Sweet

The current headline tax rate on upstream oil and gas companies operating in the UK is 78%. This can be offset somewhat by net zero investments, potentially other capex spending, but that’s the headline rate. There is also a ban on any new drilling, even if they find a new area with billions of barrels of oil or oil equivalents.

It’s a managed decline. You can still produce all the energy you need from the North Sea and push for net zero. But no, the idiots that be that decided to stop all new O&G and slap on a tax rate that was nearly 70% of profits, before they even have a net zero base load of nuclear and renewables. If they were really serious we would have nuclear power coming out of our ass and we don’t.

Ray Dalio - maybe best contrarian indicator in the market. The RaD indicator.

Good luck making money off Dalio’s macro calls brother.

Ray Dalio again with almost certainly another idiotic macro call: “Ray Dalio says the Iran conflict could evolve into the next world war.” He’s been wrong a thousand times now.

Very unlikely.

Some predictions this morning about $200 oil on MarketWatch which normally heralds a top. This time though I could see it get near those levels if there is escalation in Iran.

Far more Europeans died fighting America’s wars in the last 30 years than vice versa. America did very little in Falklands and took a supporting role in Lybia. I’m very sympathic to America has done too much, and Europeans doing too little, but if you measure it by the most important metric of all - dead soldiers - it’s a very different story. And it’s ungrateful to. Moreover, ther have been times when the US actively undermined Europeans looking after themselves. All forgotten for some reason.

I understand why you would say that, but he’s also the embodiment of ‘every problem requires a hammer’. He’s breaking more than he’s fixing. I think I’d agree with most of his agenda though. Thing is, I don’t know of anyone else who would be brave enough to take all this on. Until someone else can grow a spine like him you are sorta stuck with all his flaws.

As several others have said ITT, Trump is spectacularly good at identifying issues that need addressed - but his implementation has been awful. I would be very supportive of his policies generally, but man has he sucked at implementing his agenda.

So you’re saying there were signs? lol. A few years ago people would be complaining about shaming this doll. You reckon?

WTF is wrong with him lol. Imagine doing this to your wife and kids.

Whatever the case, it’s kind of obvious even to those with little expertise in the subject, that the Iran war hadn’t been gamed out sufficiently. This has been as bad as Venezuela was good.. Trump could yet etch out a fix here though, he has the levers he can pull. I wouldn’t expect the ‘allies’ to help, not least because they weren’t asked initially, but when you go around treating your friends like shit you can’t really expect to jump when you say how high.

The was an article about Gates and Buffett’s relationship quite a while ago, about how it had soured a bit, this was before the Epstein / STD stuff. https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-warren-buffett-friendship-history-fallout

Really depends on how long this middle east stuff rumbles on. Like many others I assume it will be weeks / months, but you never really know.

I subscribed to H. Marks and then unsubscribed a few weeks later. Dalio, a bit like Burry, the guy who called the 08 housing crisis is often how he is introduced, just terrible to read. I like Druckenmiller, he calls himself out, and he clearly doesn’t pay much attention to his own calls - the only guy from the above who doesn’t take himself too seriously.

Does Dalio have a 50/50 record? I think that’s generous. Gundlach, Druckenmiller, Burry etc etc, their macro calls have been just terrible. Blake is right the deficit and debt is a problem but it can be fixed too.

Buffett has been sounding the alarm about the deficit for a longtime but he certainly not saying don’t buy stocks in the next 10 years.

Now post what Buffett said about predicting macro. You’re cherry picking and fudging a narrative.

I don’t know anyone who is actually good at predicting macro. Some of the biggest and best investors in the world, their macro calls have been terrible.

I don't trust anything Trump says and I don't trust anything Iran says either. You'd have to be very gullible to take anything that is said publicly about negotiations at face value.

You have literally no idea what is happening in secret and it’s puzzling to see you pretending that you do.

Trump seems to have always been a bit like this, the worst part is definitely all those lining up to kiss his ass in a way which they previously would never do. Some of them would suck his dick if they thought it would put them in Trump’s good graces.

Without your counter narrative approach, there is a chance the forum would slip into a one-sided Trump hating abyss. Part of it is you just aggressively pushing the other side of the scale.

Life comes at you fast when adulting: