beerbaron

I agree with watsa. I would happily invest in gold if I could understand it. It seems to me gold is responsive to macro-economics and not a lot of people are good at understanding/predicting long term macro. Too many variables. If two people are left alone on an island. One has 10 ounce of gold, the other has 10 acres to grow. Which one would you prefer being? BeerBaron

In Canada, Aug 2008 to Aug 2009 inflationary rate without energy was about 1.4%. That is a big number considering we were in a huge crisis. So if there is still a price pressure upward when we are in such a mess what is it going to be when the recovery/stimulus package get traction? Some would argue that the price increase occurred because of a lag between gas prices and other commodities. I will give you that, but now after a year, if the prices don't start to stag for the next 6 months that would mean that there is other forces around. Inflation is not just the result of the local monetary policy. BeerBaron

I was wondering the exact same thing as this article about two weeks ago. I wanted to look further into it's debt/leadership problem and see if that could not be the next trigger of a major blow. I believe the bond market will tell us when things get ugly, anybody has a California bond fund to suggest keeping an eye on? I also wanted to look trough their whole book and see how bad it is but it is a VERY tedious task. Governments tend to move asset one way or another to hide deficits, you know it's there but you can't keep track of the whole thing. Anybody had found someone that compiled the whole thing? From my point of view California is bound to have a major crisis. I really don't see how they can get out of that "vote for everything" policy. This is Democracy at it's worst and there is very little political will to address the lack of common sense. It could be 2 years or 20 years, I don't know, and I'm not into the business of predicting this kind of things but I will surely keep an eye on it. BeerBaron

Thanks, I sure am under 50Mand yes computers don't do my work, common sense is not so common even truer with computers! Liquidity of those stocks is no an issue, good valuations are worth more to me then liquidity. The basket part of Net-Net is quite a problem tough, I'm trying to stay from US equities as far as possible. I consider the possibility of the USD losing value quite high in the near future. I don't like to add risks to my investments. That leaves me with Canadian equities, so a very limited choice. I found a few that showed risks much lower then possible rewards but these will have to be a small part of my portfolio in case I'm wrong. This will be a first for me, gotta try each plate that fits my taste before I can say I prefer one to the other. Regards BeerBaron

What we have in Walmart in NA is the super high-end of what you would find in current stores in China. A Walmart selling what it sells in North-America to China would sell high-end stuff to them. If you've been there you probably understand what I mean.. it's almost impossible to find a can opener that works there.I work with China every day and they don't understand what quality is yet. But they do understand price tough. BeerBaron

I was wondering if any of you guys ever found Net-Net style of investments that would be fit into Graham's specs in the last year? Most people will tell you that those kind of investments are non-existant anymore because of computers, but I tend to differ in opinion. If you found them, what were the figures in terms of Net Cash Value, PE, Etc... BeerBaron

24% RCH Richelieu Hardware 11% RCM Ruggedcom 13% MT Miranda Technologies 19% XIC ETF I-Shares S&P/TSX 22% CLF ETF Short Term Bond 10% Cash

I reviewed the Yellow Pages a few weeks ago and I rejected the purchase because of too much goodwill. If you take out the Goodwill you'll see quite a drop in the book value of the company.Also, not enough return on equity and in my opinion, they have headwinds, and their growth opportunities are not organic. One of the reaction that managements has when being confronted with headwinds and decreasing revenues is to start acquiring non core business to maintain the boat floating. This increases the risk big time and stops me from doing a good valuation on the long term. The return is quite good tough but I'd rather have the possibility of steady income. Maybe short term with a 1-2 years outlook but then... that brings you directly to 2011 where the tax laws will be effective. Some people will argue that the tax laws are already discounted off the price but I expect a nice reaction from the general public when they realize impact. I'm VERY cautions when it comes to trusts. BeerBaron