Sweet

Taking out London is problematic and not really comparable to taking out Munich and San Fransico. London has a much larger GDP than either, and the UK has a smaller GDP overall than Germany and way smaller than America. That’s not to say there isn’t a broader issuer, because there is. Too big of a public sector, too much benefits. too much immigration pushing down wages and inflating things like house prices = less money for spending. Lack of entrepreneurial spirit. I don’t know, I feel like there are many causes.

Just a cool video of the new HQ for JPM:

John Huber is great, I used to follow his writings and his 13F. Saber Capital hasn’t updated their 13F for two years, anyone know why?

You have to wonder why the weapons transfer to Ukraine needs a public announcement. Send the weapons and if the Russians accuse you shrug your shoulders and say they aren’t ours.

I’m not predicting a bubble, or trying to time the market, but there is nothing I’m tempted to buy, and I have an urge to raise cash.

It’s tongue in cheek, but many hate hearing the opposing take. You’re actually somewhat of an exception, many in your position would have just banned a load of people.

Many thinks it’s divisive that conservatives are allowed a speak at all. Must be tough hearing opposing views when it’s been left wing talking points dominating the internet for decades.

Do yourself a favour and just mute LC, he’s completely lost it, and it’s not worth your valuable time.

I have no idea what sequence you are running through your head with the above diatribe, or the imagined conversations. I find it hard to believe that you guys don’t have common or preferred getting wiped out as a possibility and a new entity with a new share structure created instead. I’ve been in an out of FNMA several times, and there were times when the share price was low that this was thought to be a real possibility. Apparently not anymore. If I’m the Treasury and I’m trying to maximise the value for the Treasury, why would I want complicating and dilution common and junior preferred ownership?

Yes I have, though this is coming on 8 years ago! Sorry. If it is in addition, and the preference is 300 bn liquidation, plus the warrants... then yeh common is going to get roasted. Trump was talking the other day about getting troops paid. He's on the scrounge for money. And if this whole saga has taught me anything its that the government can act first and kick the litigation down the road. Trump is a person who will side skirt normal spending rules if he can, and I believe in a government shutdown, the executive office have much more power on spending decisions.

Why don't you think receivership is on option? I just don't see any safety anywhere here. With regards to the common, say Fannie is 500 bn company, common currently trade at 14 billion. Treasury SPS is 80% of ownership through warrants, fully converted that increases share count from 1.16 billion shares to 6 billion. 500 bn / 6 bn = 83 dollars a share. I know juniors could be converted to, unsure of the par market value of the juniors, but I see plenty of upside for commons. At 250 bn market cap, commons 40 ish. At 100 bn market cap, commons still have upside at 16 ish. What am I missing?

Do you guys really think the gov is going to write off the senior preferred? The government wants the money, it’s especially important to trump with the shut down. I could see all shareholders (preferred and common)wiped out. What about Trump’s friends who are invested? He could give them foreknowledge of their plan so they could quietly exit.

Yeh, I’ve got no sympathy. I see all the talking heads moaning about political prosecutions were the same people egging it on when Trump and his circle were hounded for 8 years and dragged through the courts. The right don’t care what the left think anymore so all this moralising is falling on deaf ears because when the shoe was on the other foot they did it with glee.

No idea what Pulte is suggesting. However I flicked through the 10-K, and it makes clear that common and preferred could get wiped out on conservativeship exit. I’ve always been of the view that nothing here is safe. I’ve said before, after being in an out of this POS many times, that is rather wait for IPO and risk not making any gains than risk losing it all.

I haven’t read anything about the Obama stuff, but I also think there should be a full investigation into everything that went on regarding Russiagate, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Obama was involved. That’s not why I posted though, just that there was quite a bit of media coverage about it.

This was reported on widely, from Fox to the NYT. Very easy to find news reports dated to just after the release.

Did he actually do that though? I believe he tried to certain halt certification, probably with a view to finding fraud and overturning the election. Violently though? Don’t see that.

Obama, just says nice things, gets the Nobel peace prize. Trump, actually involved in ending wars - can’t get the prize because he doesn’t always say nice things. The whole thing is a joke, no idea why Trump even covets it.

It blows my mind how disingenuous some people are. ICE are dressed like that because they have to be. People are doxing them, posting locations of ICE raids, stoning their vehicles and even shooting at them. So why the fuck is anyone surprised they cover up.

I suspect the biggest issue is the deposit nowadays.

This cuts both ways, those who hate him and can't see straight are just as bad, and I reckon there are far more of them.

I didn’t even measure it at 10%, just 8%. All I’m saying is the rates of repayment are roughly the same today vs then. It was probably harder to get that 30% deposit today vs then.

Factoring in interest rates on a 25 year repayment, with 30% down, the cost of repayment is 23% of your gross yearly salary in 1985, and 26% of your gross yearly salary in 2025. For the calculation I used the federal funds at just over 4% today, and just under 8% this day in 1985.

We don’t see comparable rates among most other ethnic groups from low socio-economic. Things start to make sense when you listen to some rap music, see some of the pictures posted by these inner city guys. Many of them venerate gang and thug culture but everyone is afraid to call out this destructive culture in case it’s deemed racist.