beerbaron
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Everything posted by beerbaron
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Investing in the unknown unknowable (2007 Harvard faculty paper)
beerbaron replied to biaggio's topic in General Discussion
Watchout tough, Berkowitz has the best approach in regards to crisis stock. Ask yourself if the business has an actual value for society. You might have been lucky with your tobacco picks. Banks = Yes Offshore Drillers = Yes For profit education = No so much Tobacco companies = No -
Why don't you start with the patent and see if you can understand anything from it? BeerBaron
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Which restaurants offer anything under 3$? BeerBaron I bring my lunch. ;) I do it for a couple reason. Obviously, to save money, but also to avoid crap like hormones, antibiotics and GMOs. Ahh, I eat out most of the time, making my own lunch the night is not worth the trouble if you consider that to make a submarine myself costs 4-5$. Plus, half the time at night I eat at my parents... its one thing to go eat their food it's another to take the leftovers and bring it to work the next day. Lol. BeerBaron
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Which restaurants offer anything under 3$? BeerBaron
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Anybody has a copy of that 1970 Essay by Soros? BeerBaron
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Ha ha, I used to hitchhike home from the airport all the time! I'm so cheap that even when my employer is paying I take the cheapest thing on the menu. I'm so cheap that when I was 20 Years old. I went back home from the video store to get some change because I did not want to break a 50$ bill. I'm so cheap that when I eat lunch I can eat under 5$ most of the time. I recently found out why I don't really like to travel. Because the pain of having useless expenses is greater than the pleasure of being in vacation. The above applies to almost anything I buy. However, I'm not cheap when it comes to having friends and family over tough, good food and good booze makes people happy to come back another time. BeerBaron
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It depends on how you interpret it. If the markets are overvalued by 50% that would mean a possible 33% drop, 70% would mean a 42% drop... BeerBaron
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Biglari acquires insurance company
beerbaron replied to OracleofCarolina's topic in General Discussion
How about chocolate and insurance? Stamps and textile? -
Yes, when they are parked at the airport it shows all over the air traffic controller's screeen, fillin up their screen of unecessary planes and confusion. BeerBaron
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At one point I was going to write to my government representative to complain. SEDAR and SEDI are 1996 developped sites and maintained at a price for tax payers of about 5M a year. This is overpaid for something I could do in my basement in a week's work. BTW, you can buy shares of the company that manages SEDI and SEDAR. BeerBaron
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The following are a bit scary: China added 5.9 billion square metres of commercial buildings between 2008 and 2012 – the equivalent of more than 50 Manhattans – in just five years! Assuming 25% of China's worker are working in an office that would mean about 10 square meter per worker that has been added. I wish I had 10 square meter for my personal office. BeerBaron
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buying stocks with margin vs buying stocks with float
beerbaron replied to muscleman's topic in Fairfax Financial
If I remember properly it was you watsa that was you that brough the SHLD call/put disparity. BeerBaron -
buying stocks with margin vs buying stocks with float
beerbaron replied to muscleman's topic in Fairfax Financial
If you buy calls and sell putts you are basically taking a long position without putting up any capital. It's a nice way to leverage at low cost and plus sometime it can be more advantageous than buying the stock. I have seen cases where you could take positions SHLD and you would get 100% the upside and 60% of the downside because the calls were so cheap relative to the puts. It usually happens when the shorts are financing themselves by selling lots of calls. Beware tough, options because illiquid as the stock moves out of the strike. Does not matter if you plan to hold until expiration but if you like to trade often you might have bad surprises. BeerBaron -
What a fantastic investment, this deal will have made BRK 4-5 times it's money plus interest on the preferred. Berkshire has one major equity position that is not included in the table: We can buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at any time prior to September 2021 for $5 billion. At yearend these shares were worth $10.9 billion. We are likely to purchase the shares just before expiration of our option. In the meantime, it is important for you to realize that Bank of America is, in effect, our fifth largest equity investment and one we value highly BeerBaron
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For a refresher on thermodinamics I would recommend the Carnot cycle. A simple carburettor cannot increase the mileage 10 fold. I recommend reading this simple citations from Wikipedia. Again I think I'm wasting my breath because it's impossible to argue against people that believe in conspiracies. In general terms, the larger the difference in temperature between the hot source and the cold sink, the larger is the potential thermal efficiency of the cycle. On Earth, the cold side of any heat engine is limited to being close to the ambient temperature of the environment, or not much lower than 300 Kelvin, so most efforts to improve the thermodynamic efficiencies of various heat engines focus on increasing the temperature of the source, within material limits. The maximum theoretical efficiency of a heat engine (which no engine ever attains) is equal to the temperature difference between the hot and cold ends divided by the temperature at the hot end, all expressed in absolute temperature or kelvins. The efficiency of various heat engines proposed or used today ranges from 3 percent[4] (97 percent waste heat using low quality heat) for the OTEC ocean power proposal through 25 percent for most automotive engines[citation needed], to 45 percent for a supercritical coal-fired power station, to about 60 percent for a steam-cooled combined cycle gas turbine.[5] All of these processes gain their efficiency (or lack thereof) due to the temperature drop across them.
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Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value?
beerbaron replied to mikazo's topic in General Discussion
Here is the official answer to the question: Is Bitcoin a safe store of value? [glow=red,2,300]NO[/glow] -
Good luck with that: http://www.snopes.com/autos/business/carburetor.asp http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/712/has-a-200-mpg-carburetor-been-suppressed-by-the-oil-industry Guys, being in the manufacturing business I can tell you all those stories about "invention X" that was killed by a big company do not fly with what I see. It also does not fit with the game theory aspect of it. A market disruptive idea can go two way: If it's invented by a dominant player in the industry that do not want to lose it's current business. This dominant player will go the path of least resistance: work on the idea a little bit, place a few patents and try to orchestrate a rollover over time. Think of Kodak that invented the digital camera. If it's invented by a wanna be player in the industry then the company will go full speed with the idea making it their strategic advantage. Think of... well any newcomer with a superior technology that moves all the other ones. Tesla being the most recent one I can think of. All in all, there are no magical solutions. All there is is a lot of brilliant minds competing to get the best ideas and make money from it. Capitalism works quite well for doing that. BeerBaron
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They delisted from the NYSE in 2009. BeerBaron
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Your highest conviction idea for 2014 + why
beerbaron replied to steph's topic in General Discussion
A drug that can reduce all cancers as well as increase the body' ability to fight other ones. Seems too good to be true. BeerBaron -
I have to disagree with the statement that it's a good move if FB is using shares. Taking taxes out of the picture it's exactly the same as issuing 235 Millions shares in the public market and paying cash. Just like when people claim buybacks done at high valuations are a crappy way of returning money, a share is worth X dollars no matter how you look at it. BeerBaron
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What is whatsapp? Nobody i know ever heard of it.
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Why haven't Starbuck's competitors done more damage?
beerbaron replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
I remember looking at this thing when it was a net net. You are bringing back memories. I also remember that the process they use to remove caffeine from the beans is pretty long and could not be scaled at a low cap-ex (They put the bean in water, remove the caffeine from the water, put the beans back into water and let dry). I passed because I tough it was going to be a high cap-ex business against competitors with much lower cap-ex. BeerBaron -
FFH has been a drag on my portfolio for 4 years but to tell you the truth. Their prediction of deflation and huge stock market losses were not that far off it and could have gone both ways... it's been 5 years out of the recession and the developed economies grow in aggregate below 2%. Some would argue that we are not of the woods yet. Especially if we get another recession before we get rid of the malaise from the previous one. BeerBaron
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Your highest conviction idea for 2014 + why
beerbaron replied to steph's topic in General Discussion
You are in good company with Ridley, I think FFH owned a big share of the company. BeerBaron -
The author smokes crack. Mortgage rates and real estate prices are correlated like any other asset in this universe. BeerBaron
