SharperDingaan

The media's 'sources', only feed what they want published The reporter 'verifies' against an independent source (the 'sources' beer buddy in the next building), gets the same story, and we're golden! When the trading desks want the story changed .... a new feed. Great system SD

Great for a Canada, with its safe supply of greener heavy! Seldom mentioned is that Canada also gets an immediate boost ... if the current 70% full Afrimax tankers (harbour depth restriction) only have to travel a short distance, to transfer at sea into VLCC's in international waters off Vancouver Island. 4 Afrimax to 1 VLCC which then does the haul to Asia ... materially improving logistics . SD

Now, an enterprising smuggler could do very well here. Iranian tanker fills with Iranian oil and exits the SOH (toll free). While in Omani waters (1) the ship is sold to a US buyer (via a sale and repurchase), and (2) the cargo sold to a US buyer (treasury) ... to make good on a shorted futures contract . Wave nicely to all the pretty sailors ... as you now sail by as a US ship and cargo . Drop the cargo, repurchase the ship, re flag it as a neutral, and freely help yourself to freight rates everywhere outside of the Gulf. Deliver US, CAD and VZ oil to both China and India Even an Ari Onassis would be proud of this SD

We're back at 50% . Mostly 'cause both Q1 earnings releases, record dates, and M&A are close. We also recognised that it took Kissinger 3 yrs to successfully conclude his negotiations; Vance doing it over a weekend ????? The thrashings of a drowning man just took another 1.2M boe/d off the market (Iran's current egress). How do you think that goes on Monday ?? ..... before there are more Saudi E-W pipeline damage curtailments from drone attacks . SD

US gas prices continue to rise ... lowest price is now USD 3.40/gallon. The failed Iran/US talks, and the now US blockade of the SOH, still to come https://www.gasbuddy.com/usa SD

It really is a time to make volatility your friend Q1 earnings announcements and dividend record dates coming up. Lots of excitement when after-tax cash flow comes in ahead of budget; particularly the CAD small to mid-caps. The first M&A announcement also locking in the current futures curve . Everybody working hard on opening the SOH; only the how is in dispute. When it opens crude prices drop rapidly; but average price rises, every additional week closed. Ship owners incentivised to not run the straight (insurance will replace a sunk ship, but it will take years to replace it, while missing out on the current highest freight rates in history). Or, pay the toll, and not have your ships return to the SOH (ships now available to exploit the current high freight rates elsewhere on the seas). One day a week of optimism (straight is opening!), one day of pessimism (talks failed, again!), three days of blah (nothing really changed) . Holdings at < 50% of 'norm' are a bet on lower prices, holdings at > 50% of 'norm' are a bet on higher prices; higher the crude price, the higher the share price. It's happening! Raise holdings in the sell off to the neutral 50%. It's an utter sh1te show! Sell holdings into the price rise, and down to 25% Record dates and earnings. Blah days are good .... do nothing! Rinse and repeat, weekly. Not what many want to hear ...... Good luck. SD

Nah .... millions clearly showing that inflation is here, and in your face ... yet not seeing it in the charts ..... is evidence that the wrong things are being measured, in the wrong time frames. Economists measuring what they can vs what they should be, and misinterpreting results. That grocery budget ... AFTER SUBSTITUTION ... should show minimal inflation. Had you measured the change in the cost of the SAME basket of goods BEFORE substitution (definition of inflation) ... the results would be very different. All of a sudden ... white is the new black !!!!! The opportunity SD

.... gets assassinated in public, and exits on a Kennedy moment. Stock markets the world over, go ballistic SD

Grocery prices will move around for many reasons; if you can substitute beef, for cheaper lamb or pork, all good. If you're American, and it results in smaller portions spaced further apart (healthy or not); that might not be a bad thing either. Thing is; that grocery shopper is substituting, because the price of what they usually buy has gone up. In your face inflation, whether or not policy makers choose to recognise it. That 4, 5, 6% interest rate at term X; is the real rate for the Central Bank + the nations inflation rate + a premium for the higher risk in lending to a bum (vs the Central Bank). Everybody and his brother, now borrowing big from the same creditors, and a growing distaste for USD (maturing T-Bills routinely not rolling over in full), suggests a higher real rate for the US Fed. Growing credit issues within the US suggest higher premiums. Even if inflation remained dead flat (highly unlikely), it's hard to see interest rates NOT rising; the poorer the credit, the higher the rise. Maybe the 1-yr T-Bill rate rises 75-100 bp. Enough to screw up your day, but not kill you . SD

That blunt discussion has long been overdue, and modernisation is not bad thing. SD

Yesterday you could buy your groceries for $100. Today you still only have $100 to spend, but at higher prices the grocery quantity is now a lot smaller (shrinkflation), and you eat smaller portions. With no substitution you have inflation; that same $100 divided over a smaller quantity. Kids go hungry, so you substitute with cheaper items, and give up quality. The same $100, same size grocery bag, same size portion on your plate, but now more veg and a lot less of the healthy proteins, if any. No inflation today, but a year out ... maybe you're visiting a doctor, as you're now very unhealthy. Look at what people actually do, not what charts say they do. Millions of people will loudly tell you that there is inflation, and that it is obvious !!! ; the grocery store bill, the gas bill, rent, utilities, yada, yada. Yet the economist will insist no; there is no inflation!!. How can the elites (economist) be so stupid, as to not see what is right in their face !!! . Maybe ...... 'cause the economists (with little/no 'real world' experience) aren't measuring the right thing, and inflation isn't the message that policy makers want to hear. Exploitable . SD

Israel has no Patriot missile reloads, unless the Saudi's release theirs from inventory. When there's little left in the magazine; do something stupid and Iranian missiles fall on Tel Aviv. Israel's new planes now have a lot of hours on them; with short range, and without US Tanker support, they can't get far outside of the country .... and return. Without US replacement parts and ongoing weapons assistance, they are junk; so do as the US asks, when it asks, and do it immediately. The IDF is overstretched, and cannot sustain ongoing wars in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon at the same time; surge only works for a short time, then everything needs to stop. Israel needs the ceasefire as much as Iran does. Israel plays ball, or else. SD

Most would expect inflation to tick higher. Higher prices for anything that uses petroleum products, times lower demand as tariffs/taxes/higher prices does its thing. Same amount of money chasing fewer goods = inflation. SD

Have to think that WTI is going to bounce in the USD 90-110 range, until the US drops the hammer on Netanyahu, and the Israelis stop the fighting in Lebanon. The deal applies to both the US and Israel and includes Lebanon .... no matter whether the Israelis agree or not. Lot of ways it could go, and an opportunity https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next SD

Most every CFA/CA will start off in the ‘wealth management’/big four auditors. Resume building, articles completion, assisted by those with ‘connections’, and fired at the end of the current economic cycle. Everybody in their mid to late 20’s, arrogant, and mostly mediocre. The movies feedstock. The down cycle is typically used to go back to school, get the MBA, and wrap up anything outstanding around the CFA/CA. The more mature, or those wishing for family, then hire into the corporate/government world … and accumulating experience traps everyone into their industry silos. The better mediocre live .... simply 'cause the best went elsewhere Time goes by, cream rises, and eventually there’s a golden handshake. Thereafter, it’s often a better gig, to just be your own portfolio manager, concentrated in your old industry. The ‘retired’ CFA/CA/MBA with the same skill sets, similar experience, but no institutional restrictions, AUM pressure, sociopaths to deal with, or whining share holders . Freedom! …. but only if it’s treated as a business, whilst you are able. SD

Not really; it's more a match of the technical (CFA, CA, MBA), fit with the industry of choice, and opportunity/experience. Lot of good builders are terrible at the investment business, simply 'cause it's a poor industry match. Lot of o/g treasurers are good at o/g portfolio management, simply 'cause it's a better industry match. Thereafter, it's just a choice as to whether to be public or private. SD

+1 Most people will just never get that much of this is just time (short vs long) arbitrage, project management (limited term engagement), and selecting a boat fit for purpose (don't always need a Suncor). Most will also never get that the rest of it is primarily risk management; keeping the funny money, always taking money off the table, and dissipating the rising toxicity (you aren't a commodity 'Jesus'). Treat it as a business, and a lot of things fall into place. Given that most are utter sh1te at building businesses ... the poor success rate should not be unexpected, and the more bunnies the better SD

We sold off 75% of our o/g holdings in the last few days, and now have the opportunity to roll back into the same positions for materially less. Hence the shopping. We aren't going back to USD 60-70 WTI anytime soon, and it will be bumpy. Highly likely WTI goes back over 100 for a time before it fades down to 80. Price shocks have already occurred, and more will be coming in the various economic sectors. Higher costs should be expected. SD

The need for the toll has been established. Now it's just a haggle as to how much, for how long, and who gets it. Have to think an initial 10 years, then a renegotiation to accommodate changed times. SD

Looks like tomorrow could be a great day for shopping Good luck. SD

I live in the real world Pay our thugs (Iran) to NOT fire ship-killers at your tankers. No different to the shop keeper paying a weekly cut to avoid broken windows, a hassled workforce, and mysterious fires on a weekly basis. Pay the 1% 'cause its cheaper than replacing windows and fire repairs/insurance. Just another cost of doing business. SD

Peacetime does not remove the need for ongoing protection/security, and keeping both the SOH and the Red Sea open when peace suddenly changes to conflict. Somebody has to do it, that cost needs to be covered by users, and it's better if it's done via a coalition arrangement (UN, etc.) vs any individual country. The US is just pissed 'cause it doesn't want Iran providing the protection, and the collected tolls paying for damages throughout the Gulf .... as a result of the war. Those tolls should be going to the US/Israel to recover the costs of the war effort !!! . SD

Most would expect that SPR's will be filled from incremental production over the next 4-24 months. VZ heavy oil production/egress (as it occurs) going to the US, CAD heavy going to Asia. Delivery via in-kind fulfilment on forward contracts at different terms. No impact on price; for producers, higher production for longer. Upward bias on forwards throughout 2027. No one wants to refill at today's high prices. 4 months out, when spot and forwards are lower across the curve .... a different story. SD

+1 The reality is that it's just money, and USD 2-3/bbl isn't going to change trade decisions. The positive is that the pot will also be large enough to keep everyone honest; those who stray, hung from a bridge as a message to others. There is a reason why the Iranians are so good . SD

Very good! Propaganda on both sides, but ultimately the idea of the SOH being a toll booth is already functional. The US can do what it wants with Iran, but it's very unlikely that the Gulf is ever going back to 'free' transit through the worlds maritime choke points. All these choke points need security; it's now just how users pay for it, and who receives the protection money. Destroying power plants and above ground precursor chemical production, doesn't stop missiles flying. Generators and batteries are widely available, and Iran has been planning/building for decades .... the US, not so much. Walking away afterwards is also not as simple as simply flying/sailing home. Seems good for a healthy price spike, but it's time to take the funny money off the table. Good luck SD