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beerbaron

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Everything posted by beerbaron

  1. Which ones indices are you looking at? I have access to Barclays which has the info on all of their indices. I'm looking to see if it could be worth it for me to move from some equity to corporate or muni bonds. I will especially be looking for companies with high financial leverage that might wipe out the equity but survive after chapter 11. I was thinking spreads for: Muni VS Treasury High Yield VS Treasury Investment Grade VS Treasury BeerBaron
  2. Hi, does anybody have a good site to chart debt spreads of bond indexes? Thanks BeerBaron
  3. Partly because of this graph: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak#/media/File:Illustration_of_SARS-COV-2_Case_Fatality_Rate_200228_01-1.png I'm 40 years old and I see my parent every day. If I catch this and my parent get it from me, there is 1 chance out of 6 one of them will die from it. For flu there would be 1 out 60 chances my parent would die from it. One order of magnitude bigger. BeerBaron
  4. HI I'm entertaining the idea of launching a startup that would sell products online and I'm looking for primers on the overall e-commerce business. More specifically I plan on selling products exclusively on .com (more specifically Amazon to begin with). I'm pretty well versed in the brick and mortar merchandising, advertising, portfolio/product management and product development. What I'm lacking is the .com knowhow, more specifically: - Advertising (channels, measuring, tweaking, effective methods, etc...) - Product launch - Acquiring consumer feedback, boosting reviews in a cost sensitive fashion (not Amazon vine program) There are a lot of info online but I'd rather not listen on get rich in 10 weeks schemes, I'm looking to build a real sustainable business, not sell crap on e-bay. Does anybody have any books, podcast or lectures to recommend? Thanks BeerBaron
  5. Quebec is a tourist area you will get by just fine in english. Enjoy your trip an outstanding city with lively nature and night life. Beerbaron
  6. There is a great waterpark in val cartier. Also the acquarium is kinda nice. Take a day on isle d orleans. It is very nice and rustic, 20 minutes from downtown. Anything on grande allee is nice. This is a place for party tough.
  7. I don’t understand your comment. How does issuance impact the pricing? Attached is a little scenario comparison to explain. Hope it clarifies the logic. BeerBaron DRIP_Scenarios.xlsx
  8. Auto dividend reinvestment is a bad deal for you because the shares being purchased for you are usually being issued at the same time...it's a good deal for other shareholders tough. It's a better option to purchase shares from the open market because no shares get issued. Beerbaron
  9. You hit it right on the nail. Companies are not even remotely thinking about bringing back production to US. If you want firsthand experience, i m currently travelling to Asia, back from Vietnam guess what i was doing there... My company is goin full gas on getting out of china, like hundreds of SKU moving, halt on all new projects in China, etc... It was going to happen, just made it a top priority. Now how ho we profit from it is the question. Beerbaron
  10. I dont think the Chinese currency will drop 25%. Also resources are traded in USD so yes, labor drops 25% but the material cost is basically the same. BeerBaron
  11. For the last few weeks we have been spending quite a bit of time at my day job discussing new US tarifs on China and what it means for our supply chain that is all established in China. And one thing that stands out is that everybody was putting their hands in the sand thinking that Trump's tarifs were bluff but now I believe people are realizing that it's real and it might last for a long time. Believe me, the tarifs will have a real impact on China, but nobody is seriously considering returning to the US. Hence, I have been trying to find a way to profit from this by finding which countries will benefit the move of manufacturing jobs. If you think about it we might have a huge manufacturing center of 1B+ inhabitant lose jobs by the millions which should a huge bonanza for the other nations that will get this job's migration. Vietnam comes first to mind, but it's a communist country so does anybody have an idea of an indirect play on this one? Laos is also communist. Cambodgia, Thailand, Indonesia or Philippines might also be appropriate. A good way would be to buy banks in those countries. Anybody has good ideas around that theme? Thanks BeerBaron
  12. One of my best friend that I have known since I'm 4 years old has been plague with the same disease. When I was 7 years old they were telling us that my firend's life expectancy was 16 years old... today he's 38! Remarkeable the progresses that have been made there, thanks to your fondation and others! BeerBaron
  13. Thanks a million for the tip about the calculation being made on a cost basis. Turns 100K+ into 60K :) I'm so glad to be out of this shylock type of fine. BeerBaron
  14. Hi, I just got a letter from the Canadian Revenu Agency asking me for 950$ + interest because I declared my T1135 two months late. This is the first year that my forign assets went over 100K and got a newborn on April 2nd, hence had other business to atend to besides doing my taxes (usually the governement owes me money so I never pay interest). It seems like a VERY severe penalty for failure to file on time, especially considering it was my first time filing. Anybody else had this issue and were you able to settle with the CRA for a lesser amount? Thanks BeerBaron
  15. Did they break even on those lawsuit yet? BeerBaron
  16. I am looking for a crypto currency that has a volatility of up to 50%, is there such a thing? BeerBaron
  17. I did not trade in the last month but anybody knows how did Questrade support the spike in trades? IB could be running on AWS backbone that scales the CPU power based on demand. No need to maintain a constant 20x capacity. BeerBaron
  18. Don't claim victory yet, this is round one. BeerBaron
  19. I share your frustration. I miss the old days where Parsad had time to maintain the culture of the site... not a 100 pages on those crypto speculations but solid research by team members. BeerBaron
  20. Similar to your thinking, one would assume that if people were looking for store of value one would assume that gain in cryto would translate into an equivalent drop in gold. When I look at charts of golds it seems quite flat, suggesting one is speculation while the other is business as usual. BeerBaron
  21. Southside Bankshares (SBSI) in the US is well run. BeerBaron
  22. I have asked the question many times with very few answers... scability does not seem to be a concern for Bitcoin bulls. Maybe that is because trasaction volumes are of no concern because bitcoin if aimed as a store of value, not a transactional vehicle. Not sure but there is no free lunch, if a transaction today costs 20$ in energy someone has to pay for it and that that is the minimal cost not including capex. Similar to stock dilution, bitcoin dilution has a cost. People might not be seeing it because demand exceeds supply but it still is a cost. BeerBaron
  23. About 13%, sligthly below my benchmark of 50% SP500 / 50% TSX. Due to Canadian FX gaining grounds on the USD, some years it's a tailwind some it's a headwind... makes no difference in the long run tough. Performance was achieved with about 20% cash. All in all, not a bad year considering the limited time I have to do research. BeerBaron
  24. So quick calculation: 591 000 000 Gallons of oil at $2.50/Ga = 1.5 Billions in energy Cost per year Lowball estimate for bitcoin mining: 1 000 000 kWh @ $0.10/h * 24 *365 = $876 000 000 Highball estimate for bitcoin mining 4 000 000 kWh @ $0.10/h * 24 *365 = $3 504 000 000 So here is the billion dollar questions: If today's power consumption for bitcoin mining is the same as a big chunck of the overall gold produced. What is going to be bitcoin mining power consumption next year or 10 years from now? It seems to me that it is just not a scalable solution, energy efficiency gains on the IC side cannot offset an exponential growth, at least not at this stage and not with silicon. If I were in the bitcoin business I would do everything in my power to address this issue... Is there solutions that would not compromise the security aspect or fragment the network? I don't know... but I'd like to hear about it because that is a pressing matter. Can the technological side support the demand? Saying that comparing BC to 1995 internet is not the same at all. In 1995 there were OC-192 communications lines available, a solid history of the silicon process increasing 50% per year, a solid understandind of where the theorical limits were to speed and size (can't go smaller than an atom). Hence, a lot of room to grow the technical side to support the demand. All in all, the internet had technological tailwinds while crypto currencies have technological headwinds. Maybe I'm wrong but I son't see how it would make sense to spend 100B in energy cost in 5 years for now to save on a fraction of that in transactions. IMO SD has a pragmatic view of the whole picture, I would listen to him for anybody thinking to invest. BeerBaron
  25. Blockchain is nothing more than a distributed database it has huge potential but lots of hype is around that word now. As a rule of thumb if in a text you can replace blockchain with DB it's likely not a groundbreaking application. Also, blockchain is a lot less efficient than a db in terms of speed and size so you have to bear that in mind. Dont' get me wrong it will change part of the worlds "transactions" but as any new groundbreaking tech, lots of hype, just gotta separate the diamonds from the coal. BeerBaron
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