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@ValueArb - What is that number? Is there a fund does net-nets anymore? Even microcaps?

Man -- those that graduated last year.. is kicking themselves... Free tuition going forward... I need to try to get my kids admitted there now! LOL

I think the disrupting the compounding is a huge dagger. I do not know of many people who have kept 1-2 holdings static for 10+ years and allow Amazon, Google, BRK to compound for years on years. I have 1 share of BRK.B to get his annual letters sent to me. But, I remember back when BRK.B were introduced he specifically said he didn't believe they were a good value. Warren talked it down. Also, through the years, he talked about how his universe has shrunk and he would marginally outperform the S&P, if he was lucky. He's results have been good, but not great. I would love to have the early Buffett partnership returns.. but, the last 10-20 years have been good, but not great.. but, again, if you invested him in the 70s or 80s... it's been 30-40 years of compounding by him.. that's not something most people do nowadays. I would love to see a poll of everyone's longest held position... But, the average is probably 1-2 years, if I tender a guess.

He says BNSF will be around forever... So, we're in a down cycle. It'll be okay. He didn't talk about his World Book investments or Dexter or newspaper investments.... Some industries will run it courses. I guess he's just sad that BSNF, BHE, and GEICO has needed re-investments lately. All have needed some TLC lately. Industry wise, technology wise, and personnel wise. He doesn't have shiny Iscar or Precision CastPart or Lukizol to rave about.

@LearningMachine - Everyone of his businesses have risk. That's the whole point of margin of safety. That's part of your calculation. Whether you own 30% or 100% -- the risk is there...

@sleepydragon - I'm going to do the reverse Leonard DiCarpo and date 50-60 year olds that have bad hearts, but a lot of money...

@Spekulatius @Xerxes - If he is wiling to invest 20%+ percent, why wouldn't he buy the whole thing? He did that for BNSF, See's, etc. I mean.... if he is buying on the open market, why not open up the possibility of buying it? I know he didn't want to buy all of Washington Post and be seen as aggressive to Katherine Graham... But, other than SEC reporting requirements... if OXY being the same company it is today, but trades at a P/E of 1-2.... and he can take it private at that price... he should do it.... I don't know why he has to be so vocal about it....

@Gamecock-YT - Fascinating, thanks. I've been lead to European bank stocks, but I might be a lone wolf there.

@Gamecock-YT I like your answers. M&A activity can be gotten from Dealogic. Where you do get a screen for dividend cuts and bankruptcies? There's a lot of oil mergers lately (OXY being widely discussed). Dividends and bankruptcies don't appear to be an issue. Are there certain industries you are looking into now?

@Gamecock-YT - Have their concepts impacted your investing style? I know Howard Marks talks about super cycle too. So, I do like their writing on cycles, but don't trade in and out of cycles. (sector rotation). I generally use it to analyze an industry in down cycles that should revive -- like European banking.... or banking in America circa 2010. I know shipping and oil are super cyclical, but they are commodities.

I listened to this podcast. It's weird how through some crazy association with Patrick O'Shaughnessy -> Colossus -> that has exposure to Founder's Podcast and others, they have a meeting with Charlie Munger. Somehow, they got to have a dinner with Charlie with their larger crew. Would Charlie associate with anyone that disreputable? Or waste his time? So, I looked at Tiny and don't get how he can be a billionaire if Tiny only has a 322M market cap. In Annie Duke's Quit book, Andrew has a reference where he had a Asana competitor product, but Asana out-marketed, out-developed, out-spent him... and he lost 11M in cash.... So, I don't know where he gets his alpha?

He is a good communicator.... but I would not put him in the same vain as Ray Dalio or Jim Cramer. I like Howard Marks. But, he's a bond investor, so his equity analysis is not his wheelhouse.... or what made him famous.

I read this and also, saw it in stores. Just don't know how to "play" this in financial instruments.

@Spekulatius - Understood. So, when you hear the estimates and comments from Citigroup and PBR-A --- do you put any weight to them? One is in financial and one is in oil.... You have something, and you pray they are right.. but, how accurate can Jane Frazier be -- considering there are capital market events that she cannot control in 2024 and 2025 that can help or hurt her earnings. Can she accurately forecast what the Fed will allow her in buybacks and dividends without a bureaucrat being pissed that they told them what they should do.. versus the Fed telling what they can do. I know roughly what I am going to make this year, but I actually don't know how good my stock portfolio will generate.... But, then again, I don't have shareholders or wall street analyst to predict...

@Spekulatius - I would say the zombie-ish companies are the banks in Germany. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have fixed themselves up. But, there should be more consolidation in Germany for one. It is overbanked. The locally-government controlled savings bank - Spareassen-Finanzgruppe. Pricing is being held down by the weakness offerers like oil producers. It's just not rational. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Cooperative_Financial_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_Germany Many don't have scale and without government support, would be dissolvent. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2017/html/ssm.sp170927.en.html In Italy, I would say Monte die Paschi -- which they want Unicredit to take over.. but, they passed. Let it die.

@Gamecock-YT Is it only in your industry (finance)? Or can your forecasting work with oil companies, which can be at the whelm of spot prices? Or one just has to look at hedges in the disclosure to see how risky a company is trying to be.

Is this the "Big Short 2.0"? China edition? Goldman Sachs will somehow make money on this... LOL.

I bought it when the thread got posted... I believe it was $50 dollars then... so, it has been a good investment both mentally and monetarily. I would put it up there with Margin of Safety by Klarman.... I have to admit this forum has highlighted some books that were amazing and now out of print like Investor AB. You can still find Capital Returns on Amazon..I would recommend that read.

If you can find a copy of the "Capital Account" book. It's great. I have one. Also, the Capital Returns book is thought-provoking as as sequel. Nick Sleep (of Nomad Capital fame) was at Marathon when they wrote those letters and he said he might have wrote some with Zak. You can see tenets of 'scaled economies shared' in there.

@DooDiligence - I am with you. I just don't how banks can predict how the economy is going to do and how their IB arm will do.... which results in their ROIC numbers... like how does Jaime Dimon know even if JPM will be close 2 quarters from now... there's so many factors. Conversely, how can Jane Frazier know they will hit their targets in 2025? I know you can deliver the cost cutting side -- but, who knows if there is another GFC or Silicon Valley Bank situation 3 quarters from now...... why even give that guidance as you say.... I like have Ubiquiti doesn't have a conference call or press release... same with BRK... you get what you get... But, most are in the other camp.... I felt it's a bit of tea leaves.. I just wanted to know if there is a secret sauce.

@linus_md - Yes, I don't understand how Jaime Dimon and other banks can predict they will hit their ROTCE estimates so easily.

I concur -- those zombie companies are on life support.... Survival of the Fittest and Creative Destruction is held at bay for a while... You can put parallels to Japan back in the day.... Europe is correcting and hopefully normalizes..but, their socialistic bend keep it from going quicker than the US. There is some bad things happening in China... with real estate companies.

@paperweight I will throw another name out - Universal Security Instruments, Inc. ($UUU). They're just publicly traded to get any multiple P/E of 5... So, if they were privately owned, they would just get 1x... but, at 5x... they are suckering/stealing from the shareholder base.... The company is only 11 people, but the CEO is just paying himself and over the long run, you can see it popped a bit, but comes straight back down. All the profits are funneled to the CEO not shareholders and nothing one can do about it. No catalysts in sight... One of their largest investors don't care... I called them eons ago.. and the major holder just passed it to his investor base and acted stupid. Sadly, not criminal, but no integrity. So, again, I've never seen it turn well unless you can change the board.

Most likely... I wanted to know how accurate companies can be about earning..... Like Elon Musk with Tesla -- can they really gauge short term demand and their CFOs can get close enough. I heard a lot from Jane Frazier at Citigroup that they can their ROIC numbers above 10% by 3 quarters from now. I know you can control your costs...but, how easy it is to match the revenue side.. .Or at the corporate level, they can do some accounting deferrals to "hit the numbers". I know there are surprises, but do CFOs really have strong models to factor in growth and expenditures.

I would love the counterargument or an example of a good regional to invest in that is undervalued like Citigroup or even an international global bank like Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Unicredit, BNParabis, Commerzbank, ABN Amro. (I just listed 6 banks that priced below book and with stronger CET1 ratios) Just feel the dynamics the large money center bank is easier... There is definitely finish in the smaller pond of regional banks.... but, I think it's easier now for the larger banks.