Lazarus

Thanks all for the responses so far. Greg, you make some good points in (1) and (2). I don't know why I am picking the 2009 bottom or March 2020 as my starting points for a dramatic "rise". I guess it is my pessimistic viewpoint, and I need to change that. Libs - for what it's worth, I've been piling a bunch of my savings into BRK, even though I assume (likely incorrectly) we have a ways to go in this bear market. Great company at a fair price, and all that.

I've come to the realization that I'm a perma-bear pessimist about markets and that it is a huge flaw. I was underinvested in 2009 (I thought the world was ending) and didn't invest at all in the March 2020 lows (I thought the bubble was finally bursting and waited for blood in the streets). With that disclaimer in mind, I still can't help but think that we are still in bubble territory and we are nowhere near the bottom. Perhaps someone would be kind enough to explain the flaws in my thinking, so that I can join the optimists and make more money: 1) I think that the rise since 2009 has been largely due to QE, low interest rates and central bank interference (as opposed to fundamental business reasons). Hence, I am suspicious of the meteoric stock market rise since 2009. 2) The sharp rise in markets since March 2020 makes zero sense to me. We've been in lockdowns, had supply chain issues, etc. Does this rise reflect fundamentals in any way? What justifies the market rise? Why the hell didn't the market fall? 3) If the Fed is now going to focus on fighting inflation, common knowledge is that raising rates to fight inflation will make the markets fall. How much of a battle will this be? My pessimistic side thinks that it will be hard to get inflation under control, for two reasons: (a) the amount of QE and the increase in money supply since 2009 should have caused massive inflation for years. Buffett wrote an article to this effect back in 2010 or 2011, and Buffett has indicated in years since that he doesn't understand why inflation didn't hit, that it should have. Hence, maybe the inflationary pressures are like a loaded spring - they were held back for many years, and now are being released with a vengeance. Maybe all the inflation we should have had earlier, as per Buffett's predictions, are catching up with us. (b) will raising rates really lower inflation that much? To the extent that inflation is being caused by supply side issues (China lockdowns, supply chain issues, etc.), then how do rate increases address those particular issues? Rate increases will slow down demand, but perhaps the current inflation is due to supply issues? Thoughts? You guys mostly seem more optimistic than me (and you are better investors than me), and I'd like to join you on the light side.

Here's a pic of the scholar in question. Tells you everything you need to know:

Why do you necessarily attribute market reaction to splits to retail investors?

Do retail investors actually move the market in any way? Retail investors are only about 10-15% of the market and are slower to respond to news, etc.

Putin set out his demands to end the war on multiple occasions. Most recently, he set out his demands in a phone call with the leader of Turkey (who passed on the message). Putin is asking for (1) no NATO in Ukraine, Ukraine stays neutral; (2) recognize Crimea as Russia, plus various other smaller demands (get rid of "nazis", some demands for Donask or wherever, and some other stuff). The big demands relate to NATO and Crimea, and Zelensky has already acquiesced to giving up on NATO and Crimea is already a done deal. So they will haggle over the minor stuff and make concessions so that they can both save face and claim victory. This conflict is almost over.