Sweet

Happy new year and all the best for the new year.

Lol, yes. He is excellent though, and his classes are much more than valuations, you learn about finance, modelling, capital and all sorts of other things. I regularly check his blog - especially if he covers companies I own or thinking about owning.

This. If you have to get out you calculator and run all sorts of models then it’s probably a pass.

What’s the ticker? Are you talking about PKW?

What or who is causing this pump?

Much sequencing, outside of places like hospitals, is performed by sequencing providers. Most of these providers offer multiple types of sequencing approaches to their customers. Typically Illumina and a long-read approach which has usually been Pacbio but some have all three. The Pacbio instrument are hugely expensive but if you are a large dedicated sequencing provider you tend to just swallow the costs if that’s what your clients want. The Oxford Nanopore basic sequencer can be bought for $1k making it by far the cheapest sequencer around. The technology is very different too. Short-reads aren’t bad they just aren’t as good as long-reads all else being equal. It’s simply more information. Illumina still have a cost advantage over both Pacbio and Oxford Nanopore but it’s narrowing fast. The long-read offering from Illumina makes sense they had to develop that. How good it is nobody knows because it’s really only just on the market. I’m not saying Illumina or Pacbio are bad bets. I suppose I’m saying why own Illumina and Pacbio but not Oxford Nanopore which has by far the most interesting technology. I am somewhat skeptical about the economics of Pacbio, uncertain about Illumina’s future and unsure that Oxford Nanopore are able to execute. There is also the possibility that another company comes out with a new technology and just cleans up. I guess the more I know the more I tend to think let’s just buy a biotech etf

Yes but what if the tech just moves on, and Illumina goes the way of Sanger?

A few years ago maybe. The latest chemistry improvement from Oxford Nanopore has brought the accuracy from 95% to 99%. It’s not as accurate as Illumina or Pacbio yet but it is getting there and will likely match them in the next few years. All else being equal the longer the read the better, there is no benefit to short reads and that’s a problem for Illumina - they are trying to bring out long reads.

Got the table below from https://microcapclub.com/multibaggers/ which is run by Ian Cassel. They look for small caps that are many multibaggers. It’s the second time today I’ve seen XPEL. Might be of interest to some. Hopefully the table formats ok 1 Company Symbol DWP PWP Price Today/ *Takeout Price Currebt Return 2 XPEL XPEL 6/10/13 $0.36 $56.16 13597.56% 3 Celsius Holdings CELH 7/10/19 $4.25 $50.04 3423.94% 4 Straight Path Communications STRP* 10/2/13 $5.58 $184.00 3197.49% 5 Napco Security Technologies NSSC 12/18/11 $2.15 $34.72 3144.86% 6 HemaCare HEMA* 2/23/17 $1.00 $25.40 2440.00% 7 US Concrete USCR* 11/17/11 $3.12 $74.00 2271.79% 8 Heska Corp HSKA* 10/22/13 $5.74 $120.00 1990.59% 9 Smith Midland SMID 1/25/13 $1.89 $38.00 1910.58% 10 Willdan Group WLDN 8/28/12 $1.21 $21.69 1692.56% 11 BioSyent CVE:RX 2/17/12 $0.55 $9.05 1408.33% 12 Zynex ZYXI 11/16/11 $0.75 $10.64 1318.67% 13 BlueLinx Holdings BXC 9/29/16 $9.87 $113.59 1192.26% 14 EVI Industries EVI 11/16/12 $1.89 $23.99 1169.31% 15 Neogenomics NEO 7/13/12 $1.80 $20.73 1051.67% 16 NV5 Holdings NVEE 4/23/14 $10.00 $112.28 1033.00% 17 Positron POSC 3/29/20 $0.13 $1.45 1015.38% 18 Goeasy TSE:GSY 2/3/14 $15.10 $160.57 962.67% 19 FitLife Brands FTLF 7/4/14 $2.09 $21.06 907.66% 20 KORU Medical Systems KRMD 6/11/14 $0.29 $2.38 852.00% 21 Transcat TRNS 5/17/17 $11.90 $107.65 812.29% 22 Centrus Energy LEU 4/24/20 $6.18 $54.17 776.54% 23 Galaxy Gaming GLXZ 10/3/11 $0.24 $2.05 754.17% 24 UFP Technologies UFPT 6/28/16 $21.16 $176.60 753.14% 25 Ergomed PLC LON:ERGO 1/18/16 $166.00 $1,346.00 710.84% 26 Amryt Pharma AMYT* 11/22/20 $1.58 $12.50 689.14% 27 Photon Control PHO.TO* 7/23/14 $0.47 $3.60 665.96% 28 Pro-Dex PDEX 7/19/14 $2.14 $17.21 661.50% 29 Impinj PI 2/17/18 $11.07 $88.01 629.77% 30 Caesars Entertainment CZR 4/14/15 $6.62 $46.82 607.25% 31 InfuSystems INFU 3/19/13 $1.58 $10.70 603.95% 32 OneSoft Solutions CVE:OSS 8/6/15 $0.11 $0.75 581.82% 33 Evergreen Gaming TNA.V* 5/15/16 $0.13 $0.89 581.06% 34 Misonix MSON* 11/7/12 $4.12 $28.00 579.61% 35 Where Food Comes From WFCF 3/2/12 $2.00 $13.51 575.50% 36 TechPrecision Corp. TPCS 1/25/16 $0.68 $5.50 570.73% 37 Global Atomic TSE:GLO 2/29/20 $0.40 $2.74 568.29% 38 Gentium SpA GENT* 2/2/12 $8.45 $56.00 562.72% 39 Luna Innovations LUNA 6/12/15 $1.10 $7.10 551.38% 40 DocGo DCGO 5/16/21 $9.99 $5.39 539.00% 41 RCI Hospitality Holdings RICK 5/26/14 $10.50 $66.45 532.86% 42 Score Media and Gaming SCR.TO* 11/11/19 $5.90 $36.51 518.73% 43 Attunity ATTU* 4/26/12 $3.80 $23.50 518.42% 44 Total Telecom CVE:TTZ 12/20/16 $0.07 $0.49 512.50% 45 Green Brick Partners GRBK 12/5/14 $8.31 $52.57 511.28% 46 Tornado Global Hydrovacs CVE:TGH 1/5/17 $0.08 $0.48 500.00% 47 Dot Hill Systems HILL* 4/12/13 $1.67 $9.75 483.83% 48 Simulations Plus SLP 7/12/16 $7.77 $45.41 470.48% 49 Trisura TSE:TSU 7/16/17 $23.71 $33.86 467.17% 50 Kneat.com TSE:KSI 1/8/17 $0.50 $3.00 445.45% 51 Optex Systems OPXS 7/18/18 $1.10 $5.99 444.55% 52 AMREP Corporation AXR 1/13/16 $4.10 $21.75 437.04% 53 EACO Corporation EACO 4/4/15 $6.25 $33.85 428.08% 54 Idaho Strategic Resources IDR 12/19/13 $1.26 $6.20 421.01% 55 Genie Energy GNE 8/12/21 $6.06 $29.50 386.80% 56 Sono-Tek SOTK 7/8/14 $1.20 $5.52 375.86% 57 Liberator Medical LBMH* 1/11/13 $0.71 $3.35 371.83% 58 Collectors Universe CLCT* 4/22/20 $19.57 $92.00 370.11% 59 Alphatec Holdings ATEC 10/2/17 $2.65 $15.09 368.63% 60 Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals CLVLY 4/28/15 $2.35 $10.97 366.81% 61 Viemed Healthcare TSE:VMD 1/4/18 $2.10 $10.45 366.52% 62 Docebo TSE:DCBO 10/10/19 $11.41 $67.97 344.25% 63 Arcturus Therapeutics ARCT 8/17/17 $7.14 $31.70 343.98% 64 Torotel TTLO* 8/28/19 $1.40 $6.17 340.71% 65 Ducommun DCO 4/5/12 $11.77 $51.75 339.68% 66 OptimizeRx OPRX 3/8/12 $3.30 $14.00 324.24% 67 Electromed ELMD 3/24/15 $2.50 $10.64 320.55% 68 eXp World Holdings EXPI 5/28/17 $3.65 $15.19 316.16% 69 LiveChat Software WSE:LVC 8/9/19 $35.60 $147.80 315.17% 70 Fab-Form Industries CVE:FBF 3/9/17 $0.40 $1.66 315.00% 71 Sapiens SPNS 2/10/14 $7.30 $29.20 310.69% 72 Hamilton Thorne TSE:HTL 11/30/14 $0.36 $1.35 309.09% 73 Mama's Creations MAMA 7/24/17 $1.15 $4.66 305.22% 74 Valeura Energy TSE:VLE 3/28/16 $0.72 $2.91 304.17% 75 Energy Fuels UUUU 11/11/19 $1.96 $7.68 291.84% 76 Research Solutions RSSS 3/2/16 $0.60 $2.65 289.71% 77 ADF Group TSE:DRX 2/16/21 $1.72 $7.01 289.44% 78 Propel Media PROM 7/27/18 $0.21 $0.89 286.96% 79 Solitron Devices SODI 11/30/20 $4.12 $15.89 285.68% 80 PharmChem PCHM 12/5/16 $0.69 $2.65 284.06% 81 IBEX Technology CVE:IBT 2/11/21 $0.29 $1.14 280.00% 82 IMImobile PLC IMO.L* 12/28/16 $157.00 $595.00 278.98% 83 Butler National Corporation BUKS 2/24/15 $0.18 $0.72 278.95% 84 Hudson Technologies HDSN 7/24/12 $3.50 $13.19 276.86% 85 FitLife Brands FTLF 12/30/13 $5.63 $21.06 274.07% 86 Leatt Corp LEAT 3/30/15 $2.30 $9.35 274.00% 87 Monarch Cement MCEM 11/23/16 $42.06 $153.00 263.77% 88 IEC Electronics IEC* 2/22/16 $4.27 $15.35 259.48% 89 Alter NRG Corp NRG.TO* 12/8/12 $1.40 $5.00 257.14% 90 Performant Financial PFMT 12/20/20 $0.76 $2.92 256.10% 91 Cogstate ASX:CGS 1/27/20 $0.42 $1.46 256.10% 92 Escalade ESCA 2/25/13 $5.83 $20.74 255.75% 93 PDC Energy NASDAQ:PDCE* 7/2/11 $20.25 $72.00 255.56% 94 ARI Network Services ARIS* 12/3/12 $0.39 $1.35 246.15% 95 SharpSpring SHSP* 4/21/15 $4.98 $17.10 243.37% 96 Quest Resources QRHC 12/13/17 $1.96 $6.96 241.18% 97 Innodata INOD 11/23/15 $2.53 $8.58 239.13% 98 Crawford United CRAWA 8/14/17 $9.40 $32.00 236.84% 99 Trupanion TRUP 3/28/16 $9.29 $30.98 233.48% 100 M-Tron MPTI 1/23/23 $10.10 $33.46 231.29% 101 Rosetta Stone RST* 9/12/14 $9.07 $30.00 230.76%

Not so sure about Illumina being a sure thing. Their technology is bettered by both Oxford Nanopore (have a look) and Pacbio and the industry seems to prefer the longer reads sequencing providers. I’ve been watching all three but particularly Oxford Nanopore, I think it’s the best technology which will only get better but they aren’t executing on revenue growth. I agree sequencing is going to be a bigger part of health care going forward but not sure that owning these companies is a slam dunk.

Agree with Healthcare and Biotech, but what to choose? Not sure there is a ETF that I like.

Merry Christmas. Thanks for the reminder to think of others less fortunate - I had totally forgotten this year.

IMO it’s just too hard to predict from here. I expect valuations to remained below long term averages - the sector is hated which sort of prevents it re-rating higher. It would take a big decline for me to buy back in.

So what do you own - Ex-US industrials? Any in particular worth a look?

If the best bull case for oil is hoping for a black swan in the Middle East then the market is in a bad way. These supply shocks are always on the cards but they are barely investable events. It wasn’t too long ago that Saudis production was attacked. The weekend spike in prices fizzled in a day or two.

Agree that some of them are too expensive but there are a great many stocks not expensive. It’s a market of haves and have nots. Some of the big companies like MSFT are truly global beasts that aren’t tethered to the US economy in the same way many other companies in the SP-500 are.

I once read the results of a product in clinical trials for heart diseases. I couldn’t see any evidence that it produced a desirable effect. Believe it was approve by the FDA anyway. I was surprised by that decision.

Cramer is generally optimistic on stocks - not always but mostly. Bet he has made more money that those nearly always pessimistic.

Biden still want a deal with Iran? Or is that finally dead?

Stopped reading at the first apostrophe.

I too have never heard of them. Looks interesting:

Pfizer at 10 year low.

I agree. I think nothing happens. If Venezuela does invade Guyana it will barely move the market, it produces what, 400 kbd of oil? Nothing in the grand scheme of things. Venezuela invading might actually be bearish for oil. It would give the USA an excuse to intervene, over throw the Maduro, lift sanctions causing oil production rocket. I see it weighted heavily towards bearish for oil.

Remember, Saudis and UAE are planning to both bring more oil to the market.

Does the US intervene in there is an invasion?