Malmqky

Agreed. But I think he’s certainly one, it makes me doubt his motives (DOGE). Okay, done commenting for real.

On one hand he’s doing God’s work with DOGE. On the other hand, I think he’s a narcissist who craves power and is going to deregulate/destabilize with the goal of increasing his own wealth. I don’t believe for a second he’s doing this because he “loves America” or wants to “give back”. We’ll see how this ends. Done commenting because I don’t want a 30 day ban. Edit: he’s created lots of wealth for shareholders at the end of the day. Results count for something.

“The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time.” - Warren Buffett

Is there a charity or cause you'd like us to donate to? I assume you aren't going to accept payment for this and all the work you do. I think myself and many others want to support your work.

Tracker in ASML

Good, maybe Google will stop spending so much on capex miss the lean days. Anyways, you have to admire Apple's approach to all this. I think most people agreed it was the right way to go about things, but still takes good vision to stick to your guns like they did.

Bought some PDD calls early Friday to scratch that gambling/speculation itch. ________________________________________________________________ Not to take this further off topic, but even if you have huge f*ck-ups, you can still do well. I'll use myself as an example, and my worst investment failure. I started buying FB at $300 something per share. Averaged down for a while, then ended up selling at like net-cash and like 2-3x sales (can't remember which). It was a large position too. I got caught up in the pessimism surrounding spending on the Metaverse and TikTok. Basically, pulled an Ackman. Not going to make excuses for this one LOL. Few years later and I still think about this. But guess what? I've still outperformed the market since I had the guts to buy and hold great companies in the aftermath of times like 2009 and 2020. And buying energy in 2020. My point is you can have big f*ck-ups and still do well. You just have to be optimistic, do some work, not outsmart yourself, and have guts. I've had 50% portfolio drawdowns more than once. I've had terrible investment decisions like Meta. I've held too much cash at times, and not enough at other times. Etc. Etc. Etc. @Blake Hampton even if shit hits the fan and we have another lost decade in terms of overall market, you can still do well (15%+ CAGR). You can make huge mistakes and still do well. If you're pessimistic though, you'll end up like Klarman and do ~4% CAGR. You have to be nimble, Peter Lynch like. What worked in the early 2000s didn't really work in the 2010s and I reckon the 2020s will continue to give us unique opportunities. You have to have some faith. Sidenote: I too am interested in hearing about your portfolio if willing to share.

Little bit of TAYD

Why this over Eli Lilly? Out of curiosity. I've looked into Novo recently, but biotech in general is just too complex for me I think. Especially valuing these companies. Novo is certainly a great company though.

PDD

Do you live in the US by chance? I know multiple people who have had to declare bankruptcy due to medical expenses. An example is my mother (divorced from my father), who had a brain tumor when I was a child.

Unfortunately SimplyWallstreet is kind of a joke. I wouldn’t put any stock in their valuations. Take a look at some shitcos and see what they value them at. It is nice to see a valuation thrown out like that for FFH though

More $PM. Look who finally has learned to average up Hoping FX gives me some nice buying opportunities over the next year...

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? I know Constellation was richly valued so issuing stock for this deal makes sense. I see they’re assuming like $12B of debt. Maybe this is interesting from a nuclear angle?

Approximately: FFH - 30% JOE - 14.5% Nintendo - 13% FRPH - 9.5% 4-6%ish positions in Google, BRK, PM, MSG stuff, cash, etc. Smaller still positions in Coupang, CSU (recent add), Valaris stock and warrants, AMR/HCC (which look interesting), Tencent/Prosus. Very small positions/trackers in a bunch of other stuff like T, SWBI, Visa, CP, etc. that interests me. Goal is to get rid of all the noise and get down to 6-12ish positions over the next year or two. High quality stuff that lets me sleep at night. There's more to life than reading 10ks and talking with employees too.

I’m curious to hear how weed is more dangerous than alcohol. Are you referring to moderation - eg a beer or glass of wine is better than inhaling smoke? My family is unfortunately no stranger to liquor and drug abuse, and let’s just say I’ve had a few family members drink themselves to death, but the ones that abuse weed…well it could be far, far worse.

Here in the Midwest I can buy eggs for $1.99 per dozen from the store. Not to mention all the folks that actually have chickens around me that will sell me their top-tier eggs for like $5 a dozen or barter them. Just bragging back on topic.

Wealth taxes are just stupid. Anyone with a brain that understands risk gets this. On the other side, say you support it. If Berkshire stock drops 50% tomorrow, it’s probably not worth 50% less. Yet, WB would pay significantly less in wealth tax. So how does that even make sense? Nothing about a wealth tax is a good idea unless you want capital leaving the country.

Bought some more PM. Thinking about moving some more cash into FRPH aka my favorite store of value w/ upside. Thinking about JOE and how to take advantage of the current price with respect to my large position size. Considering dipping my toes in SSD as well. @Luke capitulating on China and the recent Tencent selloff also has me considering where we are in terms of sentiment for China and if I should increase Prosus:Tencent exposure.

Shiller P/E is something people put too much stock in. I agree there are systemic issues and shit will hit the fan at some point. Why don’t you think that’s an opportunity in itself though? Yes, bad for poor folks, bad for economy in general, etc. but as an individual? Well 50% crashes where everyone thinks the world is ending are a blessing. You don’t even have to be smart to take advantage of times like that. I’m not dismissing the damage things like that cause fyi. I guess my question is why do you think as an individual investor this isn’t a massive opportunity for you if you’re correct?

I didn’t realize Adobe was potentially a decent price atm. Thanks for bringing this up as well.

Good. Continue to form your own opinions. Just remember to inverse them and stay away from absolutes and be agile. And learn from folks who lived through it and have had a decade+ to study the aftermath/what happened. I think you're going to do well over the next few decades. Hope I'm not coming off as too preachy or anything.

Study 2009. Almost everyone thought the system WAS broken. And it kinda was and is tbf. But still... Also I'm not saying you're wrong or necessarily disagreeing with anything you said. I'm just saying opportunity exists no matter what.

And those 13 years were some of the easiest, best performance years for many folks. I doubt we'll be so lucky as well. But what do I know? Just seen this all before, lived through stuff like this, and despite make some really dumbass decisions over the years, outperformed and not blown-up.

^ Also, 50% crashes happen. But guess what? Even in time periods where market is flat for a decade, there are people who have made phenomenal returns. The time period right before dot-com crash and the decade after was incredibly easy if you were a fundamental focused person who picked individual stocks. You just had to be ok with underperforming during some mania. If you know what you’re doing, macro really doesn’t even matter all that much. If the market crashed 50%, I bet many members on this board wouldn’t be down nearly so much, and the buying opportunities and thus long term performance would be glorious.