schin

I wanted to know how companies can feel confident about their revenue and profit guidance into 2025? Or future quarters in general? I know everyone has models, but: on one hand, people say it's so hard to forecast because we don't know a lot of variables like interest rates, events like Ukraine, 2nd and 3rd order effects of ChatGPT/AI/ML advancements... so, it's hard to foretell stock movement. but, on the other hand, how can companies feel so confident they know their numbers for the next 4 quarters? For example, are the revenue/FP&A models so good for banks like JPM, BAC, Deutsche Bank -- that they know how their trading, M&A pipeline will be in 6 months? Is anyone in the corporate industry that can chime in?

Are mid-size/regional banks even worth investing in? I mean.... Size matters in the US with regulations. See how the large banks powered through the pandemic, Ukraine/Russia fiascos, etc.... Just the cost of AML/KYC and IT investments -- and oversight.... regional banks don't have the scale... They do serve a local customer.. but, you don't get better P/BV in regional. Higher growth... They're just weener.. just stuck in the middle. With a middle of the road strategy. You can buy Citi/BAC/WFC at better PBV multiples, better dividend payout, and growth than regionals. Plus Citi/BAC/WFC are too big to fail.. so, they get more scrutiny in their business model.

@ValueArb - I feel you. I just found plenty of bargains in the small and mid-cap space where market caps are in the 5-50B... plenty of liquidity... and I still get the doubles/triples I am looking for. Nano/Microcaps like SODI can get me those types of returns, but it can either go well or badly.. and you must trust the management a lot because it's like marrying the mob.. you can't get out easily other than the witness protection program.

@blakehampton - Gotcha. If they delisted and they have a heavy discount, I would reach out to management and see what they expect to realize value for smaller shareholders like yourself. You're a minority shareholder and they can just jerk you around. They probably don't institutional investors, so I don't know who is holding the other side of your buys... People that are feed up? Again, prior to them delisting.... because they were at a discount... did they do any shareholder friendly acts, such as share buybacks? How are they doing to close the gap? Again, they shouldn't be that big to ignore you. Give them a call and see if they are responsive. If not, you're a nat... that's not a shareholder community I want to be with.... They might use it as their piggybank...

I find stocks like ARM, NuBank, Coupany, UiPath all IPO as mid to large cap stocks. It's really hard find a small stock that has growth... maybe, they IPO and then drop into a low cap valuation.... but, what's the best small cap anyone has seen lately? I would say... maybe, maybe, Brunello Cucinelli at 5B.

I'm on Interactive Brokers myself and the commission is reasonable... but, then, you have contend with spread. If you're patient, you can build a position. But, let's say it takes you 3 months to get into a position.... how long will it take you to get out of that same position without crushing the Buy/Sell balance. 3 months? For those 3 months, you were probably the market and picking off small buyers... Getting out as a non-controlling shareholder is hard.... What is the margin of safety you're looking for? I mean how much of a net-net does it have to be for you to be that patient. Even Warren Buffett in the early days tried to get on the board to generate the catalyst. It's a perfect stock with great management trading at 50% book... but, it's closely held. Again, at a low market cap, why don't they just take it private and not deal with the disclosures and reporting? Again, I find most people that want to start microcap/nanocap funds...are just stock manipulators... they know they can uptick at the final bell of the month/quarter to make their performance look amazing.. They're a big fish in a little pond... but, their funds cannot scale and ultimately, they outgrow the market.

Look at the 2008 Housing Crisis for reference.

I use Quartr or the company's website (call IR -- which suppose to help)

The spreads are terrible when I worked with microcap stocks. It takes forever to get into positions.. and when you want to get out... you will depress the market on that day/week by 10-15%... If you are a large shareholder, getting out requires a lot of people to take your shares..... and then, they wonder if there is something wrong with it... so, it gets depressed more. At 7 shares, it better be trading at 3k-30k per share.. because if it's penny... with commissions, illiquid/bad spreads... to get 1% of your portfolio.... it's a lot of work for that juice... I would recommend marrying into the family for the position. The academic literature says there is alpha there.. but, I call bullshit on most microcaps... the spreads are bad.. the market makers are crooks... and any sell takes days to find the buyer.. and if you need to get out during COVID, GFC, any bearish market, you're cooked.... minus well scream fire in a crowd theatre. You're the last person the market maker wants to deal with.

They're great security guards, but do you want them running the whole museum? It's a broader skillset.

I am not sure. But, is Abel being used like Sokol as a fixer? Warren has invested in some companies that need a person to run to closer -- like his Blue Chips Stamps, BRK investments..so, if Abel is the fixer so be it.. but, the CEO position is broader than chasing down the rogue company. I do prefer someone who is down to earth and just get some things done... rather than a self-promoter/marketing/sales guy in the CEO position. It's just going to boring at the AGM... I found Abel's responses to have a lot of corporate speak.... "We're working with various parties and we're going to be to do the right thing for the community... for the government.. and ultimately for the our shareholders over the long run..." There's only so many times we can hear that. I know it's not his swim lane, but love to hear what he thinks about banks, airlines, broader issues.. instead of his narrow operational and political/regulatory challenges.

Abel is running operations at MidAmerican Energy..... But, the other companies are on autopilot... His job is almost like coaching LeBron James and Tom Brady... I mean... Warren bought companies that were run by strong management. He never did fixer uppers. You have to have your management in place. BNSF, GEICO, and See's candies. They're decentralized to the max. It's pretty much accounting at the parent holding level and just praising them publicly.

Microsoft under Ballmer was terrible. Nadella is the real deal was at Microsoft with Gates and Ballmer...Just talent in hiding. I do not believe Apple has found another Steve Jobs or Steve W. actually... Tim Cook is an operations genius, but not a great creative genius. Does anyone know who spearhead the 3-D goggles coming out? Is he/she Jony Ives' 2.0? But, Abel might be a Tim Cook where he keeps the operations going. If someone needs a big deal, will he be the one they call? It might be Jamie Dimon. Maybe, Tom Gayner? I'm not sure if the AGM will be less popular... and people might gravitate toward Markel's meeting.. Or an Ackman meeting.. or Fairfax for all I know.

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel. Watch the movie, Wall Street and just don't do what Gordon Gekko does... LOL.

@james22 - I miss Ross Perot. That guy is a character and he often shows up in some crazy places like his meeting with Steve Jobs. I can see a lot of those as problems... "The generator's out; the microwave oven doesn't work; " and then he says "the captain's gay; " LOL.... Is that a problem?

Thanks.

@formthirteen Do you know what those ten companies are? I've always respected Terry Smith, but never dug in.

At 50% interest rate, isn't that loan sharking? I mean... and people talk about cc interest rate. I watched 1MDB on Netflix too and Tinder Swinder -- just sad seeing people skirt pass their bad deeds.

I watched it after your post. I don't believed he got off..... It just re-enforces white collar crime pays. Sheesh.

I always like $EBAY, but it would be worth so much more if it kept $PYPL. In one sense, good capital allocate relative to share buyback... bad allocation on divestment... It is cheap though.

With cannibals, do you believe the share count will go down so low, and Exxon already a majority shareholder will just buy it outright?

@Xerxes - I agree. I expect Aswath's returns to be better and more well thought out than Cramer's, but it's hard to evaluate performance because they do not run a hedge fund or have anything that is auditable. I believe he mentioned he has a portion invested in BRK, but I am not sure if he has beaten the S&P. Or what his track record is. I just posted his thoughts on Citi (on that thread) and you can evaluate his assumptions and rationale. I think the stock will big higher than his valuation, but he put puts it all in a model.

True, but it's hard to have a string of great CEOs. Look at most banks.... Look at IBM and HP.... It's hard to create a dynasty.

I know there has been a lot of discussion about Cramer... but, has anyone looked as Aswath Damodaran's investment returns on his posts? I've seen his valuations on Tesla and Citigroup... and it's well thought out. Anyone done any analysis or tracking on his picks from his YouTube/blog postings? Thanks, Bill

I have not read this... but, this should scratch your itch. https://www.amazon.com/Creative-Wisdom-Wang-Chuanfu-English/dp/7508526805