LearningMachine

Thanks @JRM, this chart is for average use per vehicle, not total use for each vehicle category. If you happen to find the link for total use for cars is below certain percentage, would love to learn more here.

Hey @JRM, curious to learn more here. Do you have a link?

I posted this a while back but can't find it easily now: #1. There are about 290 million cars in the U.S. #2. Total car sales are about 15 million per year #3. If 100% of car sales were electric today, it will take 19 years to replace those 290 million cars. #4. Today, about 0.3 million car sales per year are electric #5. If electric sales double every two years, what year do you think electric car sales will be 15 million per year? #6. What year do we get if we add 19 years to the year from #5 above? Ok, you'll have to add less than 19 because we would have already replaced a percentage of the fleet by the time we get to #5, but you get the picture.

History repeats. Canadian oil companies might be a good way to avoid the significant probability of windfall tax if crude goes really high.

For OXY, looks like you have debt at $40B because you're counting $29.5B debt as of Dec 2021 and $10.5B to cash out preferred some day?

Now that we're gonna see another leg down, what are folks hoping to pick up for real?

What's on your buy list?

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-martin-terminates-44-bln-deal-acquire-aerojet-rocketdyne-2022-02-13/

Indeed, in January 2014 10 year treasury was ~2.86% S&P 500 P/E was ~25 S&P Earnings were ~120 S&P was at 1822 Since 2014, S&P 500 earnings have gone up less than 50%, but S&P 500 has more than doubled, because of increase in P/E multiple which is influenced heavily by interest rates. What would be S&P 500 today at P/E multiple of 25 that it was in 2014? In 1974, 10 year treasury hit above 8%, and P/E multiple hit below 9. What would be S&P 500 at P/E multiple below 9 that it was in 1974 if we hit higher interest rates by any chance this time? I'm not saying any of this is going to happen with certainty and not do anything. As always, I'm just saying we should look to do reasonably ok both ways whether it happens or not.

Thanks @formthirteen. My bad for asking too quickly before looking further. I was a little stretched for time.

Thanks @gfp. I found it later in the earnings releases as well.

@formthirteen, I can't find any 10K or 10Q for TME. They talk about how much cash they have in their earnings releases and transcripts. Do you know how much debt they have, and supporting documentation for that?

It still doesn't look cheap from EV/EBIT or P/E perspective. One good thing for inflation is that tangible assets needing to be replaced with inflated dollars are not very high compared to EBIT. So, the earnings are coming more from the brand instead of the tangible assets, but brand is indeed at risk from the monopsony power of Costco, Walmart, and Amazon.

@Gregmal, I was not suggesting to chuck long term holdings at the first sign of a hiccup, and agree to not send uncle Sam a dividend until you actually see something compelling . I was just asking about adding more. Also, I agree, some of the quality tech names need to come down a lot.

What earnings yield do you want for your investments if we are heading back to 1970s style inflation and 10-year-treasury is heading towards the left side of the chart?

@Gregmal, I hear you that MSGS will probably hold its value long term, and do well in inflation also. That said, if we are gonna hit a bottom, we might get the chance to pick up things that will double in the next 1-3 years. Is MSGS one of those?

I think someone said decisions they make at the bottom is where some make most of their money even though they may not know it then. What are are some stocks/ETFs folks are hoping to buy at the bottom? For taxable accounts, what do folks think will continue to compound at a good rate after the bottom that they won't have to sell for a decade? For tax-free accounts, where you can churn faster, what are you hoping to buy at a discount?

Were they moving to south florida or moved their recently as a result of remote work, or already there before pandemic?

Shiller P/E now over 40! Interestingly normal S&P 500 P/E is down to about 30 because S&P 500 earnings actually went up a lot. Source:https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Source: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio Source: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

Thanks @thepupil and @lnofeisone, each time I've looked into it, I haven't been able to find a way to invest on the equity side of these long-term commercial loans. I connected with a sponsor that had managed to get one of these loans within a fund, and found that they were also staying away from it in general both because of the length it takes for approval and also so that they could get lower interest rate with shorter-term mortgages to be able to finance their purchases and still show investors cash-on-cash return. While investors are the ones who would suffer if interest rate risk materialized, as sponsors, they were going to get paid even in that case. For the property that they did get financed with the long-term loan, they pretty much self-appraised it at a high price for investors in the fund. So, I'd really appreciate if anyone has found any specific investor-friendly syndicate sponsors or shareholder-friendly public equities to invest on equity side of these long-term commercial loans.

@thepupil, have you found any public equities or private equity syndicates that are taking advantage of this for almost all their mortgages resulting in having a very long weighted average maturity for their mortgages? Would any of the folks you used to fund be open to taking equity investors where debt is funded by such mortgages?

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone! Amazing how folks across two countries, and pretty much across the world, looking to compound their learning and wealth have found each other in this forum, similar to how Buffett and Munger had found each other, all thanks to Sanjeev! This is a really special group of people in the world!

There was a time not too long ago you could buy real estate at 10+ caps in some areas. That was the perfect time to buy it! There was a time not many years before then when real estate was also trading at 4 cap in some areas. I just went through Toll Brothers and DR Horton's transcripts to confirm builders are on track to increase their output by about 20+% per year. That should bring new homes under construction to 2M next year that I was expecting. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST. Listening to builders, this time they are already hitting record build outputs, and sharing how people are actually putting orders hand-over-fist for different geographies and areas outside cities, unlike last time when there was a limit to how much people wanted to move out. So, I think this time we might actually end up building lot more excess supply. Need to hit 2M first!

Buffett explained in 2015 that utilities and railroads are poor businesses for inflation. See https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2015/05/02/what-businesses-do-best-in-times-of-high-inflation.html. Instead, he said that a strong brand is a wonderful thing to own in inflation. See's chart in the other thread indeed shows how it did from 1972 to 1984.

Thank you for jogging everyone's memory on this. This chart reminds me of an axiom that I'll add to the Axioms list in another thread: