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BargainValueHunter

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Everything posted by BargainValueHunter

  1. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150327005554/en/Fairholme-Funds---Fairholme-Focused-Income-Fund#.VRWWkkY2w7A
  2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality
  3. In a world of Jim Cramer, Whitney Tilson isn't so bad.
  4. Recently overheard at the SEC... "You guys check out this Bloomberg article?"
  5. Ross on where oil prices are heading: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349479
  6. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/mark-carney/11367570/Mark-Carney-warns-of-liquidity-storm-as-global-currency-system-turns-upside-down.html
  7. Bloomberg's take... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-22/berkowitz-to-take-investor-questions-after-fannie-freddie-losses.html
  8. http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2015/01/16/sears-canada-offers-target-canadas-workers-discounts-invites-them-to-apply-for-jobs
  9. Make sure you read the research about what happens to investors when they switch funds after a losing streak. Its not Berkowitz's "losing streak" I'm worried about; he's had plenty of those in the past. My worry is that the guy running the Fairholme Fund now isn't the same person as this guy from 2003: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10086411/1/fairholmes-15-faves-from-berkshire-to-telecom.html
  10. My coworker is one of those guys. The wall of his cube buts up to mine but we are in different divisions. He's in a technical training capacity. About 2 years ago he took a week seminar about trading FX. For the last 6 months he sets up daily trades at this desk and says he does day trading but hold each position 1-3x. He has been telling his staff for the past few months that he was picking up pennies as the Swiss defend their currency and he trades it as they will bring it back in line once it starts to move away. He has been out sick the past few days. Wow...feel bad. Saw that 70% of FXCM's clients lost money last year, this isn't a retail game. Had a co-worker years ago who was into day trading. Would send out these IM messages thought the day "just made $800 in a few minutes" "another $1k". I was derided for being a long term investor who didn't know squat. Then suddenly one day the IM's stopped. A couple days later I asked how he was doing he said "I lost interest" or as another co-worker put it "he took a bath on a few trades and his wife found out what he was doing and told him to stop." Seemed like the currency market was perfectly setup for a blowup. Bloomberg Markets magazine had a big article on currency trading in the last issue. The ones making the money in this market are the brokers and those selling seminars on how to get rich. How do you get rich trading foreign currency? Start a seminar series telling people they can get rich trading. One of the smartest guys at my job went through the same thing. Currency trading makes penny stock day trading look easy!
  11. Funny...I was just studying that one less than an hour ago. Kiplinger is high on that fund in particular. I am really interested in FOCIX. Bronze rating from M* and (to tie it into the recent discussion on the SHLD thread) Berkowitz has 26% of it in SHLD 6.625% and 37% in cash.
  12. I think you are not including distributions? I am seeing it down just under 20%... although, i'm not sure that changes the thrust of your point. Mutual funds often distribute large capital gains at the end of the year, so you have to use a total return chart or measure. For example, FAIRX distributed >$3 / share at the end of December (this isn't a regular div, but a gain distribution). Good point. But my main point is that Berkowitz's style drift has hurt his returns going back half a decade. I am in the process of looking for a new value fund whose manager sticks to one tried and true strategy.
  13. Fairholme Fund has lost a quarter of its value in the last six months. Over the last five years the Income Fund (FOCIX) has outperformed (FAIRX). Anyone still holding this fund?
  14. Believing in Chad Wasilenkoff, Eddie Lampert and Bruce Berkowitz in 2014 hasn't been exactly a "hit" so I'll say "miss" to that. :o
  15. Point well taken, stahleyp. I've just had pretty good luck with temporary "snap back" trades with ITM options in the past and USO is certainly looking interesting here. I'd only commit 1% of my portfolio for the trade at most since (outside of a global recession) I can't imagine oil trending this way and this fast quarter after quarter.
  16. ITM USO LEAPS are starting to look VERY interesting...
  17. What do you guys think about the Fairholme Funds sight re-design? It seems like Mr. Berkowitz is trying to focus visitors in on his investing philosophy far more than he did under the old design. Buffett never went flashy.
  18. Just in case no one has noticed... NG prices are collapsing today. Opportunity?
  19. Courtesy of the cheery, upbeat folks at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/most%20leveraged%20energy%20companies.jpg
  20. With the collapse of petroleum industry equities I'd bet some bonds in this space are becoming really interesting at this point.
  21. i hope your kidding. No, not kidding. Now if the criteria is I have to put my life's savings into equities then I'd pick: VTI (60%) and BND (40%) which I know aren't individual stocks but that's what I'd do if I couldn't get to my investments and make any changes for 10 years.
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