TwoCitiesCapital

For me - its an amount where I could tell my boss to "fuck off", get fired, and not have to worry about finding another job. Already have enough that I could take a year or two off - but that isn't the goal and ultimately may actually hinder my ability to return to the workforce as gaps aren't viewed kindly. My retirement is already set - now its workings towards having enough to quit permanently or quit for long enough to find something more fulfilling to take its place.

$3-5 million in taxable savings

Lol - Honestly - good middle ground. Don't go whole hog. Just 11x your DCA

Historically - the 2-year treasury is a pretty good predictor of the Fed - but is some what volatile itself. It peaked in 2023 and has mostly been range bound since, but with lower highs and lower lows. The trend is flat-to-down.

Would lol I don't think Bukele is full-Saylor yet, but I believe he is still buying 1 BTC every day for the Treasury. Most businesses weren't accepting/processing transactions in BTC anyways, and the ones that want to still can. In ~3.5 years when this loan needs to be rolled though, I expect El Salvador's BTC stack to be in excess of the notional. So the question comes do they pay the IMF back and begin life as an actual sovereign nation OR do they keep stacking sats and voluntarily comply with western world direction in expectations of longer term profits on BTC.

That's exactly what they did - and were like in the 99th percentile of actively managed equity funds pre-2022. Not entirely sure where things stand now given the recent 3-year returns, but still outperforming by 0.3% on a rolling 10-year basis and by ~4% per annum since 2007. Not bad for a bunch of dudes who just circle jerk for pension plans.

So we're told... And yet, CPI-U is still sub 3%. Perhaps the trend is reaccelerating, but spending a few months between 2.5-2.7% hardly screams danger zone to me. My bias is for the intermediate outlook to be lower rates - especially with industrial activity/manufacturing shitting the bed again.

Isn't it weird that those bond guys at PIMCO actually built one of the best returning stock funds of all time? Even after underperforming by 10+% annualized each year for the last 3-years during the duration bear market, the PIMCO StocksPlus Long Duration fund is still beating the S&P 500 by over 0.30%/yr, after fees, on the 10-year figure numbers and has done ~13.5% per annum after fees since its inception in 2007. And my guess is that the majority of the bond bear market is over, so we're probably judging them at the trough in relative performance

The US is the country in the world that has the LEAST incentive to give up the current system. That being said - the writing is on the wall for the current system. The only question is what would be the alternative. IF the alternative is Bitcoin, the US would do well by being an early adopter. That being said, I do NOT expect the US to adopt BTC in any meaningful way for the $ or the debt. I expect it to be other countries with significantly less to lose who make the move first - as demonstrated by El Salvador and Central African Republic being the first two.

If we stop looking at how much a coin is worth - because 21 million was largely arbitrary - and look at the market cap the picture becomes clearer. $500k for a BTC seems like a lot. But in reality - that is only $9 trillion on a market cap. For an asset class that has the ability to be a global reserve currency AND store of value that doesn't seem like a lot? Gold' market cap alone is estimated to be $17 trillion. In 2020, there was over $18 trillion of NEGATIVE yielding debt. These are the items BTC is competing with and it doesn't seem crazy to me that BTC could get to $18 trillion to compete with them.

Last I heard from him was years ago before the Trump administration screwed us over again. Not sure what his hopes are for a recapitalization, how he is handicapping it, or what his proposed path forward would be to continue justifying the common. I have always viewed the play on common as incredibly speculative and entirely reliant on the kindness of strangers and the courts. It always seemed obvious to me the path of least resistance would be for the common to be diluted into oblivion once the courts made it clear that they weren't going to evaluate the legitimacy of the "bail outs" or the motivations behind them. The commons were the junior claim at that point and the only way they were going to make money was if some other group voluntarily parted with it. Even the preferred are a suspect trade at this point - but the hopium runs strong.

Chaos. Be long volatility. Volatility paid in spades in both 2018 and 2020 of the last Trump presidency. I like bonds here - but i also liked them in 2023. So nothing new. 4+ years in duration. I personally own the long-end, but long bonds are becoming more suspect every passing day. Especially with the likes of Pimco and Double Line both avoiding them. +1 All we can do is ignore what he says, because it's rarely what he's done. All of the "Trump" trades are reliant on him being more successful and reliable than his first term. My favorite Trump trades? Buy everything that people sold when he was elected. Foreign stocks are stupid cheap right now, especially in China, and the currencies are also stupid cheap.

Just like last time, right?!?! The level of delusion is off the charts Time will tell

What are animal spirits? Where are we keeping them that Trump can unleash them? Why do we believe he'll eliminate $2T in spending this presidency when he added $3T between his first and last year last presidency? Why are we still discussing that "loser socialist Biden". He wasn't the candidate that Trump ran against?

I don't disdain the working class. I disdain the intellectually lazy. They're found across all social stratum but overrepresented in Trump supporters I'd prefer things be run by people who know what they're doing rather than people who believe the earth is flat, that Democrats control the weather, and that Trump is innocent