Sweet

Suncor might be doing well now but what have they done for shareholders in the last 15 years. It’s not a company I’m familiar with but the sector as a whole just underperforms. I checked the PE - it’s at 10 a healthy multiple. I think oil price spikes higher on occasions but demand gets hurt when it does and supply responds - faster than ever. I just don’t expect multiple expansion, most companies don’t deserve it.

You looking at it incorrectly in my opinion. The reason for investing then was price which was the opportunity. We are at a level right now where much above starts to 1) disrupt demand, and 2) bring additional supply to the market. We were at $130 dollars at many oil stocks still down from their high. I was 90%+ energy in about September 2020 and now I’m about 10%, there are better opportunities IMO.

I don’t know guys. I’d argue that if you are very smart, you should be smart enough to get out of your own way.

Not to pick on Burry, but predicting tops is hard: Stanley Druckenmiller has made many similar top calls, but he’s more of a trading than investor and he still does well.

It’s not September 2020 anymore. I was 90% O&G at the time. I think energy stays a comparatively low multiple investment for many years. For you to make out from here, I think companies have to buy a hell of a lot of shares back, or pay fat dividends and many aren’t. Which comes to the major problem with these sector, in my view management generally is poor and not particularly shareholder friendly. It’s obvious what many of them should be doing yet they don’t do it.

That’s crazy and the PE is 6. These financial firms are just soo complicated that I’ve no idea how to play them.

Incredibly friendly shareholder management.

I’m not referring to his performance. Do other funds managers go off the reservation sticking their money in a macro bet outside the scope of what the investors believed the fund was about? Sure they made out well in the end, but that’s not his money to be fucking around with.

What is his track record over the last 10 years - is if public? He is no hero, he rolled the dice with his investors money. He has been top picking and recession predicting ever since. As Spek says, probably would have been better to stay away from the macro stuff.

I can’t remember the last time Burry wasn’t bearish on the market. He’s turned into one of these guys that spends his time trying to call market tops or predicting the economy is going into a recession.

Exactly yes. Production be even higher were it not for ESG, even with ESG it is already all time high. BP is really the only company that I can think of that went hard on ESG.

ESG is really only hindering production in the West. The rest of the world doesn’t give a crap. I expect energy (generally) to remain fairly static from here. The companies need to pay fat dividends and they aren’t.

Burry should take his own advice.

This. When I started investing the forum I originally posted on was full of pessimistic people calling market tops. The amount of money I lost by listening to them and not just buying equities is not worth thinking about. Valuations of the overall market might be high, but the market doesn’t have to correct anytime soon, and if it does it might manifest itself as a smaller 5 year return without a significant drop. There seems to be this expectation of a deep stock market reversal. I’ve been hearing this said for years now. I think the market valuation is lofty too, and I think rates will bring those valuations down… when and by how much is impossible to know so I just ignore. Pick your spots and avoid the hyped up shit. Nobody is forcing you to own the broad market. And fundamentally the market is different now. There are soo much monthly flows from pension funds just blindly indexing, all the time, every month. The market has an enormous wind at its back that’s hard to fight against.

“Tantalising sign of possible life on faraway world”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66786611.amp

The people calling for a recession and stock market crash this time last year were fixated on some data mined figure that stated “we never had x without a major recessions” or “a stock market correction has always followed y”. We had a recession and sure a lot of the excess was trimmed during covid. To expect another massive blow out for the economy seemed unlikely then and now.

Surprising:

To the specific claims: 1) Do you have a comparison of co-sleeping vs cot sleeping? 2) Do you know what’s the cause of the difference? Is the answer no? You didn't post anything about that. Some quotes from some of your articles: "In global terms, the idea of "training" babies to sleep alone and unaided is uncommon. Modern Mayan mothers, for example, expressed shock when they heard that in the US, babies were put to sleep in a separate room. But in North America, Australia and parts of Europe, many families swear by some form of the technique" - sleep training doesn't have to mean putting your baby alone in a separate room. What are you talking about? "Instead, it’s the expectation that babies will have night-wakings and the family’s “village” will help, whether it means getting up with the baby at night or allow Mom to nap during the day." - it's the expectation of every parent that babies will get up through the night, it's a strawman to suggest anything different. "In many countries, parents and children share the same bed for several years. This is the case in many Asian countries — babies sleep with their parents until they’re toddlers, and at that point, they move to their own small bed near their parents’ bed" - so they aren't co-sleeping after a certain age and they are being sleep trained like everyone else. "In many cultures, cosleep­ing is the norm until children are weaned" - also not co-sleeping and also involves sleep training. "In the Western world, co-sleeping isn’t exactly the norm. Here in the West, we tend to sleep our babies in cribs, in a separate nursery. Room-sharing is still popular the first 6 months or so, but other forms of co-sleeping (like co-sleeping long-term, or bed-sharing) are still more on the rare side among Western moms." - this article says co-sleeping isn't the norm, and then contradicts itself in the next sentence by saying room sharing is popular and is a form of co-sleeping. "Cosleeping is practiced in a variety of ways around the world. In Latin America, the Philippines, and Vietnam, some parents sleep with their baby in a hammock next to the bed" - since when is this co-sleeping? If this is co-sleeping then the vast majority of parents of Western parents will co-sleep too, therefore the claim that Westerners don't co-sleep is wrong. "Many experts see this as a strong argument for using sleep training to ultimately boost the whole family's wellbeing. "If we're not healthy and functioning as parents, it's very hard to look after our children and give them the love and parenting that they need" - plenty of pro-sleep training arguments in your own link.

Yes so there are some things in human history which we used to do which are good and others which we now frown upon. So let’s not herald prior human practices as proof it’s the right thing to do.

Cool - lots of anecdotes. Co-sleeping in the Western countries is associated with a higher risk of SIDS, that’s a fact. It could be different in Asia. 1) Do you have a comparison of co-sleeping vs cot sleeping? 2) Do you know what’s the cause of the difference? (Note - babies normally sleep in a cot beside the parents bed, not as some of you seem to imagine at the other end of the house). Most people in other countries don’t let their baby cry? That’s an extraordinary claim - why should I believe you? And most people in other countries don’t sleep train their babies - evidence please? Is sleep training needed? I can’t speak for everyone so I won’t because I have no idea. I do know this, from our case of twins, one was a great sleeper the other a very light sleeper. The light sleeper would briefly wake during sleep cycles and cry, wouldn’t take the bottle, just didn’t like to be alone. Ferber method allows the baby to cry for a bit, but lets them know they aren’t alone by picking them up at planned intervals. Two days of this (yes only two) and he slept much better then on, he was more rested during the day, cried way less, and mum was better rested and could provision better care. But apparently we are terrible parents even though all results in our case suggest it’s beneficial for our baby. Sleep training is not just ‘letting your baby cry’ - that’s cruel.

Largely my own experience. I tried it for years. There are small edges in the market but it’s god awful boring and it doesn’t suit my personality. I gave up on it and just only do investing now. Some people just can’t buy on big drops they like confirmation signals. It’s not for me. It clear some guys like Druckenmiller use technical analysis alongside their fundamental analysis.

My only point about TA is that you initially said they always work at cross purposes to each other. That depends entirely how it is used, for the most part I would agree but there are systems that combine them. Regarding value investing, and predictions. I think in many cases we are predicting future price through valuation. Some companies don’t pay a dividend so we depend on the market quoting a reasonable price. Unlike the Buffetts of the world we plebs aren’t buying entire companies and are at the mercy of management and market quotes.

Only if you are using technical analysis to trade and invest. If you are using a fundamental filter, like value, then that’s your predictive tool. In this case, the technicals are NOT trying to predict the future, your valuation is doing that. The technicals just get you in and maybe out.

Human parents have co-slept throughout history, and that’s good? Human parents spanked throughout history, and that’s bad? Co-sleeping is strongly associated with Sudden Infant Death Syndrome in young children. There are probably safer ways to co-sleep but the risk of SIDS is still higher. Reason enough to not co-sleep because dead kids definitely don’t develop well. Not sure why all the talk about co-sleeping parents caring more then.

Didn’t realise so many in the board had young children. It’s hell at times, let’s be honest.