SharperDingaan

Russian crude is about to be 're-branded', as a 'blended' OPEC crude of 51% 'Other'/49% Russian ???. The Russian crude bought at a deep discount, 'blended' at various storage facilities, and the 'blend' sold at a discount to offset the recent SPR releases around the world? https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-religion-9b10ce4f2cfe5bdeed5658fe45373e54 SD

Think of them as lend/lease. Lend as operation/maintenance by offshore independent contractors over Ukraine airspace, feeds tied to AI facial/body recognition. Lease of the weapons dropped under target lock. Different weapons for different targets. Bounty on the high-value target split between the Ukraine and the contractor, Ukraine portion paying the lend. No play, no pay. The more on the card deck, and the higher the bounty, the better - capitalism at its best, Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap???? AC/DC .... SD

Just to stir the pot ... New home buyers are just trying to get on the property ladder. They know squat, parrot phrases, and have inflated expectations. They just need a roof over their head, Rent until you can afford to buy, lower your expectations if you want to buy earlier - it's that simple. I DON'T WANNAH!!, vs I don't give a sh1t! If you went to a college/university you lived in a dorm or shared a house - you got your first job in a NY. Chicago, London, Paris, etc. and you did the same - for YEARS. You wanted to hook up with someone, you RENTED a house together. Then you decided on kids, and SUDDENLY renting became unacceptable ??? All that has really happened is that you have discovered how poor you are actually are. WTF! The reality is that if you can't afford a new build, you cant afford a house - period. Despite the builder doing everything he/should could to move that new product (condo or house) - if you still couldn't afford it, it's really on you. If builders thought there was more money in starter homes, they would build them. If they aren't building what you can afford, either come up with a bigger deposit, or look elsewhere. BWAAAH! So what? New build starter-home activity is driven primarily by speculation on how much mom/dad, gran/grandpa are going to contribute to the deposit/down payment. Interest rates go up in a big way, contributions can be higher - but until then new build starters don't get built. Downside possibilities around the shares of the more 'frothy' homebuilders SD

'I have been slowly adding to my BTC position.' For us, it's new investment via purely passive ETF's, set at 25% of all realized oil/gas net gains. Old BTC investments remaining both experimental, and as a side-car - to contain risk. We're doing a deep dive in/around NFT, and have a nephew looking to spend some time in Estonia. Early days yet, and we need the Ukraine thing to resolve itself first; but we see some real possibilities. Hopefully, he eventually gets to talk shop with some of the original crew.. SD

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/ These were little missiles, and proofs of concept - sailors walked away. Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the precision guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? SD

If you live in the former Russian republics, and have had the war experience; you have a very different POV. A Russian success in the Ukraine means you're next - and your best defense against a destroyed future, and your cities being turned into rubble 'AGAIN' - is to do whatever you can to foil Russia's Ukraine advance. You are also very aware that when good people don't act, when they can - the result is another Hitler. And that help ... can come in a great many different ways. Kids/moms/grandparents need to be got out, re-hosted, and de-traumatized somewhere safe. They are the Ukraine's future - and the return ticket 'home'. Thereafter, the focus shifts to slaughtering Russian troops - as ruthlessly, and brutally as possible. Every time something moves in a Russia, there is a record, and it is a very leaky boat. Everything from accumulation of evidence for war crime prosecution, through to the bank accounts, smuggling conduits, fuel and ammunition stores/locations, and all in near real-time volumes. 'Cause the more you have to pay the sanctions breaker, the less there is for you. Death by suffocation. Weapons, and intelligence inflows are an easy thing. Lend/lease a little more difficult, when its live time, and a drop from a high-tech drone with a target lock. Other vehicles are just proofs of concept. State craft is to states, and for very good reason. However most would think that the clock on Russia is rapidly ticking down. Keep scanning your daily copy of Pravda! https://english.pravda.ru/ SD

This is Russia. All that is certain, is that change, when it comes, will be both swift and brutal (as his 'supporters' will need to be rapidly terminated as well). The well-worn path by many a future dictator, is a supporter suddenly becoming an assassin, with bounty payments offered, to help the successor get up and running. Thing is; there can only be one successor, and 'president for life' has a different meaning. Game theory typically favors the 'next in line', and not the initiator; hence everything remains 'stable', until suddenly it isn't, and chaos prevails for a period as the old 'helper network', makes way for the new. Initiation, sets off a chain of events, that successors have to survive. Failure is a pine box. As the return has to be worth the risk, every existing dictator has a 'grace period'. Fail in the Ukraine, and Putin very likely enters it. Whether dead via 'regime change', or dead via 'war crime prosecution', the outcome is still 'dead' - but he lives longer if he focuses on the former. The man is very good at what he does, but everybody eventually get 'old'. Our own view is that China is the king-maker. Trigger being a threat to turn off access to the Chinese banking system; but until then, why work the orange when you are already getting its juice? SD

Think weapons and operators as free - a simple $ investment in the brand. Simple case: Cannon + supersonic ammunition on a tripod, supported by X rotors. Military grade vision/feeds, 60-90 minute battery life. Pops up, fires its burst, pops down; sound hits the target after the bullets do. Rearmed with new ammunition and battery packs, in the field. Recharge the batteries off solar. Simpler case: Drone swarm carrying magnetic limpid mines. A few attack, most settle amongst the dead tanks and switch off. A while later, switch back on, deposit the mine over live tank engines/magazines, fly home. Mines go off, drones rearm with new mines/battery packs in the field. Tanks, artillery, and choppers die. In large quantities, and for cheap. SD

It is s simple thing to link AI facial recognition to a digital feed from a drone. Thereafter, it's just whether execution is automatic or subject to a manual oversight. In the Ukraine? Maybe it's a drone swarm over a munitions/fuel convoy/dump. Alternatively, an airborne cannon that can quickly be rearmed in the field. It doesn't have to look pretty, it just needs to demonstrate proof of concept, and be able to work in the dark. SD

Denial works until the body bags show up. The grieving process is exploitable for a short time, then you lose control. Country Joe And The Fish: And you can be the first ones in your block. To have your boy come home in a box. And its one, two, three. What are we fighting for? Putin remains, only so long as he is useful to the regime, and the clock is ticking. Time at the top is a limited term engagement; no matter who you are, or where you are. Colonialists are widely unpopular today, but the fact is they knew their stuff, and were very good at the colonizing 'process'. Local 'strong men' were routinely installed for roughly 10 years, then 'turned over' in favor of the next generation. Long enough to dictate as they wished, but not long enough to accumulate enough power to threaten the colonizing regime. When costs > benefits, you simply granted 'independence'. SD

Remember the Falklands War? The sinking of the HMS Sheffield made the Exocet missile famous (and sold hundreds). Sink one of the larger Russian sea-borne cruise missile launchers, in a single strike, and you too will sell hundreds of these. Your existing inventory will also instantly double/triple in value on the back market - and the launch of that missile ..... could come from anywhere. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/15/revealed-full-story-behind-sinking-of-falklands-warship-hms-sheffield https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet The updated version of the 'Warthog' is the 'Gunslinger', a remote controlled drone. One has to assume that there are at a least a few 'Beta' versions about, with similar weaponry, that need to 'prove concept' - on ideally, live targets. Tank killers, built for open land killing fields, beaming back simultaneous video? The more sophisticated versions hunting people? Doesn't look good for the conscripts. SD

There has been quite a bit of time to prepare for Donbas, and a lot of people have a commercial need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their advanced weaponry on live targets. Those open lands are killing fields, and a strategic sinking will do wonders for sales. As would predator drones successfully decapitating Russian leadership. Turning Donbas into rubble simply makes pro-Russian sentiment, very anti-Russian; as will the mass termination of large segments of population to maintain fear. Obviously, it doesn't go well for Russian conscripts, or their leadership. A failure, also demonstrates that the czar is weaker than thought, and raises opportunities ..... There is no point to live demonstration, without video proof. Lots of lovely images beaming into Russia. SD

There is a Canadian flip side to all this .. If, within the next 5-10 years, you were planning to convert a portion of a RRSP into a RRIF; you are probably going to see a 'guaranteed' interest rate of at least 2-3x what you are seeing today. Terrible thing, to pass on such an opportunity SD

BTC has many attractions, beyond just the functions of money. Similar to venereal disease (Impossible to kill), and the very robust de-facto counterpoint to capital controls and central bank digital currency. Both security and decentralization are king; all that is required is internet, and a local currency/BTC exchange rate. Forking, shards, lightning networks, etc. is simply batch processing. Process thousands of transactions/second, net them off, and buy/sell the BTC difference once every few minutes. No different to what most GSIB's and DSIB's already routinely do with settlements, multiple times a day. Security and Decentralization at the BTC level, Centralization and Scalability at the batch processing level. A work-around solution. The more batch processing the more net settlement demand for BTC, as crypto becomes more mainstream. The more global disruption, driving payment via BTC, the more transactional demand. And the higher the total transactional demand for BTC is, the sooner the 21M coin release is achieved. At which point BTC demand/supply settles on the price of the Satoshi needed to pay the miner, and a BTC trades at 100M x the price of a Satoshi. BTC inflation 'value' is predicated on a maximum 21M coin. That 1M+ of lost and/or 'frozen' coin along the miner distribution phase, remain lost 'forever' - really? Or is it much more likely that it is < 20M of BTC coin, and 1M+ of BTC naked derivatives? ('theoretically' supported by the coin in those lost and/or frozen wallets) Point? It is pretty hard to see how BTC doesn't move higher over time. You can choose to be road kill, or get with the program. SD

All else equal, rising interest rates and a drift down in inflation over time is reasonable (rising real return). Problem is, bigger and bigger rocks keep getting tossed into the global pond, and quicker - making the resultant inflation waves bigger, and compound upon each other. Most recognize that food prices around the globe are going to rise rapidly as Ukrainian crop production falters. But few recognize that global warming is also threatening the globes remaining growing areas with drought, and collapsed production. In most parts of the world, raise both food and cooking oil prices, and you get unstable regime change (Arab Spring). Compounding inflation further. Even if US rates rose 250bp, net of current inflation, bond holders would still have a negative real return. Theory suggests that higher interest rates should lower demand, and that bond holders should be moving to convertibles funding new P&E. That new investment pressuring limited resources and pushing inflation still higher. Our own view is that inflation is going a lot higher, and for a lot longer. Straight FI being a very dumb place to be, unless it is very short duration. SD

Re solar expansion. The issue isn't solar, it is the US approach being advocated. Build a massive green field farm in the middle of nowhere, ship the power out, and hope that nobody bitches. Bribes/lobbying will ensure that most of these will get built, but obviously, management is pretty clueless. In rural areas solar is more about the farmer putting panels on their land, selling the excess power to the grid, and taxpayers providing financing. Farmers save the cash cost of their monthly electric bill, plus get a little additional cash on top. The more organic, and the more take up, the more excess power there is. In urban areas it is more about roof top and glass curtain panels. Rooftop panels supplying the home, and excess power going to local grids. Condo/office blocks replacing portions of existing curtain wall, to supply most of the internal need. SD

A degree is just a union card, no different to a professional designation or a trade certification No card, no access to the magic kingdom, and no access to the prospective mates/spouse you might find within it. Competitive advantage has very little to do with it. This is also 2022, not 1992 - a great many young women routinely add trade certifications to their degrees. Traveling the world, in a gig economy, while adding a RN, and looking over prospective mates - is a common thing. Good on them! SD

Yet the median (dividing line) balance is 1/2 that of the average loan balance. IE: There are a lot of whining people with 50-60K balances, dragging the average up, looking for a bail out. The median $19,281 is no big deal over a working lifetime. It is just the $ investment you made in yourself; everybody around you also made $ investments in you, and have no problem with your expected future ability to pay it back. So .. either the student has no confidence in his/her future self (school was a free party!), or is just trying it on. Mommy/daddy might have given the student the money, but they've chosen not to pay the loan off - either because they're tapped out, or they are sending a message. Either way, a brush with the most unwashed debt collector possible, is a good outcome! The students good start in life is NOT GRADUATING DEBT FREE. It is the degree in his/her head, that results in better than a minimum wage job. You consistently make bad choices, you wear them - welcome to life! SD

The war crime thing enables possibilities When Putin doesn't show It generates an international arrest warrant. It also generates a UN prosecution, and humanitarian possibilities, that can be enforced by UN members and not NATO. Everything from an extraction of Putin himself, through to 'enforced' evacuation routes; by land, air, and sea. Blue helmets shepherding people out under protection of the participating UN armed forces; fire on them, and you lose your artillery &/or missile launch sites. SD

The weapons don't have to be heavier. The Belgorod strike was a proof of concept, lots of fire/smoke but relatively little damage. Were Ukraine serious, it would have also used drones dropping mines; both magnetic and AP - adding choppers just stirs the pot and drive up the loss. Today it was a refinery, tomorrow its your tank park? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-news-chernobyl-belgorod-oil-depot-attack/ https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0654.pdf SD

ESI.TO No div yet; but only a matter of time until they reinstate. Murray Edwards, and FFH have involvement. At the current CAD 3.67, most would expect a cash yield of 8.5-13.0% within 12 months, and capital appreciation of 100% We own a few, at a much lower cost base SD

The intent would seem to be resume assault, but ability suggests otherwise. Tanks/transport don't move with no gas, guns/launchers don't fire with no bullets/shells/missiles, troops don't move when commanders are dead. It's also doubtful that Putin can afford troops coming home, spreading 'tales from the front'. The more troops in the south, the less in the north, and the more exposed the czar becomes. And if that military is not entirely 'on board', the rink opens up a bit. Interesting times. SD

There are also the recent BBC reports of widespread dissention within the ranks, and refusal to fight. The old fodder is being replaced, and 'disciplined' in places where there are no cameras. This is Russia; expect some viscous fire fights, war crimes, and 'eliminations'. SD

The king may order, but it takes many fingers to push the button. Back in the day, press at the time; revealed Trump had ordered a nuclear strike on Qom; that saner heads declined to execute. Russia has saner heads too. Money is the oxygen a regime needs to survive; a plastic bag over its head, and it soon suffocates. Sanctions, currency implosion, etc. are just different bags. One/all works ... and suddenly there is a new king. SD

Russia will be declaring force majeure on its external debt very shortly. Shortly thereafter, all Russian financial transactions will be COD, and liquidity implodes; the Central Bank forced to print unlimited RUB, driving inflation and riots. And if there is no market to suck up those RUB (pay for oil, commodities, etc), Russia becomes an even more dangerous place. Employees/citizens simply convert RUB into crypto as soon as they get them, same as everyone else already does in a South America. Shops take both RUB and crypto, where they have to. All that is required is internet, and that can easily be supplied via satellite. Europe is just being smart - it already has the gas. Putin wants conversion at todays Ruble/USD FX rate - USD 10M for RUB 800M. But if after force majeure the Ruble collapses to 1/3 its current value? delivery of RUB 800M only costs USD 3.33M - and the USD 6.67M gain can be given to European consumers to offset higher gas prices. Economics is such a bitch! We live in interesting times. SD