Lazarus

Canada put 100% tariff on Chinese EVs. And Canada's leftists also hate Elon now and there is a call from some of them to put a 100% tariff on Tesla EVs (e.g., by Chrystia Freeland, recent finance minister and 2nd place in the Liberal leadership race to replace Trudeau).

Cod, please try to use "President Trump!!!" next time. What you said can be deemed to be inflammatory or antagonistic, which only opens the thread to further political comments. Cheers!

Do you think politics has no influence on markets?

And sadly Pasad is going to close it at midnight. With an annoying "Cheers!"

I seem to recall the betting markets had tariffs against Canada at only 18% probability. This isn't baked in, at least not in the Cdn market. Ontario alone was predicting 500,000 job losses due to the tariffs. This guarantees a major recession in Canada, presumably with a stock market sell off. We might see FFH get dumped with the rest of the Cdn market.

I'm super curious to see the stock market reaction on Monday.

For me, it's the process. It's socially acceptable gambling. I used to gamble quite a bit at casinos, but stopped when my kids were born. So now, individual stock picks serve that purpose. If you're doing it just for the proceeds, you are probably fooling yourself. It's super hard to beat the market. Like it or not, if you beat the market by a large % it might very well be through luck. It means you identified one of the few "stars" in the market that stick out from the rest of the stocks - you picked Tesla or Netflix early on, and then held it. Otherwise, you might, if you are highly skilled, grind out a few % above the market by picking undervalued value stocks, which is what a lot of us are trying to do here. If you are simply looking to make more money, i.e., here just for the proceeds, then you are probably smarter to spend this extra COBF time on your real job or a side gig, and simply DCA into low-fee index funds in a buy and hold Bogle style.

Thanks. I'll look into it.

Turner was a quality finance minister and a Bay street corporate lawyer. I think he might have been a Rhodes Scholar too (I'm too lazy to google it to verify). He didn't have time to do anything as PM, but he's light years ahead of Trudeau and the like.

I'm ready to jump on the bandwagon. What are the consensus picks?

I'm investing in a Swiss ETF as my international play. They have high levels of innovation and are as stable as can be, yet they have lagged for an extended period of time. But I think that AI and Trump de-regulation means the American exceptionalism will continue a bit longer at least.

The 500,000 in Ontario refers to total jobs, public and private: Tariffs from U.S. could cost up to 500,000 Ontario jobs, Ford says | CBC News I get the point that some are saying that these dire predictions are often overblown. But with 75% of Canada's trade going to the USA, this would shut down trade for Canada. It hurts the USA also, but not as much as it hurts Canada.

Nooooo... not the mother in law.

I know that macro concerns are somewhat taboo for value investors, but they are hard to ignore with the tariff threats looming. The Ontario government estimates that a 25% tariff would cost 500,000 Canadian jobs in Ontario alone. Extrapolating to the rest of the country, that means about 2 million Cdn jobs would be lost. That undoubtedly causes a recession and economic crisis, and Canada is already leaking water after 9 years of Trudeau. Yet the Cdn market shrugs it off?

When my kids were born, I had better parental leave benefits than my wife. Still, I had zero intention to stay home with the kids; I hadn't even considered it. But my wife sucked at taking care of babies (she was emotionally overwhelmed by the crying) so at the 4-month point I stayed home with the kids and she went back to work. It took a couple of weeks to figure out what I was doing, but once I got the hang of it, I LOVED it and it was easy. Me and the baby went all over, played all day. My wife would come home from work and the kid would be covered in mud from playing outside with me. If I hadn't done this, I would have ended up simply deferring to my wife on a lot of parenting issues since "she's the mother", the way a lot of men behave in families. I liked the experience so much that I ended up staying off work with each baby until they were 18-months old. I did that with both of my daughters and our connection is strong because of it.

My bad.

Why do you think Polievre is a nutcase SD? He's a sharp debater, quick on his feet and has a grasp of the issues.

The thread is about the investability of europe, and this is an interview between the world's most successful businessman and a potential leader of the biggest economy in Europe. Why wouldn't it be 'appropriate'? You sound like a leftist boomer stifling free speech.

54 year old lawyer.

Trying to time the market. Left way too much money on the table by not just following simple Bogle rules.

I'm following you into FMCB, Spekulatius. I like its valuation metrics and its conservative stance. Thanks for opening my eyes to it.

No worries about a tariff war hitting China?

The drug problem is tough. The govt will never win the war on drugs. They can't even keep drugs out of prison - a space where everyone going in and out gets searched, mail gets searched, and inmates have no privacy. Yet you can still find all sorts of drugs in prison. Legalizing it to destroy the black market and eliminate the crime associated with it makes a lot of sense (since the war on drugs can't be won), but then you have the downside of society-sponsored addiction, ruined lives and overdoses. And if the govt doesn't offer some drugs (fentanyl, etc.) those will still be offered on the black market. You can't win. The Switzerland model is worth a try, but keep in mind that Switzerland is a small and relatively homogenous society of very responsible and organized people. I spent a year there recently and couldn't get over how rigidly organized the Swiss can be. Swiss drug addicts are probably more organized and reliable than the average north american non-addict. I'm exaggerating a bit, but only a bit...

As a european, do you think there could be a flight to safety to the Swiss market? I'm looking at a Swiss ETF simply as a medium term spot to park money.

RFK's impact on Pharma and biotech is a wild card.