYSE up listing. All that has to be done is an amendment that reverts the PSPA back to a 10% dividend yield for the senior prefs and no further increase in the liquidation preference. Last time with Mnuchin they stopped the senior preferred dividend all together but then chose to up the liquidation preference with all profits…inexplicable and inexcusable.

https://x.com/huffpost/status/2034802988527530071?s=46 Soooo not a cult

Yes I did see that. Touché. However you cannot deny the brutality in many other cases. What are your thoughts on what happened like 3 years ago with that woman who got beaten by the fashion police because she wouldn’t wear her burka? No doubt that Trump is an authoritarian, but I just don’t want to turn into Iran. I’d much rather live in Israel vs Iran. How about you?

Is this fake news? I recall a poster here talking about how great life is in Iran and how the government supports the people or something. Genuine question

Yes it’s been bad, been buying on way down. Let’s see!

Well, you don't need much of a military if you can just keep droning every other or every 5th ship that goes through the strait. Frankly, I'm surprised that the Arabs never figured out a plan B to a prolonged strait closure. More pipelines or what not. It's kind of shocking that all of these years, 20% of the world's oil has moved through a tiny bottle neck that's controlled by a terrorist regime.

Everyone seems to think Hormuz will open up soon, given the futures curve. I've been thinking about the Iran hostage crisis where the Iranians supposedly wanted to tank Jimmy Carter's re-election chances so they waited until after the election to free the hostages. I can see parallels here where Iran refuses to cooperate with the Strait of Hormuz until the midterms to screw Trump. If the Dems win both houses, they can put serious restraints on this war and of course on arms sales to Israel. They don't mind sacrificing their own people, so they won't care if Trump keeps bombing them. But also, higher oil prices may mean more services for the people, thus less enthusiasm from the anti govt protestors. U.S./Israel has decapitated much of Iran's leadership. But the people still want a new government. So what happens if the war ends tomorrow and oil goes back to $60? That means less revenue for Iran and thus angrier public. Why not just keep oil at $100-200, feed the people, and bank on a blue wave in the midterms?