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schin

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Everything posted by schin

  1. @Hektor - I am based out of Maryland and I know the GEICO HQ and have people who have worked there. There's a lot of technical debt and antiquated systems in there. It's almost like the regulatory and compliance updates that are happening at big banks (Citibank, WFC, Chase, EU banks (like DB)). Know-Your-Customer and Anti-Money-Laundering directives are not baked into banking systems, so there's a lot retrofitting that needs to happen into legacy systems. It's not the funniest investment management likes to make, but essential to the sustain of the business model. So for relative to GEICO, there's a lot of telematic and analytics systems that are relevant that has not be weaved into their fabric. It's tech, so it is scary to them... and a lot of these systems are mainframe that are not well documented. I feel there are a lot of "old style" businesses under the BRK umbrella that has not modernized as well under BRK, that would be better suited in the market.. because the spotlight of analysts would be on them. Sun as a disinfectant. Great business still need great management... and I do not think succession in these subs have worked out well. It's showing at BSNF and also, GEICO. If Meta can create Threads to be a X/Twitter alternative... why can't GEICO create their own telematic systems? Precision scheduling is not new to railroading and one cannot say UNP, NSC, CNI is better financially than BSNF.... the only other alternative is they have better management and strategy... and that's crazy to say BRK/BSNF cannot outbuy that great management talent or strategy. So, I do believe things have been lax for too long. When you look at the portfolio of companies.... I have not seen any world class businesses like Hermes, LVMH, Google, Amazon, Toyota in the portfolio like I've seen with Softbanks.. where they spawned Alibaba, Coupang, ARM Holding... Again, they are playing early start-up... but, again, the manta with Softbank and BRK should be to dominant the industry and nurture the best talent with the best infrastructure and everything takes care of itself. BRK all started as great businesses but have drifted to good businesses. I see more things die naturally under BRK like Scott Feltzer/WorldBooks, Blue Chips, Dexter Shoe, Buffalo News, Washington Post...that have drifted and the landscape changed on them..but, I see WSJ and NY Times figuring it out. I see Christian Louboutian, OnCloud, Brooks making their products viable, but not Dexter Shoes.... because they left Dexter as a commodity product instead of a differentiated offering. I see more long-in-the-tooth businesses... that have been underinvested and undermanaged.
  2. @longterminvestor - One of the major advantages of being purchased by BRK is its low cost of capital. It's so abundant that you should have an advantage from your competitors. Deep pockets and the 1-2% cost advantage should extend your lead. It's like Masa/Softbank in providing financing so you can dominate. The AAA credit rating at the BRK/parent level should provide some value. When BRK looked into BNSF relative to UNP/NSC/CNI/CSX, I thought Warren would focus on the best management team and give them the advantage of low cost capital/float. Not free, but lower than if they went to Citibank, Chase, WFC, etc. The removal of an extra layer of fees from IBs alone should give the company an unfair, yet legal advantage. If Warren was looking at an average cost operator with great management, you remove the quarterly SEC filing/compliance department overhead and reducing their cost of capital, you should get the lowest cost provider. He could have purchased UNP, NSC, CNI, respectively and made them a king maker. I sold out of my UNP and NSC accordingly -- because of this. I tendered my shares in BNSF too. UNP has kept up with BNSF and might be better... even with the drag of reporting and higher cost of capital.. Progressive has too.... what makes Progressive so special that GEICO cannot replicate or how they insure better? Progressive should not have as much human and financial capital as any BRK sub. Who would have thought GEICO couldn't outspend them or introduced their own version of engine data analysis chip shortly afterwards? In what world, would one supposedly have the best management team with deep financial pockets and still not dominate or be number one? As for Greg, Ajit, and Todd airlifting themselves into BNSF and GEICO. The whole point of BRK is the corporate shouldn't off have the capabilities to manage the sub's business. BRK doesn't consolidate purchasing at the parent level.... essentially, they are offering capital allocation at that level only.. and the subs are left alone to manage accordingly. The fact that Greg, Ajit, and Todd are providing that expertise is not the original playbook. That's not the strategy. Great management plus cheap, ample capital should equal long term dominance and competitive advantage.... that's not what I see in BNSF and GEICO. There's management drift or some mis-management there. I do not see Greg actively managing See's Candy... nor should he. He cannot scale like that.. It's like having a team of Peyton Mannings, Tom Bradys, LeBron James... do they need coaches to tell them how to play? BNSF and GEICO is like Ben Simmons of the Nets or Jordan Poole of the Wizards, if anyone follows the NBA.
  3. @longterminvestor - "If GEICO needed capital, it is a click away and capital would fall from the sky from headquarters. " That is what he has said, but I don't know if that's what has happened in reality. I would not call GEICO and BNSF as "decent" businesses. Considering how he has touted their prior management and how they were investing in marketing and all these things that has not panned out. Anyone with BRK as a parent should be able to "outspend" any competitor and make strategic investments... yet, I do not know how UNP and Progressive has higher cost of capital yet been able to take 1st place over BNSF and GEICO, respectively.... the only variable is management... and being outplayed on the court.
  4. This makes me think... if Warren underinvests in all his businesses... I know he loves low-cap businesses (See's) and touts his heavy investments in NetJets and MidAmerica -- but, there seems to be more under-invested businesses like GEICO, BNSF that are not keeping up with CapEx. He's talked about making long term CapEx investments and exec having access to cheap capital, but do they? I see more business slowly dying under BRK... and the frugal culture leads to creative destruction in their markets.
  5. Here is his original thoughts on 3G in 2013, which is positive of 3G: In 2017, they started to recognize the strategy is all focused on extreme cost cutting.... Charlie is more skeptical.
  6. I know he touted Jack Welch at GE and also, 3G... and back in the day, there was Al Dunlop with Sunbeam. It works until it doesn't work.
  7. I felt it was weird that certain important investment like Buffett's 3G, Lubrizol, Precision Castparts, and Iscar don't get talked about much... but had a lot of fanfare for a period of time. I am not saying all went bad... just dunno... the stories never get revisited.
  8. @dealraker @UK I thought Hunter Harrison and his concepts on precision railroading have been used by all in the industry. It should have been table stakes now. It amazes me that BNSF can be so mismanaged now. The point of the BNSF acquisition was they would have cheap, ample capital from BRK.A -- so, they can keep up and possibly, over invest to dominate. Was Matthew Rose then, CEO ... so, good...that it blew up after his retirement? I don't understand how BNSF, GEICO can be so dry-rotted in their current state.
  9. @Jaygo @Parsad - I finished reading the CF Quadrant book. As you both mentioned, there's some wordiness and it could have been summarized/consolidated a bit more... but, the concepts are definitely relevant and a novel framework that is thought-provoking. Definitely worth the read.
  10. "would arrive at the Castle eager to describe...." What a cliff hanger? Can you give us 500 more pages of it, so I find out how it ends? LOL. Definitely will look into the book! Great recommendation!
  11. I think it's worthwhile to see how the Unicredit overtures to Commerzbank plays out. If the ECB/German Bundesbank allows a cross border merger, it shows some willingness for creative destruction and efficiencies/layoffs versus socialism/employee first culture. It'll signify a tide not completely turning, but an example of change. EU banks cannot be competitive in the global scale (US/China) in their current stance. US is close to top.. but, Europe is a distant second.... But, China, India, Russia, Africa, etc.... all have huge issues. China has some unicorns, but they can also take them to the shed and shot them too. There's just a lot more rule of law here in the US. But, occasionally, you get seizures like Fannie/Freddie.
  12. @Inofeisone Is this something you are doing with OXY?
  13. @bt1 @jouni1 - Pretty cool resource. I love it. I was looking for Li Lu's Moving the Mountain book -- but, got a lot of false positives. Also, tried to find "The Memoirs of Walter J. Schloss"... those are two rare books I've been wanting to read. But, I can see other interesting stuff. Thanks!
  14. @Jaygo @Parsad I bite the bullet and got Cash Flow Quadrant. I hope it changes my life!
  15. @bt1 - Are there investing books that are out of copyright that are worth a gander?
  16. @Irv72 - Great list of books. I have not read Fabric of Success, but is it similar to Outliers by William Thorndike or Jim Collins' books - Good to Great? Are there certain value investor letters outside of Buffett and Nick Sleep that you recommend?
  17. @winjitsu - I've seen copies on eBay for Capital Account.
  18. I really enjoy William Green's episodes on "We Study Billionaires" podcast.
  19. @HubbadaPow - Capital Returns/MRO letters was really good. I didn't know about Nick Sleep's connection with MRO. I have not read Anthony Bolton, but definitely will look into it. Seems like I'm overlooking great UK investors like Terry Smith, Anthony Bolton, Nick Sleep, etc. I know about Nick Sleep and has casually tracked Terry Smith... I might need to focus more great UK/EU investors.
  20. @Spekulatius - I like Greenblatt's book too. Do you have feel the Magic Formula has influenced your investing style? Or your closer to the Graham?
  21. @Spooky - It doesn't delve into probabilities, but Howard Marks and second-level thinking and the Capital Account/Capital Returns has that Annie Duke vibe for me.
  22. Has anyone really made good money on activist funds lately? Elliott? I know I made some dollars from Sardar back in the day.. But, are there any great activist funds that you can track? Elliot is big, but he shakes the tree here and there... but, sometimes, he whimpers away.
  23. @james22 - Is it cheating if I watch the movies? I saw "A Man in Full" movie and it was okay. It had some interesting plot twists, but as always the book is better. But, speaking of books that got translated to movies, I'm surprised no Michael Lewis fans - Liar's Poker, Big Short, Blind Side, etc.
  24. @pratik.thakkar - The link is 4 years ago.... is he doing it again? I split the cost... but, my ceiling is $50 bucks.
  25. Very data driven. Thank you. We should have a graphic of super small cap investors and when they trade out of their stocks.
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