beerbaron

Even if it were possible to bribe 300+ persons, 1M per athlete is not enough. Most of these athletes earn multi millions per year, why would they risk to lose it all for a fraction of that. Having this kind of wealth discourages corruption (this is the same reason Syngapore government pays it's leaders very well). Furthermore, even if one were able to bribe everybody it would not even be sure that they could pull off the score, after all they would have to make it look like they are really trying to compete. BeerBaron

This is where Kelly's forumla comes into play. Let's say you are playing head of tail. Head you win 3x the bet, tail you lose your bet. You have 10$ seed money. How much should you play? If you bet all the time all your money you will end up one day or another with a total loss. If you bet 1% of your net worth you will be compounding very slowly. Kelly's formula tells you the sweet spot where you can't lose everything but where you'll compound your money the fastest. BeerBaron

There was a big debate about the Kelly formula regarding wealth optimization VS hapiness optimization. Basically most people's unhapiness will be so bad if they lost 75$ that they will prefer the safe route. I suggest you read Fortune's Formula and Thinking Fast and Slow, they pretty much cover the whole subject. For me I would be ready to take favorable bets any seconds of my life if it represents less than 5% of my net worth. BeerBaron

It's because they call the tail of of dog a leg that it makes it true. BeerBaron

Hi I have a questions for my fellow Canadians in regards to taxes on options. If I wrote a contract for 10 AAPL at a 400$ Strike, Expires Jan 2015 about and I don't want to maintaing the full liability + I don't want to pay taxes on the puts. Can I buy 10 AAPL at a 395$ strike to limit my total exposure to 50$? Would that qualify as equivalent to buying back my 400$ Puts and hence recognizing the gain? Thanks BeerBaron

I agree with the trend here. A mix of 50% broad index and 50% bonds would be appropriate for most people. I kinda disagree about financial planners, they are paid to sell you stuff and the stuff that makes them money is not low cost ETF. Heck most financial planners would try to sell a 60 year old person a universal life insurance policy as a great investment. What frustrates me the most is the confusion when I tell them: [*]Open a brokerage account. It's like a bank account but you can hold dollars or any other securities in there [*]Buy ETX X and ETF Y based on your time horizon [*]Repeat step 2 every time you have 2000$ [*]Enjoy your life knowing you made a great deal by buying something that banks would sell you 10 times more BeerBaron

You could always short RIM to have a 0% net exposure. BeerBaron

Thank you for taking the time to provide your tough on all those points. BeerBaron

LED Lighting, manufacturing side of the business. BeerBaron

Welcome to Canada, every services is crappier in Canada. Management fees, Financial Website, SEDAR, Shipping Charges, Insider Trading Enforcement. And the list goes on! BeerBaron

Congrats to everybody with outliers returns it shows how much great minds there is around here. My returns were 23% which is a notch above my index of 50% S&P TSX/50% S&P500. I'm fairly satisfied with it because I have been running my portfolio with 30% cash and that I clone other great investor's ideas (little time invested and ridiculously low fees). 5 Years ago I told myself I would start investing in index funds if I underperformed my comparative index. I am happy to announce that you will see my posts around for another year at least :). For those that might feel pain reading returns above 30%, 50% or even 100% let me just provide you with two quotes: "Rule number one, don't lose money. Rune number two, don't forget the first one" "Envy is the worst of the sins because it gives no pleasures" I wish everybody an exceptional year in their life and for those that are less fortunate, the strength to face their challenges. As state previously money is the servant. BeerBaron

I looked at them 2 years ago too and I found them really expensive... at the current price tough it's not a bad deal. BeerBaron

Why did they disclose it if they were under 5% ownership? BeerBaron

Too late, it's impossible to go back now. Also, banks need access to the capital market as it add to their long term survival rate. BeerBaron

In old house there are some opportunities for a decent ROI, for example I just replaced my heat pump myself. Total cost was 6000$ including a new electrical entrance (that I could not do). Estimated savings should be about 800 to 1000$ a year because I was initially using oil for heating. Other nice ROI also include windows or insulations in very specific cases. Also, know your strength, if you don't like working with your hands don't do tasks that are technically difficult. Here a list of tasks/difficulties I estimate: Everybody motivated can do it Paint Plaster (3cm or less) Simple electrical (know your electric code first) Floating floor Moldings Changing doors Roof patch Chimney cleaning Fairly handy people's can do it Plumbing Wooden floor Ceramic tiles Windows Roof Shingles Dryboard and plaster New walls Don't try this unless you have patience, skills and tools Kitchen Cabinet Cutting down trees more than 30 feet high BeerBaron

I'd guess it's a more niche type of bulb and the big players probably haven't really focused on that format yet as cracking the regular bulb format will be a lot more rewarding, so most of what is available is probably terrible cheap crap (ie. ask a random Chinese manufacturer to slap the cheapest LEDs they can find in a bulb of that format and sell it without any heat dissipation or light quality testing). Just a guess though, I've never researched that type of bulb as I don't have any. Liberty, do you work in the LED area too? Because your assesment is bang on of the quality of most China manufacturers. BeerBaron

I want to see all my friends and family. BeerBaron

Is the efficiency of heating form the bulb the same as that from a heater? No, because some of the energy is "wasted" as light. I think a lot of the wasted energy comes from the conversion of AC to DC. Maybe I'm speaking generally, but the conversion for the LED bulb has some parasitic losses from the general delivery and conversion of the electricity. Interesting reads: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Currents http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/142741-tesla-turns-in-his-grave-is-it-finally-time-to-switch-from-ac-to-dc Well, in the same energy act of 2007 there was also requirements for the efficiency of external power supplies. As of today all external power supplies that ship with another product have to meet Type IV energy efficiency. It's aimed at reducing the losses of AC to DC conversion. You have NO IDEA how much headache this regulations has given me. These regulations have he benifit of forcing manufactuers to consider energy efficiency even tough the consumer really don't care. BeerBaron BeerBaron

LEDs are semiconductor devices, the cooler they get the better they run and longer they will last. When designing a light bulb the team's objective is to get the heat the LED produces out as fast as possible. Since heat goes from inside to the outside very fast the outside gets hot. Don't worry, LEDs bulbs will never become as hot as incandescent bulbs tough. BeerBaron

Well, this is the one that won the L Prize. As I said it's been tested for 25 000 hours and still works as new. It's ugly when not lit up tough so I would put in a fixture where the bulb is apparent. http://www.amazon.com/Philips-422220-17-Watt-75-Watt-Dimmable/dp/B008NNZT20/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&qid=1387056785&sr=8-12&keywords=philips+bulb+led EnergyStar is really a must because to get the logo the manufacturer has to prove that all components will last as long as expected. Also, to have the logo you have to offer a minimum warranty. I would stay with reputable brands tough, Philips, OSRAM, Cree are the first that comes to mind. You'll know in 5 years from now. Up until then I would not lose sleep over it :) BeerBaron

I'm sorry SJ but I have to disagree with you. Banning incandescent is a sensible policy because of the sheer volume of energy wasted in lighting. There are equivalent solutions on the market that not only last longer but also reduce the energy bill. Think of the amount of coal wasted because most people just don' know the more efficient solutions are worth it. Also, I have not looked at the detail of the law but it's probably aimed at the retail market. Nobody stops you from buying from a distributor or online. BeerBaron

If you are using 50W Halogen you'll likely be taking some losses in the amount of light output if you switch to LED. It's still worth it in my opinion as you'll save the hassle of changing the bulbs 2 times a year but it's good to know. BeerBaron

Yes but they still win twice in the summer days since they reduce their AC unit load... BeerBaron

LEDs is my area of expertise. Make sure you buy EnergyStar labelled bulbs and you should be fine. EnergyStar has wisened up and now they require manufacutrers to provide in situ proofs that all components will meet about 20 000 (not sure 20 is the exact number but it's in this range) hours. This forces manufacturer to choose electrical components that cost more but last longer (ceramic cap VS electrolytic). I would confidently buy the Phillips remote phosphor bulb (it's yellow on top) as it has won the L Prize. It's been running for something like 25 000 hours now and last time I check it had still around 99% of it's initial light output. http://www.lightingprize.org/overview.stm So in other words pay the price and you can be confident it will last longer than advertised. BeerBaron

They have been relaxing the policy for a long time. They can pay a fine if they have more children. I think the fine is about 10 000$ so it's not a huge expense anymore for the educated population. BeerBaron