beerbaron

My sister just lost he job at the CP last week. On the macro side it's a great thing but on the micro side there is pain... My views haven't changed but don't tell my sister! BeerBaron

Looking at the FAQ it IS a pain! BeerBaron

Levered ETF should be avoided at all cost, the fees are high and the tracking error makes it even worse. Maybe the warrants would be a better bet. BeerBaron

It's usually the result when a company has little tangible asset above the debt + a declining market. Don't forget, when the companies restructure, the equity holders have no claims and therefore get fuc***. BeerBaron

Honestly, who cares which one Taleb thinks it is, he's a good mathematician but mediocre investor. Forecasting the death of one of those 3 companies in 10 years is ludicrous, it's statistically probable that one of them will die within 10 years, but knowing which one of the three is impossible with the current available information. Keep searching for the secret Pabrai elephant, it has more chance of making you rich! BeerBaron

Very interesting debate. In my opinion Koo's has a better statistical proof, Greenwald has a "This time it's different" approach where aggregate demand is slowing. I don't think aggregate demand is slowing globally, a lot of people on this planet still don't have a car. BeerBaron

Did he say Ted and Todd are managing 4 billion each or 4 billion total? BeerBaron

Nice presentation, thanks for posting. BeerBaron

BeerBaron possesses the uncanny (and very uncommon!) ability to communicate big ideas with small (but very clear!) sentences. It seems to me the hallmark of every great investor! Or is it just the alcohol in all the beers you drink...?! ;D ;D ;D Just joking! I am most certainly a fan of yours! :) giofranchi Thanks Gio, that's a nice compliment. I don't invent those quotes usually I borrow from the great minds and leaders that went before me (this one borrowed from Brian Mulroney on VAT tax reductions). I like quotes they bring a solid point to an argument :) Have a nice day BeerBaron

Maintaining jobs for the sake of giving job is good politics, but a bad policy. BeerBaron

Well, I suck at hockey and I can barely score a goal every 5 games...it does not mean that I think Scott Gomez is a great player because he's would kick my ass. BeerBaron

I'm actually reading it's book called Influence,Munger talked about it in a speech so I bough it. I'd recommend it but a 3 page resume would bring the essential knowledge in much less time wasted. BeerBaron

Which is why, Eric, that when you say you are headed to the sidelines (clipping dividends from high quality, low risk stocks) after the next wave of wealth, I don't believe you! :) To some degree you are right but I have to play a game with myself to try to keep this manageable from a psychological standpoint. One of the funny things is that I want to move my RothIRA assets from Fidelity to Wells Fargo (where I have my checking account) but so far the only thing keeping me at Fidelity is that performance feature. I'm so vain! My advice to anyone running a brokerage business is to get one of those systems implemented right away -- it increases the stickiness of customers (although, maybe if you were doing poorly it would be an incentive to switch brokers). It's a good incetive only if the customer has above average returns! BeerBaron

At least youre retired, if you lose sleep over those paper losse you can recuperate during the day :) Seriously tough why are you still doing an all or nothing approach? I'm sure you have enough to live for the rest of your life. To paraphrase Munger: "I remember when we did not have money and it was worse then not earning a proper return" BeerBaron BeerBaron

Shalab, sorry! I don’t know how, but I missed this thread of yours! I find it extremely interesting… but you made me laugh!! I am really not a good investor!! Surely, I am not in the league of Sanjeev, twacowfca, valuecfa, Moore, uccmal, tariq, racemize, PlanMaestro, ERICOPOLY, Beerbaron, biaggio, berkshiremystery, yourself, and others who constantly write on this wonderful board! This is what I have written in a personal message to Bart this morning: Just a few words about the way I invest my firm’s free cash: I tend to stick with a bunch of owner-operators that I think I understand well enough, just because it fits my personality and I feel quite comfortable with it. I am also very risk averse: right now I am keeping a lot of cash in usd and gold, I also want to be market neutral, so I am shorting the indexes. Results, unfortunately, simply don’t care what I am comfortable with…! 2012 has been a terrible year: speculative stocks went up a lot, so I am losing money on my shorts, owner-operators went sideways at best, with FFH (by far my largest holding) that was down significantly from $410 to $350, so I am also losing money on my long positions, gold went nowhere and the euro appreciated on the usd, so I am losing money on fx as well… It really seems I got it completely wrong!! Viceversa, a lot of traders on the board are booking spectacular returns: I remember ERICOPOLY who said a month ago he was up 100% for the year! So, you see, on the board I just write about what I know, but that doesn’t mean it is the way to go, or even it has any usefulness at all… :( No, really, if you have the patience to bear with me, I’d really like to go on posting some thoughts on the board, because I enjoy the company of great investors!! But surely I am not one… not even a “do no harm” investor… “First, do no harm”: I am not even able to follow this basic and most important precept! :( But I will get better very quickly, learning from all of you! ;) Thank you, giofranchi We are in the same category this year results have not been stellar for me. But remember it's not greed that drives the world but envy. Let Ericopoly be in a class on it's own and focus on partnering with the best managers. It's a very logic approach to hands off investing that I apply myself. Here is to cheer you up, FFH has compounded money at 20% a year for 25 year, what are the odds that it was due to dumb luck? Pretty slim! You have great partners managing your money, just let them do what they are good at and wait for the good news. BeerBaron

I'm looking for some good books on how Home-Depot, Lowes, Target, etc... were able to win in their respective markets. Anybody has good books to recommend? BeerBaron

This article clearly does not know Fairfax, they won't buy back their shares at this price. If I remember correctly last time they bough back a meaningfull amount of shares it was in the early 90`s at a meaningfull discount to BV (80%). BeerBaron

Thanks I created a RSS feed, even better then looking once a week :) BeerBaron

Queries for which key words in Edgar? BeerBaron

And that mystery manager is Seth K... not it's no good, let's call him S. Klarman. BeerBaron

You might what to reflect a little bit on the difference for an economy between Quantitative Easing and credit creation. It might change your views on inflation. BeerBaron

Funny things about China, some executives just came back from a die cast factory visit and they told us the company built a huge complex for 10 times the previous capacity. They also bought hotels, and other land assets. I don't know about the company's financials but that sounds to me like speculation on real estate big time. I can't imagine the loss of equity a die cast factory could get if those RE assets go down for a prolonged period. BeerBaron

Maybe soon he'll be the one asking you to lunch anyway! BeerBaron

I could not find Arlington's 13F... anybody has the edgar name where they disclose their 13F? BeerBaron

Just buy 10 and expect more variability in your results. Risk as defined by beta will be higher but risk as defined by long term performance should stay the same. BeerBaron