Sweet

Interesting method for whale watchers in biotech: https://whalewisdomalpha.com/baker-brothers-holdings-13f-replication-strategy/index.html

The end of work would be a disaster for society. Life would be so god dam boring too.

IMO - it’s not. I anticipate a sideways grind for a while longer. If rates stay at close to 5% stocks need to be yielding more than a 5% earnings yield. Forward looking PE for the SP-500 is now 18, so we are getting there.

This sounds so bad lol

But Dalio objected: And so McDowell “assigned an underling to go into the software and program a new rule”1: The book is full of stuff like this: Dalio would call a big meeting, some underling would say something to the effect of “buddy this is a cult and the Principles are nonsense,” Dalio would turn to other underlings and say “do you agree,” the other underlings would say “oh no boss definitely not” in unison, and the objector would get shamed and fired. (One of these stories is excerpted in New York magazine today. And Vanity Fair has an excerpt about some of Bridgewater’s show trials, conducted by James Comey.) A system of radical transparency in the service of making the boss feel good. Copeland also reports that this applied to investing decisions. From an excerpt that ran in the New York Times this weekend: No idea if any of this is true, wouldn’t surprise me, but I do think he is full of shit.

Yeh wonder why they aren’t there? Perhaps because they are conglomerates, or known as investment companies.

Will have to go through some of these names: Many I don’t recognise

I think there is going to be a decent opportunity here at some point, and I would like to own some REITs, just don’t understand the area well enough yet to make an informed decision.

Thread on some interesting REITs

Lol, payback.

That’s a major problem for shareholders.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ New highs from the cowboys. They never learn.

Crazy moves today in many of the regional and even big bank names. Bill Gross thinks this is the bottom - not sure on that but would be nice to see it.

Dam, some of those ITM calls have 1 dollar premiums.

China were pegging their currency and making their economy more competitive. China is a bit stuck in some respects, Western countries have become more suspicious and Western companies are finding it is easier and cheaper to make their goods elsewhere. China wants to try and be more self reliant and consumer based which requires a stronger currency.

To quote a US general on this, referring to US equipment being the best in the world, but Chinese are building their kit rapidly - “quantity is a quality of its own”. Having advanced technology is important but you also need the ability to pump out military equipment at a vast rate. Even if is lower technology, quantity is important.

@SharperDingaan we will see in a few months with the 914 for October is released. Yes rig and fracs lower but the Shale bros have been finding ways to get more - somehow.

The EIA weekly is a modelled figure, it’s been wildly out recently but the EIA are changing their methodology. There was a lot of complaining about the ‘adjustment’ getting out of control and conspiracy theories flying around about government fiddling the statistics - there is no evidence it ever did, it’s for the birds. The head of the EIA addressed these issues and said the adjustment was actually under reported crude as a result of the compositional change in US oil production due to shale. See here: Summary: there was a lot condensate not being counted as production by the EIA weekly but which was making its way into inventory because it was being blended with other grades of oil. The EIA 914 monthly report by contrast is not modelled, its production statistics by oil companies which are required by law to file. In July of this year production was 12.99 mb a day. US production had a tendency to accelerate in the second half of the year: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M I have no problems believe it’s at 13.2 given recent history.

Seems to me that if you have to take out a the DCF calculator it’s probably not worth buying. I think opportunities should be obvious. Exception is maybe growth companies, but even then I’ve never used it.

The Jim Cramer of economists Just exclude all the major life expenses and claim victory lol

Sure I’ve played around with it but I’ve never bought a single stock based on DCF valuation. Was playing around there with the DCF calculator on Guru focus, it uses an 11% discount rate. For those that do use DCF what discount rate do you use?

I’m not convinced they are blowing smoke, again and again the shale bros just keep breaking records. Despite the recent adjustment issues and data quality, the EIA have proven to be far more accurate than the Twitter commentators when it comes to predicting US production volumes. The latest 914 report for July has US production just under 12.99 million barrels, I have no problem believing it’s at 13.2 million barrels currently.

Takes a rare person to not let money change them. Very humble and never did it for attention or acclaim. Role model for sure.