Sweet

I agree, it’s not a sector you hold long term unless you get an unbelievable entry price. Even then, there is a question mark over how long the industry is required.

There has been a bullish story in oi all year but it’s been a year of up first half and down second half. Perma bulls saying throughout the year, wait until the SPR is done, when China comes back, when Russian price cap comes into force etc… oil didn’t care. The key here for investors is still US shale discipline. They can’t be growing production more than global consumption growth. If they stay disciplined oil prices will sit at a level where energy equity investors should make some money. Shale is not the marginal barrel.

A little over a week ago he said he had less than $100k. Today he just posted bail for $250 million

USSR won both their wars with Finland - it’s not a draw when the USSR gets more than it demanded before the war began.

Is 13 years is long term history? Most people in crypto have been in it for a few years only. This thread is from 2017 - 5 years. Who buys crypto as a store of value? What I see is people buying it in the hope of making it rich. I would buy it for that reason. As a store of value, it’s supposedly an argument for crypto, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a person actually buying for that reason. Is that really why you bought it?

Has anyone seen this? At this stage she is behaving like a crook because I can’t see this as being anything other than grossly misleading. Best case scenario is she is totally delusional.

I don’t mean built in to max the use of the engine, I mean something smallish which can be attached and run while the car is idling. Not viable? There has to be a reason why it’s not been done.

Yes it’s a good idea and attractive to many including myself. I often wonder why no ICE cars are designed to double as an electric generator.

Bear in mind that this is peak prices, it’s not representative over the day. Journalists do like a bit of exaggeration… still it’s bloody expensive:

The end customer pays their energy company a flat rate which can be adjusted on a monthly basis. The price the energy companies pay is the wholesale price of energy, and they take the market rate when they need energy. Yes, some companies do offer incentives for using energy off peak demand, one particular company was offering a rebate on some bills if they avoided using electricity at the peak morning and evening times.

It’s maybe not as bad on the continent, but still bad there too. The figure above is peak demand, from 5-6pm only. Average daily price perhaps is £600ish. Still expensive. UK is somewhat fortunate that we get half our Natural Gas from the North Sea fields. Yes limited storage of natural gas as you say, however a large storage terminal was reopened this winter because it is now economical at the higher gas prices. We have an over reliance on wind power which can produce roughly half of UK electricity. It has lead to complacency. The UK is ok if it is cold and windy… but cold and calm for long periods = trouble. I think we will struggle to keep the lights on all winter. I have been preparing for blackouts since the summer. I bought a petrol to electricity generator and got an electrician to hook it up to our house’s circuit. Hope I don’t need it.

Greetings from the UK where low temperature and zero wind have combined to drive peak electricity prices to an all time high of >£2,600 Mega Watt Hour. The high prices are here… again.

Ed Morse was the only guy who got the back end of the year correct: https://www.bloomberg.com/media-manifest/videos/android/WiFi/8e875ff8-7157-4193-8835-c707adb0a8c8.m3u8?idType=BMMP

I would go with Vanguard for the expense ratio. If you managed to buy during periods when the index is down a lot you’d have a good chance of producing a return that would beat almost all active managers. Indexing is definitely my preferred approach when buying into a sector where I can’t be sure what companies will last and which won’t. Obviously if you could buy a Google or an Apple at inception, and hold that would be better, but very difficult to do.

I agree Spec, I think Europe will rumble on through. I think the biggest risk isn’t heat though, it’s electricity generation. To add to you risk of extreme cold I also say a lack of wind power.

I’ve come to a similar conclusion about buying and holding companies. My biggest mistakes, by far, were selling good companies. An obvious problem with this approach is that you largely select out technology companies. Companies that tend to stick around for the long haul tend to be those that provide something fundamental that’s hard to replace. An alternative and boring approach to this problem is to index into technology. That way you don’t ever have to pick a winner and you largely remove survivorship bias. Despite the massive drawdowns the Nasdaq has comfortably outperformed the SP-500 since inception. I think we need to be long human ingenuity in some way. And I think an argument can be made that is value investing of a kind.

Let’s not forget the oil price predictions at $120 a barrel. Only BoA was calling for it lower.

Yes I think you are right.

^ China is for sure a bear case too. Overall though, I do think higher for longer mantra is about right. Will energy companies reprice in at higher multiples, yes, but I think probably not as much as people might expect. I do think energy has a much longer runway than the mainstream view, Larry Fink says 70 years - not sure about that long but certainly multiple decades.

What if it never returns to those averages @dealraker ? Many view fossil fuels as a dying industry, and with the rise of environmental investing, a lot less are interested in it. I don’t agree with any of that, but others do, and that is a headwind.

@Blugolds11 an argument could be made for sedation I agree. However that needs to be a separate stand along trial judged on its own merits. I also agree this isn’t about politics either, Alex Jones is just a nut job.

The bear case, if you can call it that, is the world has plenty of oil, either through production or inventory buffer. Some of the bullish narratives do appear over done.

Combined with turning radiators off, and not using electricity at peak times. I read that one company was paying their customers to not use electricity late at night to reduce peak load.

Words definitely and rightly have consequences, and often the area isn’t clear, but incitement is punishable. I don’t know much about Alex Jones, so if you want to tell what specifically he has said that deserves jail time I’m all ears.

Did Alex Jones blackmail someone (which is illegal) and then that person killed themselves? I don’t follow the comparison if he didn’t. I can understand the Canadian example. Regarding the sum of money, I know it’s as much about deterrence but it’s still wrong in my view. There are two wrongs, and I find it shocking that otherwise sane people are advocating for punishment amounting to $1.5 billion. I don’t find anything Alex Jones does shocking because he is a nut job to be ignored. Can you not see how the former is more worrying lol?