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gfp

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Everything posted by gfp

  1. Good news for BRK - sounds like Chevron is bowing out and the OXY deal with BRK will go through https://www.wsj.com/articles/chevron-won-t-increase-offer-for-anadarko-11557405500?mod=hp_lead_pos4
  2. Yeah, I'm not too worried about limited due diligence on the OXY decision. Remember that Warren's public statements on this stuff are 100% an advertisement of how great it is to come to Berkshire with these proposals. He wants to use this as an ad to get people to call him. Same with the FT interview. He just wants the advertisement so a few more people call BRK with deals. He was extremely familiar with OXY, Anadarko, Oil price factors, and the Permian Basin in particular. He's read the annuals for years. He knows a lot more about how he can lose money on the deal than he lets on. It's a really good deal for Berkshire. The 10 year minimum duration is extremely important, and I think he realizes that 11 year warrants, even on a measly $5 Billion cost basis of stock, are extremely valuable. The dude has some experience with this stuff... The public characterizations are all advertisement. Look at how often he trumpeted the "No MAC clause." Why else would he highlight the permissive terms of his deal
  3. I noticed it as well. I don't know what condition causes it. Parkinson's may be the most widely known, but there are several conditions that could cause his hand to shake like that. I doubt it was anxiety from public speaking, but even that is a possibility. I do not think he suffers from the serious malady that his son has. Here'e hoping it is not anything too serious. Ajit has already made a big difference in Berkshire's insurance operations since taking over leadership of the entire thing. BHSI, General Re, Three, etc. It was nice to see him so Buffett-like with numbers off the top of his head for Progressive, GEICO, etc. I hope we have him for at least another decade. I definitely see Greg Abel as the primary CEO after Warren though. And he also seemed very well suited. We are lucky to have both
  4. gfp

    Q1 Results

    Fascinating that Warren basically said the repurchases are so low because the stock is not that undervalued. It's undervalued, but not back up the truck undervalued. Charlie: "I predict we will get more liberal with share repurchases over time"
  5. gfp

    Q1 Results

    I see B shares actually a bit higher at 4/25 and A shares reduced by 641 shares (some of which may have been A -> B conversions). Could be 100-200 million dollars worth of repurchases, but its hard to know for sure. There are still some share issuances out there from things like the BNSF merger. Actually I see my error - it is a net reduction of 157 A share equivalents
  6. gfp

    Q1 Results

    So basically, he started repurchasing shares the Tuesday after the Annual Report was released and repurchased through he end of the quarter. I'll do some figuring to see what the repurchase activity was between quarter end and 4/25. Also appears he did not continue adding to JPM in the quarter (at least not more than a few hundred million dollars worth - if anything)
  7. gfp

    Q1 Results

    Poor Berky WEB site.. Care to attach the Q as a file attachment here? (never mind - it finally loaded for me) 1stqtr19.pdf
  8. Yes, several brokers allow this in an IRA, but the puts are required to be “cash covered” or whatever you call it - so not really “naked” like a naked call sale would be. In reality it is basically identical to a limit buy order on the underlying- not too exotic for a retirement account
  9. Both. They are both a lender and shareholder (controlling shareholder actually, 59.6% currently plus warrants that would bring it to 80%)
  10. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4258511-berkshire-violated-board-independence-rules The writer claims Berkshire has violated board independence rules due to related party transactions between Walter Scott and subsidiary Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Walter Scott's governance committee was taken off the task of reviewing related party transactions. The Audit Committee now handles this job. Writer does not appear to understand the math involved in repurchases and equates them to Berkshire Hathaway buying Scott's BHE shares directly as opposed to BHE repurchasing the shares, increasing all remaining shares' pro rata stake. Board member Greg Abel is also a significant BHE shareholder, with his shares able to be converted into over $400 million worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock. I believe the formulas for BHE valuation under these transfers is long set in writing. Personally, I don't care about Walter Scott selling shares back to BHE while serving as a BRK.A board member. I doubt the NYSE cares either
  11. "The preferred stock to be issued to Berkshire Hathaway will be redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) at the option of Occidental commencing on the tenth anniversary of issuance at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus accumulated and unpaid dividends, if any. The preferred stock will also be mandatorily redeemable for cash (in whole or in part) upon certain specified capital return events. Dividends will be paid in cash or, at Occidental’s option, in shares of Occidental common stock. The warrant to be issued with the preferred stock may be exercised in whole or in part and from time to time, until one year after the redemption of the preferred stock. " - obviously this is all moot if Oxy can't close the deal for Anadarko, so Berkshire may still be disappointed. But this is a very good deal. The accounting for this type of thing usually has to value the 11 year (minimum) duration warrants for $5 billion worth of OXY stock at 62.50 according to Black Scholes, and then assign the balance of the $10 Billion commitment to the preferred shares. The warrant is extremely valuable, so the income security is very attractive. Standard Buffett deal - our customer gets to count the financing as "equity" and we get the income hurdle Warren requires to step off the sidelines. Sure, OXY can skip dividends (which accrue at 9% then) or pay in OXY stock - but this is a very attractive deal. Here's hoping it actually closes
  12. Funny that this deal was telegraphed in advance by one of those research services tracking the Occidental corporate jet tail number. News yesterday was that the jet was in Omaha... https://seekingalpha.com/news/3455802-occidental-petro-jet-reported-omaha-last-weekend Not redeemable for 10 years, and then it costs 105% to redeem... plus the warrants on 80 ml shares
  13. Cigarbutt, I saw this blurb from Insurance Insider and thought I would share with you. Who knows if its worth anything -
  14. They have a voting agreement with DVA as well. It's common enough. I think the Fed's demands for a restriction in commercial relationships with WFC was one of the bargaining points that wasn't agreeable to Buffett when he last gave up on seeking permission to allow WFC to push his position above 10%. FT has an article with Warren this morning - https://www.ft.com/content/40b9b356-661e-11e9-a79d-04f350474d62 If you can't read it, try using incognito mode, going through google news and searching google news for "FT Buffett" - it should work
  15. Yahoo finance has been releasing dribs and drabs of an interview that Andy Serwer did recently with Warren in anticipation of the annual meeting. The first one was him commenting on negative interest rates and the lack of historical precedent for current conditions. The most recent release (so far) has his comments on Elon Musk's conduct. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-on-negative-interest-rates-and-low-inflation-144529579.html https://finance.yahoo.com/video/warren-buffett-says-elon-musks-110000649.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-23/warren-buffett-sees-most-newspapers-as-toast-after-ad-decline?srnd=premium
  16. Your link shows them managing $ 1,256,354,000 They own 3% of 257.57 million AVM Ranger USNT BVI ($7.7 million) They own 20% of 159.667 million AVM Ranger ($31.9 million) They own 2% of 352.735 million AVM Ranger Qualified ($7 million) They own 1% of 203 million AVC BJMP ($2 million) all approximate. that's just a few of their vehicles. Its all in your linked filing
  17. Small bolt-on at Marmon: https://easttexasreview.com/joyce-crane-acquired-in-expansion/
  18. You would think your subscription would be tax deductible
  19. Basically no, the business is finished. But there are various excerpts available online if you search around. Old stuff. https://www.scribd.com/document/136379211/Seth-Klarman-Oid-Interview-March-2009 http://basehitinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Bruce-Berkowitz-WFC-1992-OID-Interview.pdf Probably more stuff on Scribd, or filetype:pdf searches through google
  20. I believe it is BYD Lots of interesting information in there, thanks. Anyone know which brand of batteries Invenergy uses in their storage systems for Midamerican ?
  21. This is the most recent (late March) presentation from Berkshire Hathaway Energy - might be interesting to some: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71180/000108131619000007/ic2019.htm (from a fixed income conference)
  22. Yeah, John answered you but I would add that it is not reportable unless the selling shareholder is a reporting insider. So if First Manhattan sells a block of stock back to Berkshire, they would have to file a Form 4 within 3 business days because Sandy Gottesman is on the board of directors. If Charlie personally sold a block back to BRK, same deal. If Charlie's kids sell a block back to BRK, no filing. We find out the total repurchase in the 10Q. Any more detail is at the discretion of management (correction - Sandy is no longer required to report sales from First Manhattan, only his personal shares which are far fewer as seen in his recent Form 4 gifts of A shares)
  23. Hey John- The Gates foundation only files periodically, when they rise above or below the 5% threshold. The most recent filing was when they fell back below the 5% threshold and the link you referenced was an exhibit to that filing - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/902012/000110465918059501/a18-36147_1sc13da.htm Basically, they are required to sell shares to "facilitate compliance with federal excise tax rules limiting excess business holdings by private foundations" - and when Warren gives them a big block of stock they cross above the 5% level, then as they sell they have been falling back below. ---------- A little bit of detail on why the Gates Foundation is required to sell BRK.B shares: A private foundation is not permitted to control a business. It is also not permitted to own over 20% of a business (in most cases, including this one). Seems like no problem, but you are required to add to the Foundation's stake the stakes of any "disqualified persons," which includes both Warren and Bill Gates. And Warren currently controls 31.4% of the vote and 16.5% of the economic interest of Berkshire. And Bill owns some personally through Cascade as well. So they are required to sell to "facilitate compliance" and they are allowed to violate the rules as long as they are selling to work towards compliance. ------------- One last thing John - that filing you referenced was the most recent filing (when they passed below 5% of the class of B shares, not the company as a whole). But the proxy statement has an update. On September 28, 2018, the date of the linked filing, the foundation held 62 million shares of BRK.B. On 3/6/2019, the foundation held 55,277,174 shares of BRK.B. I have tried to reverse engineer the URL to find those filings for later periods, unfortunately so far to no avail for me. So, how do I look them up at the SEC website? - Thank you in advance.
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