BargainValueHunter

Div increasing by 50% is good news for the TARP warrant holders!

Looks like Whitney's predictions may be coming true (two years late): http://finance.yahoo.com/news/detroit-not-one-off-aftershocks-062741376.html Wouldn't such a judgment be great for muni bond insurers as they could then be justified in jacking up premiums?

http://www.businessandleadership.com/leadership/item/42029-bank-of-ireland-appoints/

USEC (USU) up over 150% today. One of the largest squeezes of the decade.

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2013/07/10/investment-guru-berkowitz-buys-miami.html http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FLEREA_Max_630_378.png

More... http://www.gurufocus.com/news/222601/prem-watsas-new-stock-pick-in-greece-the-first-nation-demoted-to-emerging-status

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/prem-watsa-greece/

It seems that the general consensus is that you can't call yourself a value investor if you gamble on gold or gold mining stocks. WB would NEVER invest in gold and gold miners. Even if gold mining stocks always destroy value and never offer a decent return it doesn't seem like a terrible idea to at least look at the space if sentiment is universally negative and the shares of a particular junior gold miner are trading at less than tangible book value minus liabilities.

I think this is why the politicians are so desperate to take the GSEs out of the public shareholder's hands. The cash flows for them to play with (spend) will be enormous going forward.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1509142-sears-holdings-valuation-between-berkshire-hathaway-and-bankruptcy

ATPGP SGGH PST (short) VC warrants SPY (short puts) DBC NSU NBG (calls) GDXJ (short puts) GSE common AMBC warrants JGBS JGBD BXMT FRO PAY DWA TAN SJB

With $100k you could produce TWO low budget horror movies. Go to a local film school...there you will get highly motivated VOLUNTEER talent. Shop your project at the various film markets where foreign distributors clamour for gore heavy, dialogue light (for easy dubbing) content. Friends in this line of work usually return 3x their money every few years and once in a while a project becomes a small "hit" in a territory and they get ~7x their investment. Lots of work though...

Trading into AIG and BAC for the health insurers and defense companies worked out eventually but it cost him billions in capital (redemptions).

Annaly used to have a GREAT blog discussing macro events and trends and how they relate to the mortgage bond market. I think when Mike Farrell got sick (and, sadly, died) they discontinued it and took it down. The old Seeking Alpha version is still up and it provides great historical insights: http://seekingalpha.com/author/annaly-salvos/articles

I agree that right now these guys are at very low leverage levels (6x being lower than NLY's historical average of 8-12x). However, realize that they are at 6x precisely because they realize that the duration of their MBS position is going to increase to absurd levels on a sustained 200-300 bps increase in mortgage rates (for instance w/o offsetting swaps, the duration of their book to equity could easily be 90 assuming durations on mortgages move out to 15 years (D/E *(duration of assets- duration of liabilities)) at 6x leverage...one better hope they have got their decimals right on their swap hedges!!!). Also, to the extent that operation twist/economic conditions cause long dated treasuries and mortgage rates to continue to decline, the spread on NLY's book will continue to narrow. Historically, they've levered up when spreads have narrowed to keep ROE flat. However, this won't be possible if yield curve continues to flatten out and they need to worry about the duration extension issue. Separate of all this, on an extreme shock, I wouldn't be surprised to see haircuts move from 3-5-8% for agency paper...though the federal reserve would move quickly to add hundreds of billions to the monetary base to stop this from happening. http://soberlook.com/2012/09/mortgage-reits-leverage-poses.html http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KWZrlhopf4I/UE9YwfSqDJI/AAAAAAAAL30/sDchejBZ1x0/s1600/REpo+term.PNG

Well I didn't see that one coming! http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MI-AU350_Fairho_D_20090102152555.jpg

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100765505

Freddie common up 40% today! :o

Good stuff! Anyone know of any other board members who may have been featured or profiled in the financial press? (I believe I remember one other person but it would be interesting to read about others too.)

Another possible sign of a top... http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/meet-dylan-the-daytrader/2013/05/09/00786200-b5d6-11e2-b94c-b684dda07add_print.html This seems AWFULLY familiar somehow...

Credit:Onefamilysblog Dot Com http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/16/106657-13686797627314627-John-Vincent.jpg

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704253204578466950395417708.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=596434&pgid=rss Has an "income style mutual fund" EVER moved up 11% in one day? :o

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/us-usa-freddiemac-earnings-idUSBRE9470I120130508

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2013/05/09/fannie-mae-books-8b-profit-releases-50b-valuation-allowance/