SharperDingaan

Notice that they are all in either the 'friends' or 'neutral' categories. Iran can see the ships, ships don't need the AIS turned on once they have permission, and there is no need to show the ships transiting. Nothing prevents a foe from selling their ship to a neutral (one-time sale and repurchase net of toll fee's), and the cargo to a friend; the crude/LNG still flows, courtesy of some of the best smugglers in the world . Or ...... Orange Boy could just blow things up, and the ships and cargo's of foes remain trapped. SD

Like it or not, there will very likely be a solution to the SOH and the Red Sea choke points within the next 2 weeks. We have no idea what it will be; but thereafter, shipping will again flow and it will be many months before 'near normal' returns. At some point, there will also be an agreed end to hostilities. The US takes its war machine home to a mid-term election; no more Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi funding ... no more Israeli incursions into neighbouring territories and a exit from Gaza. Both Trump and Netanyahu need the war to continue in some form. SD

The reality is that the SOH is already open, to those in Iran's 'neutral' and 'friendly' categories; and tankers are transiting. Most in the 'neutral' category paying a levy that isn't unduly harsh. Oman/Iran also in diplomatic talks with the UN to restore transit. However; it remains closed to anything US, or US allied. As the US likes to keep saying that it doesn't need the oil ... no reason to change soon. US inability to open the SOH is not the protection those allies are paying for; so little reason to continue paying, or continue buying US weapons ... once this is over (petrodollar recycling) . Buy Ukrainian instead ! 3 US aircraft carrier groups in the region ... all kinds of bombing, drones still flying, uranium destruction/recovery still a mystery, and not one boat offered up for tanker escort. Orange Boy bombing the place isn't going to do anything but drive up crude prices Today its a war zone; but tomorrow after SOH negotiations are done, and the US goes home ... there is little reason for crude to stay at such elevated prices. Use the opportunity . https://eadaily.com/en/news/2026/04/04/al-jazeera-iran-divided-tankers-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-divided-into-three-categories https://ca.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-fc-5918_3&ei=UTF-8&hsimp=yhs-5918_3&hspart=fc&param1=7&param2=eJwtjstqwzAURH9FywQk%2BV5bkqVoFTfNB5SuKrRQHNURfmI7uPTri0uYzcCcgdOku7P%2B44IAUpbKUT846wWAcNTvk6O%2BdtYbYxz1aXLWYym41hyF4SU46ps4Ouvr4Kh%2FBmd9P%2F6mrguZ5EAOWxru47aQYSUIHCzZ0qCEJT9KHEmYpi5u8damNZNFyQtFDu1j7TtKutRG0sS6HY%2BkfsxjHzMUisMesoTvMKfXZdda0kv1ucT5v78VQsp3DQxAVQzxiszoa8E0XtRZF1idVbXz9Q7nkCsGOYP8E80JyxMonmv4%2BgMi31GY&p=iran+strait+of+hormuz+news&type=fc_A0DBACA6D59_s69_g_e_d_n4004_c999#id=5&vid=11482f842b3d91edda94df2bcf8ae571&action=click SD

It would seem that Orange Boy also can't count ........ The largest bridge in Iran was destroyed on Apr-03; two days later the Iranians still telling him to f**** o** https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/video-irans-biggest-bridge-b-1-destroyed-by-us-airstrikes-trump-issues-new-warning-to-tehran-article-153985658 Stuck in the tar pond, can't get out; let's go to hell together !!!. Drowning man. SD

It would seem that the market reopening could be quite impressive, and then there's Tuesday . https://x.com/Energy_Tidbits/status/204076745032173618 Sometimes .... all that military might and war training at a West Point, Sandhurst, etc. means squat. What's Orange Boy really going to do comes Wednesday, should the SOH still not be open, and everything has already been bombed? Drowning man, who can't swim. SD

Keep in mind that sale and repurchase is purely a tactical swing trade; it has little to do with the underlying investment. A scalp of the 10-15% 'media' TDS hype on the way up, and another 10-15% off the depression on the way down . All that is required is (1) a place to park proceeds, and (2) Orange Boy staying alive long enough to enable a quiet repurchase of what was sold . All hail the US military! SD

Keep the funny money via a sale of o/g in tranches; proceeds held in cash, awaiting a later repurchase at lower prices . In the near term, everyone outside the Gulf will be temporarily supplying whatever they can, using the forward markets to lock in > budget 'windfalls', and cutting back as soon as the region reopens. Ideally, the price spikes tip the G7 towards recession, and BTC conveniently falls like a brick . Little incentive to do greenfield investment, when it's much less capital intensive to just do consolidation M&A instead. New production primarily from efficiency gains and reduced depletion. SD

Have to think that after the bridge/power-generation targeting, and the targeted oil/water facility responses; crude jumps quite a bit after Easter break. Highly likely that it is intentional, as the US treasury has magically disappeared from the spot market . Good time to selectively lighten up in stages . Orange Boy begging for a deal, the drones continue to fly, the mighty US air force now getting shot down?, and USD 60K/head on aircrew? This time .... recovered before the Iranians could get to them ..... but next time, maybe not so lucky?. Doubtful the SOH opens next week (vs discussion), and most would expect a strike in the Bab-el-Mandab. All that Red Sea crude arriving by pipeline, suddenly threatened as well. Interesting times. SD

Trump does the 'stone age' thing; per the extensive list below, it will be war crime; have to assume that Hegseth had to fire the army chief of staff 'cause he wouldn't play ball. A much bigger problem for Netanyahu, as there is already a 2024 war crimes arrest warrant on him, and the Mossad has a history of extrajudicial prosecution of war criminals. The best outcome for an Israel, would be if Netanyahu never sees the inside of a Hague court room, and is interred via a state funeral; sooner vs later. Same thing for Orange Boy, should he ever also see an arrest warrant. https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule156 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-fires-army-chief-of-staff-randy-george-b2951258.html SD

+1 Used the opportunity for swing trading warrants ; sadly, the market isn't as liquid as we'd like!. Volatility amongst the junior o/g coy's should spike again around May when Q1 results are out; and the hedge book rollovers become public SD

+1. It isn't just the crude, it's also the ship registration Iran re-registers the Russian shadow fleet as Iranian, buys Russian cargo at a sanctions discount to re-brand it as Iranian, and resells in Rotterdam as unsanctioned oil . Transactions priced in Yuan/Euro, settled on the Chinese banking system, and the sanctions discount split 4 ways between Iran, EU, Russia, China. All purely bonus bucks .... and nothing to do with the actual tolling Have to think that ultimately, the Ukraine also gets folded into NATO in return for all Russian sanctions dropped, and an end to the war. Europe benefits, everyone within NATO now spending their 5%+, and diversifying military sourcing away from the US. Could not have happened without Orange Boy. SD

Shush .... The reality is that there will be a toll booth across both the SOH and the Red Sea. The mechanics discussion already underway; most would expect the initial outcomes to be a resumption of goods flow and reparations paid to all the Gulf states, versus just Iran. Sure the US could simultaneously blow up all the Iranian power plants, but it also stops Iranian oil production, along with desalination, and the uranium centrifuges. Stops the 1.2M b/d that is actually flowing out of the SOH, and invites eye for and eye retaliation; you take our water, we take yours, we all die together. Piss and wind. It is now quite obvious, the marines are there to retrieve the uranium produced to date. Grab it, go home, and show it to the US public as proof of justification; no different to displaying gold bars in the bank window to circumvent a bank run. Of course ...... no independent checks, confirming that what is in the window, is not actually US uranium .... 'cause the Iranian uranium couldn't be found Notable is that tolling applies to both o/g and goods flow in both directions, and disproportionately hits Europe more; outbound gulf crude bound for Rotterdam via the Suez paying tolls 3 times (SOH, Suez Canal, Gibraltar). The US also gets to toll the North West and North East passage at the west end; with Russian and Greenland tolling at the east end. Southbound pipelines to Canada's west and east coasts, avoiding the tolls, and applying the savings to the cost of the infrastructure build. Have to think that once the choke point tolling mechanisms are formalised, Canada becomes a quasi Gulf state; east coast crude/LNG exports bound for Europe, west coast crude/LNG exports bound for Asia, north coast crude/LNG exports bound for everyone else and the US. Most likely with state-of-the refining capacity in Canada as well. The immortal Timbuk 3; Futures so bright I gotta wear shades https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY SD

Have to think that the SOH remains closed for the next 3-4 weeks; ongoing strikes and toll arrangements will take some time to implement. VZ heavy is also not going to be flowing for some time yet. Great for Canada SD

It just recognises the world as it is, and modernises it. Everywhere there is a choke point, a UN toll to pay for the defence of safe passage; if there is no defence, no toll. User pays according to transit; protection payments to whoever is best suited in that region. State, warlord, etc ... all equal. States still free to assassinate, war against each other as they see fit. No different to every protection racket around the world; pay your 2%, build it into your cost, and we're all golden. Evolution ensuring that your protector is always whoever is at the top of the heap (the bad/obsolete dead). This century approach. SD

Hence the amendment. Principle: User toll charged to the world to pay for the defence and safe passage of shipping through choke points. (1) Tolls exist at private choke points, they have enabled more efficient transits, are routinely paid by shippers worldwide, and have been a common custom for decades (Suez, Panama, etc). This simply extends existing private practice into the public space, as best serves the purpose. (2) Global shipping routes has been exposed to piracy for centuries, with defence costs voluntarily born by the major navies of the world. This is simply modernisation; that transfers the defensive responsibility, and recovery of costs, to a different recovery mechanism. (3) Responsibility for enforcement of The Law of the Sea, becoming a collective shared user responsibility, alongside a mechanism to pay for it. Elegant. SD

Have to think this is part 1 of the exit ramp: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/tehran-approves-new-hormuz-plan-with-major-restrictions The bill reinforces Iran’s sovereign authority over the strait, granting a central role to the country’s armed forces in its implementation. It also emphasises coordination with the Sultanate of Oman in shaping the legal framework governing the waterway. Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref earlier stated that the management system of the Strait of Hormuz “has changed and will not return to what it was”, as Tehran works to convert recent gains into concrete economic and security guarantees that affirm its sovereign interests. The obvious part 2 is renegotiation of the legal framework with Oman. Obvious changes are (1) some type of UN sovereign authority replacing Iranian (2) Rotating UN escorts based at some of the existing US bases within the Gulf; replacing the US in some cases (3) A per barrel transit toll in Euro/Yuan paid to the UN authority, that is in turn paid out to the various Gulf states as damages reimbursement (4) A per ton transit toll on all other freight going in/out of the SOH, processed the same way as the oil transit toll, and (5) Expansion over the Red Sea as well as the SOH. Trade freely flows through the choke points again, ongoing protection, and the US/Israel go home. Thereafter, the tolling legal infrastructure applied to the other maritime choke points in the world, via an amendment to the International Law of the Sea. Existing tolling precedents taken from both the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal. Elegant, and simple. Orange Boy gets a way out. SD

Always remember that those posting on COBF are not representative of the population as a whole. Many are self-made, and the survivors standing atop the piles of skulls of those who blew up. SD

Mortals hold common stock; margined, if you want extra excitement. The very good, work for the commodities traders; the other side of your trade ...... feeling lucky ??? The bastards, are just opportunists ..... my kind of scum! SD

Dead men are a lot safer; they tell no tales, and their dirt dies with them. SD

Aaaaah, the dark side ..... If you don't work in the treasury of a commodity trader, this is a really bad idea. Mere mortals hope for fireworks, and progressively sell into it at hopefully ever rising prices. Find a place for all that cash, wait for victory to be declared, the boats to go home, and quietly buy it all back for a lot less Bastards recognise that fireworks lower the price of parking spots, and victory speeches elevate them. Terrible shame to waste the opportunity SD

Hitler had the same problem, and was also the commander of a similar military machine (for its time); sadly, it isn't unique. It didn't go well for Germany, and the military machine at the time was repeatedly unsuccessful in his removal. Given how practised the CIA and Mossad has been at this for decades, most would expect a different outcome. Have to think that if a Trump or Netanyahu ends up with another Vietnam, there will be state funerals; while the new leaderships negotiate an exit. https://www.history.com/articles/6-assassination-attempts-on-adolf-hitler C'est la vie. SD

+1 Whether WTI spikes to USD 120/bbl tomorrow, or stays < USD 100/bbl (courtesy of the US Treasury), isn't relevant unless you are trading crude futures. Reporters need to verify stories against the trading community, and the community spins according to the trading book of the day. It's a great system For mere mortals .... damage to date, and how long it may take to get back to 'normal', is much more relevant. Supply chains are getting squeezed, knock-on effects magnified by seasonality, are creating opportunities; straight forward commodity supply/demand forecasting. Macro not worth considering, as the +/- is so wide as to make any kind of nearer term prediction useless The reality is that crude WILL freely transit both the SOH and the Red Sea; we just have no idea as to how that eventually prevails. Uncertainty = volatility = opportunity. SD

The more recent and extreme example is o/g. The reality is always look at the basin macro first, to determine the current incentives; drill, buy, pay down debt, buy back, or special dividends. Thereafter trust in your conclusions, and execute well ahead of your competition ... the fish in a barrel. The 'push-back' is always being out of sync with the industry 'story telling' ... everyone else (who didn't blow up last month) suddenly an expert, earnestly trying to convince you that you're wrong. As with walking onto a factory floor, assess via the overall volume and tempo of the noise heard ... Takes years of practice SD

We're with Gregmal on this ... 'cause it really is funnier than hell The issue is not inflation (whatever name), it is the magnitude of the interest rate at the term chosen; real + inflation rate. Everybody and his uncle around the world borrowing for defence, infrastructure build, trade deficits, etc. bidding for funds in a globally competitive market for the savings ... what do you think happens to the real interest rate . We've had cheap money ever since 2000; MBS, GFC I and II, negative interest rates/QE, Covid, yada, yada, yada. One has to look back to the 1980's and 1990's to get any idea as to high 'normal' is; before handicapping it for change in the economy over the last 25-40 years!. Back then ... the more 'normal' 5-yr fixed rate mortgage in Canada was around 7-8%. Another 50% over where we are - just to get back to 'normal' Most of this 'angst' is mindset. If you're an analyst < 40, your 'norm' for your entire working life to date, has been nothing but a low interest rate environment experience. Tell me what to do !!! Opportunity You only need a 12% ROE to double in 6 yrs; simply sit on your ass at no risk, and buy a 6 yr+ Treasury/Canada with a YTM of 12%; interest in your spending currency, adjust via the coupon rate, according to income requirements. And should a G7 issue a zero-coupon bond, kiss 'em So what? Bond funds fall like a brick, housing becomes more affordable (post collapse), indices fall a little less so; all of which are not a bad thing. But terrifying, if you and your network have never experienced this kind of thing before .... Example. Toronto and Vancouver have a great many 'investor' condo's; a one room, bathroom, and maybe a small galley kitchen, impossible for a family to live in. Hard to sell, even at deeply discounted prices; many builders part-way through construction expected to bankrupt. The obvious solution is a asset purchase out of bankruptcy, unit completion, and a re-purpose as a long term homeless shelter. New builds, hundreds of people accommodated, and at an annual cost well below what it costs agencies today. Radical change, is not necessarily a bad thing. SD

Sure, Marines could seize the Kharg Island oil at any time, and empty the storage tanks; but its oil that was already flowing out of the SOH. The Iranians just turn off the taps refilling the tanks; and let the 1.2 M boe/d squeeze drive crude prices higher Marines could also try to de-populate the coastal caves to stop missile launches on shipping transiting the SOH; but there's a lot of 'them', few of 'you', and they only need a few 'successes'; Toyota's with truck-mounted 'ship-killers' are ubiquitous. Houthis vs the Saudi's is often mocked; but the Saudi's have had to pay the Houthis, twice, to give them back the key city at the entry to the Red Sea. Toyota's with truck-mounted 'ship-killers; and a 5-7 M boe/d squeeze on crude prices even if only partly successful SD