gfp

If you don't normalize interest rates when the economy is going gangbusters, you don't have any room to ease when the cycle turns. I won't get into the debate on whether we should even be trying to soften the extremes of the cycle - but the rate environment many people got used to was not 'normal.'

Not sure where to link this, but Warren did an event sponsored by newly acquired MLMIC, New York's largest medical malpractice insurer - where he had a public conversation with Dr. James Reed, CEO of St. Peter's Health Partners. (if you've reached your 'free limit' for reading the article, open the link in private or incognito mode to read) https://www.bizjournals.com/albany/news/2018/10/18/warren-buffett-health-care-st-peters-reed.html

I suppose you could try creating an ask of your own that would facilitate the bid you want to place. Otherwise, beyond using a different broker the solution is probably all too familiar when it comes to illiquid microcap accumulation: wait patiently.

https://in.reuters.com/article/stone-ipo-berkshire-hathaway/update-1-brazilian-card-processor-hopes-to-lure-buffett-with-11-bln-nasdaq-ipo-idINL2N1WW0YZ General news / Berkshire / 3G update - an article on the company from SA. Obviously more likely a Ted or Todd deal but who knows with the Brazilians involved: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212362-buffetts-stock-pick-stoneco-ipo-shows-74-percent-y-y-revenue-growth

Nope, watched it on a television set up outdoors with a group of friends. We have guests in town who were at the dome though. (I think we might be the only two people on this message board that care about this LOL) Back to value investments!

Thanks Mike, Congratulations Drew! It was like they weren't even trying to defend that pass to just get the record breaking ceremony over with. Drew can now hopefully add to that record for a few more years and it may stand for an awfully long time. Geaux Saints!

There are several factors in addition to repurchase activity that could be pushing BRK up relative to the market. One is the rise in interest rates and Berkshire’s unique positioning relative to interest rates (float based businesses become more valuable along with money, but most insurance companies hold large bond portfolios that get marked lower - Berkshire’s traditional long bond portfolio is comically small relative to total assets). Another is simple technical analysis reasons, which also relates to violated option strikes, where Brk held above its recent breakout. Might sound like Mumbo Jumbo, but covered calls are a factor at Brk, where everyone holds at a gain, most with large gains they are not eager to be called on and realize. But stock repurchases are undoubtably a factor as well

My understanding is that nothing has to be publicly disclosed in a filing when an issuer is using the plan for a repurchase. Other types of plans, for insider selling for instance, usually get mentioned in the form 4 - but the confidential details of the trading rules are usually not public. Sometimes you can divine them through other disclosures though - a cap price can sometimes be observed if trading prices are detailed in a form 4. So no, Berkshire doesn’t have to file anything but might mention it in a footnote later.

Correct. If they are doing it the way I am guessing they are doing it, there can be steady open market purchases throughout the usual blackout periods. You can get really specific with formulas and rules and changing price caps/floors - but I would bet they have a simple price cap, % of daily volume instruction. Just a guess of course.

My understanding is that they are limited by rule 10b-18 to buying no more than 25% of the daily volume. They are also not supposed to trade in the final 10 minutes before the close. I would be very surprised if Warren purchased anywhere close to 25% of the daily volume of the combined share classes. My impression is that he would feel that repurchase activity near the 25% level would influence the share price more than he desires. It is impossible to completely eliminate your influence on the share price (witness the generally rising stock, closure of A/B share premium/discount, etc). If I had to guess, I would guess that Berkshire established a 10b5-1 plan specifying a maximum price and a percentage of the trailing ADV to purchase. I would guess that they specified somewhere around 10-15% of the Average Daily Volume, not to exceed 25% on any given day unless a large transaction was privately negotiated outside the plan (which would not be considered to be protected by the safe harbor of the plan). They probably filed the 10b5-1 plan directly following their 10Q, allowing them to begin purchases under the plan immediately. Buffett would receive daily trade confirms but isn't supposed to have any other communication with the broker he chose to administer the plan. So he would know what was purchased each day and "we bought a little" is very difficult to quantify when you are talking about a half-trillion dollar market value enterprise... We'll find out soon enough with the next 10Q and we can try to reverse engineer the % of daily volume they specified...

Beat me to it man... Its so obvious Because Buffett and Soros have been bankrolling the Illuminati who are controlling the fed behind the scenes.

Hard to tell what specifically he means by reading the article alone. Is it "too much" exposure based on a firm's total assets, market cap, something else? I am guessing total assets but that is just a guess..

Berkshire finally closed this acquisition of a previously mutual medical malpractice liability insurer. https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/mlmic-insurance-company-new-yorks-top-medical-liability-insurer-joins-berkshire-hathaway-family-of-companies-2#.W7NwmxZOklQ

Ted filed on a small Roanoke VA based company, causing a bit of a spike. Wonder what the story is - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000091957418006295/d8073090_13g.htm

over 2 million was on the opening tick. Today was options expiration. (IB showing less than 5million but Bloomberg and NYSE showing over 13m)

It was legal in the 90's as part of a repurchase plan. I assume it is still legal. I doubt Berkshire is doing it, but Warren has used short puts to purchase shares several times in the past, including with Coca Cola and BNSF. '97 wsj article - https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB864243230195870000

Some of this move the last few days has got to be option expiration related. A lot of folks probably got caught out with covered calls against low basis stock they had no intention of selling. Look at the opening tick of over 2 million shares traded on the B shares this morning, which is a major option expiry day.

Yeah, that was surprising on the day he said that. It was basically Warren going on TV saying that the current price of Berkshire (at that time) was 'way below intrinsic value, conservatively determined by Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger.' And he also mentioned, if it's close enough they have to talk about it on the phone, they probably shouldn't be buying it... He was on 4 networks that day and the stock didn't budge

Thanks. A good article. Remember when even BRK fans were lamenting that he had lost it and vastly overpaid for BNSF at $34 Billion? He's taken enormous (tax free) cash dividends out of the company since then and Rolfe is saying it could be worth something comparable to UNP. I'll take 3 more fuck-ups like that one please

Not a bad quick and dirty back of the envelope. Seems a little aggressive to put a multiple of 14.5x some normalized float growth figure (you used $8B) and declare thats worth $116 Billion when we have already included the value of the stock portfolio, much of which is funded by float. I do understand that growth in Float is a component of cash flow available to owners though.

It seems safe to say in retrospect that June 26th at 186.44 closing price was an attractive buying opportunity for Berkshire. BRK up 18% since, SPX up 6.75% We buy when Berkshire gets cheap - because we know how to value it - regardless of the index performance or correlation.

Sound advice here! Ian I remember you from several years ago when you authored an article on Yongye International - I think you were pretty young at the time. I had investigated that company, including on the ground in China. It was shady. Went private at $7.10.

Yes - wow, at 235 a share on Tilray someone is getting killed here.

I agree Gates would be, and probably is, a great money manager. But Michael Larson manages Cascade and is a great manager in his own right. I have no idea what their arrangement is in terms of Larson getting full autonomy to make decisions but I have the impression Gates is primarily involved in the private stuff (VC investment, Four Seasons, etc) and Larson has full oversight of the public securities portfolio - in both the foundation and Cascade. edit: more on Larson, who has a dream job for sure: https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/03/15/256491/index.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Larson_(businessman)

Meph, I agree that Todd or Ted would probably be great choices, but I'll bet you $1.00 that Greg Abel is the next CEO of Berkshire Hathaway http://jarviscity.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/trading-places-bet-scene.jpg ("Both Jain and Abel are experts in their respective industries, so why pull them away to run the rest of Berkshire." - already happened with Abel)