gfp

It's OK mike - I'm a big boy and I've already realized over 5% gains on those government bonds in a few days with another unrealized 500 shares of ZROZ at a $64.046 cost basis for another $1,242 gain at the moment. Is 5% in a week good for government paper? Let Blake have his philosophical victory and I'll keep my $11,729.91 that I didn't have a week ago. I'm up 12% year to date in a choppy market. I'm in a good mood. Look out below... Onwards and upwards gents. These markets are much more exciting than some low volatility sideways at all time highs BS

How can they hit the market at a discount if they are "all the ships." I'm sure everyone will take the cheaper route: pay the fees and pay the lobbyists!

Wouldn't this be right up there as a grade A chart crime? I started my professional investing career in 2000-2001 and as we all know it was a huge blow-off top in equities and a major low before the beginning of a huge bull market in gold. By selecting the year 2000 as a starting point, they are selecting opposite extremes for both assets. People who try to convince or win arguments with stuff like this are being intellectually dishonest at best

What if the US dollar declines gently? Will everything be OK then? I'm back from a trip and I see we are still freaking out here on the corner! As a general tip, the future usually looks surprisingly like the recent past.

Fairfax is not for selling. Surely you have something crappier to sell if you need cash luka

QP is minimum $5m investments not including residence for an individual

What price did you re-purchase them for?

You bought Berkshire traders back at 530 per share?

And yet they only intervene when the free market takes the CNY to the Weak-CNY-strong-USD edge of the trading band around central parity. And then the next day they move the central parity target and the market pulls the peg further in the weak CNY direction - not the other way around. I can't remember the last time I have seen the reserve bank of china intervene in USD-CNY on the CNY-is-too-strong side. So there are controls for moving money out and there are regular interventions to stop the fall off their currency from market forces. And every time they have to intervene to provide USDollars for their banks to circulate in China, the reserve bank of China sells some US treasury debt to get the dollars. And the US press and most of this message board claim China is sending us a message or engaged in some geopolitical muscle flex, "oh my god, what if they go on strike and refuse to buy our debt and fund our lavish lifestyle!"

Why do you believe that the CCP is manipulating the Yuan lower? They are actually doing the opposite. Fairly regularly.

Ah, I see - by your definition of "plateau" every asset has plateaued.

To be fair, the inflation was transitory last time and went right back to 2% after the COVID disruption. wabuffo does a great CPI chart that substitutes zillow's real time index for the extremely lagged and flawed "owners equivalent rent" and it captures the inflation journey to a T -

Berkshire's management spends more time and energy thinking about big risks to Berkshire than management of most companies do. In general, any big risk to American business poses less of a risk to Berkshire because of how rational and financially strong they are. When you worry about risk, Berkshire should be low on your list of worries.

Blake, what is the current positioning of your portfolio - I know you have a lot of cash and oil, but what percentage cash, which other investments? Oil producers equity, an ETF? Oil futures? Are you bullish on the Euro currency? Are bearish on the DXY dollar index (primarily EUR/JPY) ? If you own a lot of US dollar cash - same as Warren from the quote above - how does his quote make you feel about your cash? Do you own any non-oil equities that you intend to hold for a long period? Do you own Berkshire Hathaway or Fairfax Financial stock? Has your investment track record since you started doing this been good? Do you keep track of your returns to know if your confidence is working in the real world?

At least is has been so far. I wouldn't assume "this time" is a past tense thing just yet. Big ole downtrend might be broken on the 'close' today, whenever that is. Gotta start somewhere if you wanna stop going down

If you are nervous about giving back the gains on your equity portfolio, it's usually better to shrink your equity portfolio than it is to get fancy. Maybe there was a tax deferral angle there, but as I've grown older cash makes me a better investor than if I have short index hedges on. And I don't care about every little movement in the "stock market" nearly as much.

good news for Apple -> https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

How much of the recent rise in M2 is simply a reflection of the US Treasury spending down their TGA general account into the private economy? Seems like that would reverse as soon as a budget / debt ceiling bill is passed and the TGA starts to be replenished.

Yeah I agree on this. Plus Fairfax has just graduated quickly to a much higher level of net worth and did not want to give it back. A big part of the global financial system basically broke in 2008-2009 and by some accounts has still not recovered. They were correct that a global step-change had occurred and we all got lucky that everything was basically fine - if below prior potential - in the next period. Who wants to do it again?! Maybe we can break this thing further

I agree with all of that, but if the government runs a big deficit like you predict, we may not have the recession.

That is written by someone who is "not an expert on these matters." Fairfax's average duration is 3.5 years and they report in US Dollars. They have liability discounting effects that offset quarter to quarter changes in market interest rates. Fairfax isn't particularly exposed to losses on their bond portfolio unless they change how they are positioned (drastically extend maturities) or we have a huge default wave on their construction loans (which KW would then take over and manage to completion, mitigating that particular risk). Fairfax will be OK. Berkshire is even safer, obviously, with an average duration of less than 6 months last we heard.

This was from this week's offering of Yen bonds Pretty small offering, rates are going higher on Berkshire's Japan corporate paper - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312525078866/d850696dfwp.htm still positive carry and that tiny amount at 3.11% is 30 years

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-looks-disappear-bill-ackmans-123000264.html Converting Nike shares to call options In its investor update, Pershing disclosed that in early 2025 the fund converted its Nike equity position, valued at over $1.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, to deep in-the-money call options.

Not to mention, he has since sold out of that Nike to replace the position with call options