Lazarus

Why do you think anyone would actually listen to a COBF trained LLM? There is no shortage of information out there: gurufocus, seeking alpha, value walk, etc. If anything, there is too much information. Those of us on this site value it, but the outside world is oblivious and will remain so. IMHO.

Is this why you repeatedly make a point of claiming so many people are stupid?

I've tried the same - doesn't work. It would be a useful add on, to quickly get up to speed. It would be great to even isolate certain themes (e.g., the evolution of Viking's thesis on fairfax in a thousand page thread).

What's the company? That matters because that some software companies are more likely to bounce back than others. And is this in a taxable or non-taxable account? If taxable, can you use the loss to offset other gains?

That doesn't sound like overwhelming booing to me.

Sorry, I have to strongly disagree - at his age, and given his general pessimistic nature, he shouldn't hold large amounts of cash waiting for opportunities. He's young and has 30-plus years of investing ahead of him. He should be 100% invested - markets end up ahead over any sort of timeline like that, usually by a very large amount. At his age, waiting around for great opportunities is just a form of market timing, a notoriously bad idea. For him, it's much better to just get in the market 100% and continue to DCA. This is even more true given his pessimistic nature, which is a huge handicap in the long-term investing game. But I've seen enough of his posts to realize that he thinks he knows better, that everyone who tells him this exact same message are dumber than him, and he won't listen.

Yep, your money is safer hidden under your mattress. It's the only way.

Even when the crash comes he won't invest since the headlines are scary and "it will crash further". How much did he invest in the 2020 crash?

Does the info above show the USA share of global GDP has increased from 2008 to 2025?

It's not that simple, Sweet. The USA hasn't declined it's share of global GDP.

He will think that the market has further to crash and will continue to horde his cash. Blake is Dunning-Kruger personified but he doesn't realize it and is too stubborn to learn. From the bottom of my heart, Blake - give up on trying to outsmart the market, and even give up on stock picking. Instead, just follow the Boggleheads / John Bogle approach: DCA into an index fund, ignore the news, and focus on your career instead. That's what Warren Buffett suggests for the average investor and you claim to love Buffett's advice. In 30 years, you'll be decently wealthy and you'll thank yourself.

He fucked this up majorly. Everyone agrees that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear bomb and anyone with half a brain knows that they are enriching uranium with that end in mind. But he didn't have the courage to truly commit with ground troops, or at least force the Israelis to be the ground troops in exchange for air support, etc..

Canada is officially in recession: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/recession-gdp-may-2026-statscan-9.7216352

I have a buddy who was buying up properties in Detroit for about $10K each, fixing them up and renting almost exclusively to military vets (something about Veteran Affairs guaranteeing the rent). He bought something like 100 houses.

Man, I have mixed feelings on this. I like the things you mention, but would also fear Orwellian misuses - people reporting Facebook posts, etc.

I'm rolling the dice on SpaceX and AI hype with DXYZ. It's a closed end fund with 7% of its money in SpaceX, and similar positions in other hyped AI companies. It's already overpriced by 2x the value of the underlying positions, but I'm hoping for SpaceX mania. I'll sell a few days before the IPO, win or lose. Wish me luck.

You forgot to add it to this message!

Any solid investment is good for a guy in his 20s. Put it this way: if a 25 year old invests a mere $10,000 per year in an ETF that earns 10% compounded (the historical average), he would have $3 million by the time he is 60. Adjusting for inflation, it is still worth present day value of $1.4 million. Berkshire will outperform the market, imho, at least for another 10 years. For example, if Berkshire earns 12%, the investment would grow to $4.75 million. Bottom line: time in market is what really matters, along with not losing money. An ETF is perfectly valid investment, and so is Berkshire. We all want to find the big winners, hence we are here. But solid investments at the core of the portfolio are important.

The argument isn't false. The amount of extremist Islamic terrorism dwarfs that of other religions. As mentioned, when someone drives a car into a crowd or explodes a suicide vest in a subway, you don't think that the Jehovah Witness are behind it. We all know who it is, 99% of the time. Even if woke politicians tells us that 'we might never know his real motivation'. You can add a nuance to say that extremist Muslims aren't the only source of violence, and I'll agree with you. We might even agree that religions in general breed intolerance and are a cancer on human philosophy. Anything that creates or encourages an 'us v. them' mentality is problematic, whether that is an ideology associated with race, religion, gender, whatever. Religion happens to be a particularly strong one, since it involves 'God', an afterlife, morality, and so forth.

When it comes to religious violence, it's certainly not all Muslims. But it's almost always a Muslim. If someone rams a car into a crowd or explodes a suicide bomb in a crowded area, do you ever think "Damn Mormons are at it again?"

What exactly are you suggested, nsx? That we try to identify which AI companies will rise from the ashes of a burst bubble? Similar to identifying Wells Fargo as a safe investment in March 2009?

Avoiding mistakes is Charlie's mantra. I just perused the ToC for this one - almost 500 pages! I assume it has a lot of filler? Also, could I get the same advice just by listening to Blake and doing the opposite?

Which math is that? Are you brave enough to share exactly what you've invested? Both now and in the last 5 years?

If AI is a legit game-changer in the workforce, then it's just the like the industrial revolution: new technology allows society to get richer as a whole. And if that's the case, then society is about to get richer and the markets will charge ahead as a whole. There are always doomsayers, since there are always scary problems and reasons to be negative. The doomsayers will eventually be right and a crash of 30% or 40% (or even 50% in super rare instances) will come, but they'll sit out all the gains while waiting for that moment. And even when the 30% drop comes, they'll think it's going to get worse and miss the bottom. How many of the doomsayers profited heavily by buying at market bottoms in 2009? In 2020?

I'm super happy to hear that you probably caught this in time, CW. But the above sentence is something that is way too common for men and we need to change it. Medical science is the main reason we live longer and healthier lives, but it doesn't help unless we use it. Do yearly checkups, get your blood tested, get all the preventative and diagnostic tests you can. Catching stuff early is key. I also had cancer. I'll tell my story, so you're not alone here. Like you, I rarely went to the doctor, but I was having pain in my back and sides. My doctor minimized it - told me to do more exercise. I worked on my flexibility and strength and came back a few months later. I told my doctor I could deadlift 250 lbs and showed him that I could touch my toes with ease: my strength and flexibility were fine. He again minimized it, telling me that I have a desk job and I should do yoga. I went back the next day and demanded to see a different doctor. This is in Canada, so it's not easy to just 'see a family physician'. But I was adamant, almost making a scene but careful not to get kicked out. They let me see someone else... long story short, I had stage 4 lymphoma, a large tumour near my spleen that was giving me pain, another tumour near my heart, cancer throughout the lymphatic system, and in my bones. If they had caught it when I first went to the doctor, it probably would have been stage 2. It was an extremely aggressive and fast spreading cancer. Ironically, that makes it easier for chemo to kill it (since chemo targets actively growing cells). My oncologist told me that I would either be dead in 6 months or they would be able to get it all. That was 9 years ago, so I'm in the clear. Bottom line: don't take your health for granted, don't ignore pain, go to the doctor for yearly check ups, don't be satisfied with the bare minimum of testing.