BargainValueHunter

Couldn't have said it better myself. Of course Sanders turned around and sold out too but I still agree with the sentiment.

Yes, this is an old thread but given the incredible 10% plus gain yesterday in FAIRX (and how often do you see unlevered, high cash, multi-sector, mutual funds gain 10%+ in a single trading day?) I figured it would be interesting to look back at the last time Berkowitz outperformed. The thread title is eerily apropos. I've never seen such an up or down manager. If you are very, very patient I suppose Buffett's mantra of "We prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12% return" becomes a guiding light with Berkowitz running your capital!

Retire in Mississippi and, with the money you save on rent, you can travel to Manhattan once a month for an extended weekend and still save on your taxes! Disclosure: I've lived in both. "Live in low CoL place and visit high CoL place often" is certainly my retirement plan!

The first question is: Do you want to retire in Manhattan or Mississippi? The answer to that will dictate your necessary income.

If you are long XCO... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-24/a-turnaround-titan-meets-his-match-amid-oil-s-downturn If you are long the GSEs... http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/oral-history/financial-crisis/tags/fannie-and-freddie/

Most of you probably have heard this but given this situation of an extremely friendly incoming Administration going to Washington it is worth listening to again... https://audioboom.com/posts/4419874-fannie-freddie-the-long-shadows-of-2008-richardaepstein-hooverinst

Berkowitz's returns are so "Zig-Zag" from the rest of the market with his loony portfolio concentration. He was actually doing pretty well vs. SPY since early February but since Trump won his holdings have been moonshots. Even JOE has been strong. Yeah, a few weeks means nothing in the long run but it is fascinating to watch. Seems every few years he badly, badly lags the market or absolutely crushes it. And FOCIX is a VERY good hybrid income fund...maybe Berkowitz should stick to distressed debt? For the diehards who are still in his funds maybe they can use the outsized gains over the last few weeks to finally escape without too big of a loss.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hedge-fund_us_5826076ce4b02d21bbc8781e

-Bruce Berkowitz, 2008 (8 short years ago and right before one of the greatest times to deploy capital in modern history...yes, rear view mirror and all but still...)

M* warns on serious liquidity risk at Fairholme: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=772817 Not good when your fund is losing $70 million every month...

He says that the whole fund can lose up to 15% if he is wrong. I have to at least give him credit for admitting that. So he may have a scenario where the GSEs are a zero and SHLD is a zero. Kind of a great advertisement for diversification (maybe he and Pabrai can have a stiff drink together at some bar and talk it out). Anyway...he'll still have St. Joe so there's that.

Bruce must be feeling the (redemption) heat. He has another interview this weekend, this time with Consuelo Mack (again): http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/09/bruce-berkowitz-fannie-mae-freddie/ By the way...~20% of the portfolio in Freddie and Fannie and another big slug in St. Joe? St. Joe!! Wow.

New interview featuring...a new haircut!! (He looks a bit like Stephen Merchant now) http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/bruce-berkowitz-on-banks-fannie-mae-and-trump.html

Oh I've most certainly read his emails, his letters to shareholders among other material although it has been sometime since I've been on a conference call. The problem with Sears is that the thesis did not play out the way he expected. There has been a massive amount of cash burn in the process with Lampert moving ever so slowly. If he had done a massive liquidation and redeployment about 10 years ago then the thesis would have been correct. It's what Buffett says all the time, the time is a friend of a great business and the enemy of a lousy business. While Berkshire, Markel, and others have been increasing intrinsic value every year by upwards of 10%, Sears has been bleeding with loss after loss pretty much every year. That's your opportunity cost right there, intrinsic value shrinking instead of increasing. Anyway you should be careful about comparing some people to white sheep and black sheep. Calling somebody a black sheep is actually considered quite insulting. I think the rest of us are having a pretty reasonable and honest discussion as shareholders. A 10 year string of underperformance is very significant... I remember the good 'ol days when Berkowitz invested in "Berkshire, Markel and others". Sigh. Berkowitz got too cute with the whole "I can identify undervalued businesses that few others can" thing. Sometimes the best investments are "great businesses selling at good prices" as opposed to "terrible businesses selling at great prices".

The first sign that Berkowitz had lost it was when he allowed himself to star in glitzy magazine layouts. The second sign was when he became the star of websites that touted his Art Museum. The third sign was when (after years of touting the real estate) he didn't IMMEDIATELY switch out SHLD common for SRG. But the biggest clue of all that he has suffered enormous style drift is his complete abandonment of investing in high cash flow businesses ("count the cash" as he used to say) and solid managements. Look at his holdings from 2003 and compare the management quality and free cash flow from those holdings to today's Sears and St. Joe. http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53962eb7e4b053c664d74f3d/t/542a2558e4b0c347a8cc1a49/1412048216250/2003AnnualReport.pdf I honestly don't know why those of you who have held on for the last six years have done so.

The current atmosphere of "the way things currently are is the new normal and that won't change anytime soon" reminds me of dotcom in '99 and the U.S. housing boom in '05. A lot of capitulation during those times from very surprising corners of the investing/financial world.

Man, his Sears defense gets weaker and weaker every half-year. Why not just sell and get rid of the cancer all at once?!?!

EUFN and GREK calls. FXY puts.

OTM TLT puts

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dd775bc-39cc-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html

Volatility ETN/ETP trading volume exploding as the world positions for the Brexit decision: http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/06/17/vix-etf-trading-goes-bananas/

Kudos to anybody who actually began to go short the European banks two years ago. This was a great call.

Gio is like a reverse Midas... everything he touches turns to shit. What a clown. Go easy...we all make mistakes. How many of us on this board thought that Eddie Lampert, Bruce Berkowitz, Mohnish Pabrai, Tom Ward and Chad Wasilenkoff had the Golden Touch™ until reality set in?

Well now it seems that just over half of Fairholme is either Sears or St. Joe. Could it be that Berkowitz sees a significant increase in inflation in the near to medium term? I am just trying to figure out how SHLD and JOE are the two best options in the investing universe (at least in his mind).

https://quantcha.com/OSE#/CoveredCalls