Sweet

Because there is a huge commercial and strategic buffer. But yeh, don’t listen to the oil bros, they are always simping massive oil prices. A war with Iran was their wet dream.

Of all the comments in this thread this is the most important one. Get active, get healthy, and be there for your son / daughter as long as you possibly can.

Congrats. Being an older dad has some benefits, such as increased patience, and hopefully you are financially stable and able to spend a lot of time with them. My advice, a cliche, is that each child is different and develops at their own pace, sometimes they might be fast at doing something, other times a year or even two behind. Also, don’t give them iPads, keep TV to an hour a day if you can.

Real soccer fans call it football, the other game is a load of dudes on steroids playing pass the hand egg. In all seriousness, pretty cool, and weather looks amazing.

@whatstheofficerproblem last 4-6 posts ITT have been the most realistic and clear headed views I’ve read on AI. An antidote to the tech bros bullshit. Very good stuff, thanks.

Think it’s democracies in general, not just the US. I think democracies need to be tougher. Too easy to say, not my war. Seen it with Ukraine, see it here, ironically many people are straddling both camps depending on the war.

Wouldn’t say they are stronger than before, but largely agree. The war aims were to stop Iran getting a nuke. If the war ends and Iran just starts enriching weapons grade uranium and further developing ballistic missiles then it’s most definitely a strategic win for Iran. Iran might have had their military wrecked, they might have had serious set-backs, but war has goals and aims, and if the US and Israel fails to achieve their prewar goals their campaign has failed whatever their other successes. It’s too soon to predict an ending, but without troops on the ground the US and Israel are leaving it to fate.

There are shortage if you know where to look. US and Canada are most immune.

What metrics are you looking at Spek? Bro has grown revenue faster and has a lower multiple. I thought about a general basket of these but decided also to just go with Bro. May change my mind though. I don’t really understand Ryan.

There were a couple of us that looked at it a few years ago in the Tidbits thread. At the time, at face value it looked cheap and was buying back shares. When we dug into it, the reason why it was doing so well at the time was the second hand car market prices. I can’t recall the numbers, but if you assumed the second hand car market prices would return to a pre-covid baseline it didn’t look that hot anymore. I think Ackman recently took a position - a month ago - citing expectations of second hand car prices to rise again. That’s probably the reason for the short squeeze.

Do you have it as a basket of brokers, or just owning what you regard as the best performer?

Wasn’t aware of this until dwy mentioned it yesterday, but from reading the structure has fundamentally changed. Those Lloyd names lost everything, now it’s done through a limited liability structure so only the capital in that structure is at risk. That’s my understanding of it.

Of course I am. I said ‘this lady could’. Much of what follows is speculation. However, there is some evidence that she is one of these Karen types. Given the language she used, ‘safe work environment’, and that the worst thing mentioned in the article was a comment by the BA’s nephew about her being looking good for an older lady. I’m speculating again, but IF that’s the worst thing that happened this lady, she’s just a moron.

You’re assuming quite a bit yourself unless you know the inside line? This lady could have been one of these Karen’s primed to take even the mildest of comments the wrong way. We can’t know for sure without the full details, but given the worst thing that happened to her in the article is a comment about looking good for her age, followed by the the woke jargon of adding to an ‘unsafe work environment’, it immediately casts doubt on her credibility. It’s basically a rehearsed line at this point lacking in authenticity. Nobody wants to play these silly games anymore. Normal people are sick of pretending that the minor grievances of the easily offended are actually important.

Yeh, they are more efficient now, but they were also drilling so many wells years ago and leaving them uncompleted so they could be tapped later date.

If DUCs have bottom out you might finally have some discipline, and prices might start to trend more closely with rigs.

If you zoom out and overlay US oil production you can see that they don’t always trend together.

On the US oil side? These guys have historically grown production when they can, even when it didn’t make sense to do so. Many of these oil companies are terribly ran and don’t give a crap about shareholder return. Not saying they will this time just that historically they haven’t always been rational.

Before all eligible males were supposed to sign up anyway. This just makes that automatic. It’s not really a change in policy, just a change in how it’s administered.

Canada can load at the Gulf of Mexico. They are probably the biggest winners in all this because it’s their crude which is needed.

The market can only rebalance so much. America doesn’t produce enough oil to compensate for the oil lost and it can’t ramp it up that quickly. It also doesn’t produce the right grade of oil to replace the mostly heavy oil prevented from leaving the Middle East. The increase exports of US oil and products ultimately means higher US prices, not something Trump is going like.

I hope you bought, like you said you would, on Friday.

Lol. That one was funny.

A tax rate introduced by our supposedly pro-business Conservative Party. The ban on drilling was recently implemented by Labour. The UK government keeps lowballing the amount of energy in the North Sea and then uses it as justification for no more drilling by claiming ‘it’s running out anyway’.

Trump now says as much deranged stuff as Biden did. I don't read what Trump writes at all anymore. He's like an angry old man you occasionally encounter, that goes on a rant about random things, except in most cases you just give the old guy a hot tea and put him to bed early in the hope he will wake up in a better mood in the morning. At least Biden was an affable older guy who said whacky stuff.