Sweet

The last paragraph is a brutal lesson.

There used to be data on this on Great Britain vs Ireland. The Irish had a lower IQ than those from Great Britain. The gap was significant at one point, like 10+ IQ points but it’s nearly completely closed. IQ is malleable and associated with economic development and strongly influenced by culture (like how involved your parents are). There is obviously a genetic component to IQ though and it would be silly to think there isn’t. It’s controversial subject, not funded well, and I don’t think anybody really knows what drives it.

Outcome - discrimination.

He is trying to insert a further wedge between the US and EU. He’s playing to what Trump cares about, investment in the US, and he’s tempting him with a big pile of money. Scenario: Trump might see the money as a form of payback to America from Europe for underspending on NATO defence. He might demand that such money is released because it’s an important part of the peace negotiations. If Europe refuse Putin and Trump might then claim Europe is standing in the way of peace. So basically he’s tempting Trump’s greed.

Putin is clever.

Morgan Stanley predictions about the hit to predictions

I watched the video. I could give a crap what he is like in private. He doesn’t govern that way. Although my opinion is mostly invalid since I’m not American - although many close to me are.

British yes (not English though). We try to be polite, the English are especially polite.

The way rudeness has slipped into casual discourse has pissed me off. However, I don't think it started with anyone side, just that Trump and his team have taken it to the next level. I remember well the John McCain and Mitt Romney were racist stuff. Obama and others accusing Trump of siding with Neo Nazis - it's just more highbrow name calling.

Lol ‘more art of the deal than art war’ - it is getting memed quite badly now. Intel had 25ish % of revenue in China in 2023, however it was going to lose that in spite of Trumps tariffs because China had already enacted legislation that amounts to a ban on US chips: https://www.pcmag.com/news/china-reportedly-phasing-out-intel-amd-chips-from-government-computers (March 2024) https://www.pcmag.com/news/china-ditch-intel-amd-chips-telecom-networks (April 2024) I just don’t know what Trumps plan was when he goes around pissing off America’s allies. Either there was no plan. Or he thought America had such a strong hand that it could effectively bully everyone collectively - which is an idiotic plan. Directionally I think this US-China trade war is kinda of necessary but the execution has been terrible.

"Trump's chips strategy: The US will struggle to take on Asia" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd9ljwgg9y0o Forget the headline. The article is interesting and actually from my reading of it, demonstrate why something needs to be done about manufacturing in the US, and Europe too (hope they are watching). You can't have such important products being manufactured in only one region of the world. I think Trump admin's execution leaves much to be desired. This is a 5-10 process, slapping huge tariffs may not speed up the process, might actually hurt the build out of factories - who knows.

I ignore this guy. He’s been honking his bearish horn for years (decade maybe?), same arguments then, same argument now. All of what he says is relevant, but he’s saying it all the time, and he’s wheeled out every time there is market turmoil.

If the Trump admin knew they were going to get into a trade war with China, why did they go around picking fights with their allies before embarking on one? It was the wrong moment to berate and threaten when it turns out it is exactly the same moment when the US needs their help. Trump may need to eat some humble pie to get people on side.

A huge amount of it. Doesn’t negate the point about Chinese subsidies though and their unfair trade practices. But yes, somewhat deceiving.

That’s generous. How do you stop a war from happening if the other side is intent on having a war. Just cave in all their demands? Putin started it - correct. Zelenskyy did not, so why does he keep saying that?

I see this a lot, there are still quite a number of people who think they would be better off working a manufacturing job. Not everyone is going to want to work in manufacturing, or would benefit from working at a factory, but some clearly are OK with it. More than I expected to be honest - over 20%

Why sell calls? Seems risky.

Yeh, it’s just ridiculous. Nobody can trust this guy. Not on truth telling, not on agreements he previously signed.

Sigh, more lies.

Unfortunately after putting a lot of cash to work last week I have lightened up again. No net loss on anything I bought. Think current chaos with admin makes it an unfavourable time to be opening new positions. This past seven days have been absolute chaos. Pretty sure we are in a recession too.

In many respects this makes sense, but does the macro change anything in Europe with regard to the stocks they have now or will have in the future? America is still likely to be the engine of innovation and startups, it's not just tariffs it's culture. Being a billionaire in Europe is often looked down upon, top rate of tax in some European countries is near 55%, and capital gains tax can be as high as mid 40s. Significantly higher than the US. The tariffs themselves, they will absolutely have an effect short term, but long-term what are they likely to be - if we arrive at a 'national security' tariff situation. Should be a lot more sensible. Europe needs to make some significant changes in regulations and policy to encourage more growth and innovation. Among which should be rewarding investors and entrepreneurs.

Art of the deal - apparently.

It looked like it was going to rip, now it looks like the opposite with Lutnick and now apparently rare mineral export ban from China.

It’s just mayhem. Nobody knows what the tariff policy is going to be in the next few hours nevermind 1 month, year or term.