Sweet

Think I agree with that. Although I’m not sure the Saudis will have the exact same play as the last couple of times. Their supply increase needs to be more permanent IMO. There is a wild card too, perhaps Putin calls in a favour and somehow gets the Saudis to not pump oil. They need the oil money for their Ukraine war.

The Saudis have been doing nearly all the heavy lifting to keep prices up. Whats the point of keeping millions of barrels off the market just to allow the US producers to fill that gap and drive down price lower anyway. The Saudis may as well produce close to their full amount, and let price settle where it will, and allow US producers to max out their production as soon as possible.

Let her trade the main fund. Got dam.

There is a lot of dead weight in OPEC, i could see the Saudis and UAE go after market share aggressively for a few years, to hell with the rest of them. They aren’t going to take millions off the market and just allow shale to gobble market share. Although there is something to be said that the Saudis and Shale oil is so different that they cater to nearly different markets. Who knows.

It was by a guy on Twitter, WTI realist, an annoying person, son of a Canadian oil CEO, but a good chart and referenced, which showed planned production from a range of global plays over the next 5ish years. Unfortunately it looks like he has hid it behind his substack paywall so I cannot find it.

We do have a mismatch between supply and demand in 2023, especially the last 6 months, there is too much supply. SPR has stopped, are US inventories dropping? No - they up vs a year ago and OPEC+ is producing 2 mbd less than 1 year ago. There is a lot of planned oil coming to the market too, there was a great chart on the oil planned to come online in the next few years and it’s not small. I can’t find it right now but if I can I’ll post. Just a year ago I was thinking higher for longer too, now I think otherwise and believe we are likely stuck in this sort of range we are currently in with spike below and higher. The big risk is OPEC+, at some point I think they will step in to crush shale again. I, like they did I suspect, thought US shale wouldn’t be much more disciplined after its near death experience - wrong again I guess.

I think it was perplexing but I think it’s understandable now. There actually isn’t underinvestment, there isn’t much strain on the available supply, and there appears to be a decent amount of new oil coming on the market. The oil guys have been saying since 2016 that the oil crash from 2014 would cause underinvestment and lead to a supply crunch - but that was historic cycles. I think we have sufficient evidence now that Shale has dramatically shortened the investment cycle and those old models are busted.

On the sector as a whole, I think the higher for longer mantra coming out of covid might be wrong. US shale guys are producing a lot, Saudis and UAE plan to add a couple of extra million, US trying to get Venezuela production back, Brazil looking to increase production significantly. And amidst all this demand has been more patchy that expected, Saudis with a 1 million barrel voluntary cut to support price is not bullish. Id be careful about owning here.

That seems about right on average, maybe a bit more. The EIA does some work on cost of production in regions, it can be found there. That’s not to understate the importance of US shale, it’s huge. Just as an investor, if anyone watching that video thinks the Permian productions costs are $11 production per barrel, their estimates of value are going to be off. The thing about oil that’s crazy is a 10% swing in the price could oil could double / triple the profit per barrel of a company if the price is around their production breakeven point.

It’s possibly not $11 in the Permian anywhere nevermind the weighted average. I’ve never seen anything that’s remotely close to those costs. Costs have come down a lot but not by that much. Middle East like Saudis are still near the lowest cost producers, way cheaper than US Permian shale.

Permain oil production “less than $11 per barrel on average”. No it’s not. It’s not even close. It’s not lower than the Saudis breakeven cost.

Found religion my ass, even in Canadian producers are at it: At some point the Saudis and OPEC are going to increase their production again. Right now they are focused on price but at some point they will care about market share again.

Another new record: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ 13.236 million, there was some discussion about whether they hit those figures in October. Turns out they hit 13.2 in September. The shale bros are legit morons.

Maybe not for you Spec, but many online who had no training in Biology, or limited understanding of infectious diseases, were aggressively pushing all sorts of ridiculousness.

I remember that for a time it was heresy to say that covid would likely become less virulent over time. How dare we downplay covid was the line. Horrible people and a horrible time.

A good principled man. Sad to see him go.

Agree with Spec on this one. If someone produces a better search engine than Google, or even one just as good, I’d use it.

Yes and it’s a huge problem. But if there is another way to get exposure without them in it I’m all ears.

Unfortunately - this I think the tech companies with really long runways aren’t Apple, Google, Meta etc. and it’s just about impossible to predict the next ones.

This should probably go into the cannibals thread but what the heck: Too performers by share price appreciation in 10 years No 1 - Murphy USA No 2 - Avis No 3 - Dillards No 4 - RH No 5 - Autonation No 6 - Allison transmission No 7 - Voya financial No 8 - eBay No 9 - Jack in a box No 10 - DaVita Only the top few outperforming the SP-500 sadly.

I wonder why they fired him? It can’t have been without reason. One Twitter poster showed a clip of him telling congress he had no equity in OpenAI, then it linked a tweet of him saying he had shares - doubt this is what him fired but he potentially lied to Congress.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/discovery-of-dna-structure-and-function-watson-397/

It’s going to be a lot harder to apply CRISPR to other types of tissue type. With blood you can wipe out the entire bone marrow and slowly replace it. It’s going to be difficult to do this at whole body level. Great technology but long road ahead.

Yes - notional

Market value of the position is 1.6 billion I believe. Another one of Burry’s brilliant macro calls.