Sweet

Historically volatility has been good for me because I seem to be able to pick up bargains. Hopefully that’s still the case going forward. On the broader point I’m making, a normal market doesn’t move 10% down one day and 10% up the next.

Not sure if that is a good sign. The volatility clearly hasn’t gone.

I know, although the bid and ask on IB where at that price. I don’t see it staying at that level after open.

Agree. I think the most surprising is BAC, not sure why it is down 10%. I would have though rate cuts incoming would have been good for BAC giving their unrealised losses.

BAC is down 10% on IB, wonder if that is a mistake on IB or real, can’t see it anywhere else. Edit: AMZN down 10% too META down 10% GOOG down 10% ABNB down 10% TSLA down 8% UBER down 12% Nasdaq 100 down 6% Most surprising of all, C only down 3% lol.

Got a decent cash pile for a few months now but not 50% - dam. Not seeing anything that is fat enough worth pitching at right now.

I’m all for guys like who are just front running their viewership getting wrecked but I feel like there is a grey area too.

I was thinking the same. The report did say that the most obvious feature of the top 17 companies is they have survived. One feature of many that I’ve observed is that produce simple products, items unlikely to be replaced easily. Some have annual returns over of just over 13% annually but they delivered because they’ve been around so long. In some cases, as Spek said, some of the companies have been struggling, WBA is one, so the annual returns were significantly higher at some point in the past. In an era were technology is so important, are new companies likely to have such a long life? Probably not. There might not be a lesson for future stock picking in such a tech dominant time.

I was surprised that there wasn’t a single bank on the list.

This is insane

One of the more interesting articles from CNBC about a Finnish bank called Nordea Bank - which I’ve never heard of before. https://archive.ph/qn7gi PE of 8, divy 9%, but stock has done nothing for nearly 20 years.

1. Earning yield affects pricing. 2. Competition for market share. 3. Agree.

Believe this is a video of the attack that killed so many yesterday.

I think this might be wrong in potentially two ways. 1. Companies cut costs with AI which results in larger profit margins which means more income for shareholders. 2. Companies cut costs with AI, they cut costs for consumers, consumers have more money, economy grows. I know jobs will be lost with AI, certain services will get hit hard, but overall I don’t think we are going to lose half the workforce for instance…. I hope I’m right because if we did it would be chaos.

Agree with this. There was so much talk about getting they out, getting them IPO’d, all bs. No reason to think any different.

https://www.be-long.co/#hiw Came across this company today. It’s a UK based company that is looking to (in their words) provide you with a ‘mortgage’ type loan which you then invest in stocks. You then pay that principle down like you would do with a regular long term mortgage and hope your investment grows in value over that time.

Must check these out, find little to watch on normal TV.

Small position DE

How well has the Shiller PE worked in the past 10 years? It’s been terrible for people who followed it. WSJ is reporting that the PE of the SP-500 is 23.6 and the 1-year forward PE 21. The Nasdaq is 31 and a 1yr fwd of 28: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields For comparison, during the dot.com bubble the SP-500 PE was 45 and the Nasdaq PE was 200.

Thanks Spek. What are the two right most columns. Presumably both of them are share count reduction over different periods. I still think Avis is interesting, although I don’t own anything. Autonation as well, looked at it before and passed though.

Market just moves to CPI print these days and Nvidia earnings. Just dumb but that’s the way it is.

Completely agree.

CNH looks interesting. Cheap in a GAAP earnings basis but why is FCF looks pretty rubbish. If the business is sound it should be trading at a higher multiple

It doesn’t have a 100% track record, it has produced a false single before and will do again: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2018/03/economic-forecasts-with-yield-curve/ And what use is it anyway if it doesn’t tell you a) when the recession might arrive, and b) what stocks will do anyway. I remember lots of chatter about 18 months ago that the yield curve predicts a recession, and the stock market never bottoms before a recession, and yet the market has ripped to new all time highs.