SharperDingaan

The problem with gaming is that there are always people screwing up the pay-offs, and their 'wins' may well be counter-productive to yours. Trying for a 'golden-age' measured by the level of exchange indexes, by risking levels of unemployment and poverty on par with the 1929 Great Depression, is just stupid. You send us to hell, we're taking you with us; in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Nobody has to roll over maturing US T-Bills, there are a great many alternatives, and there is now a growing need to spread the risk. The US Fed may well be raising rates because it is already hitting a debt-wall, that is only avoidable .... so long as USD remains the dominant reserve currency. Reduce these roll overs in a big way ... and the game changes. Negatively target the indexes to give it a nudge .... The way out is to end it as soon as possible. SD

Canada (and the world) have begun to respond to Trumps attacks via promotion of 'buy local'; essentially, anything that is a US import is toxic. One of the consequences is declining sales at franchisee's that hire local, rent local, buy local (for the most part) ... that are owned by American franchisers; franchiser branding has made them toxic, and global Q1 2024 international sales are likely to take a hit. Within Canada there are quite a few of these franchisees, they collectively add quite a bit of economic activity, and one of the circulating solutions is 'soft nationalisation'. A national government collects the franchisee payments, and temporarily holds them in trust until the tariffs thing is resolved. Franchisee contracts are protected under 'force majeure' provisions, they are now able to brand as 'local' to mitigate disruption and maintain their economic activity ... and the franchiser (primarily US) is now captive to tariff resolution. Share prices drop like a rock, indexes drop, and the more that others follow ... the worse it gets. All hail the orange boy! Tech is particularly vulnerable, there are ready alternatives for most tech things, and few are likely to cry if Elon and the 'magnificent 7' companies are simultaneously targeted by US trade partners. Priced at perfection, quite a few would see a hard sell off on the DOW/NASDAQ as both a desirable thing, and a future buying opportunity. Again, all hail the orange boy! Trump throws up tariffs, the rest of the world attacks the level of the DOW/NASDAQ .... and shorts on the way down. Inside trading around the sale of meme coin, offset against inside trading around index shorts; not too many are likely to disagree with the 'market' solution. We live in interesting times. SD

The realities are that the US will remain the major consumer for at least the next decade or so, and there are multiple legal ways by which to offset the tariff exposure. There are also a lot of 'other' highly profitable ways by which to exploit the tariffs .... so tariff baby, tariff! Much as it was during prohibition days, there is no reason why the mid-western states should not continue to get their supply, and we all share in the wealth https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/oil-smuggling-isnt-easy-but-despite-obstacles-refiners-are-minting-1-billion-every-day/118138885 SD

The gist is true, but the article really understates the conservative sh1te show; the conservative leader was minimising public appearances when this pole was done, had he been making more, it may well have been a lot worse. Today he is being routinely satired on Canada's version of Saturday Night Live, not in a good way, and we haven't even gotten into the 'tiny PP' (Pierre Poilievre) jokes yet. It really comes down to which of the choices is best able to push back on Trump, and keep Canadians employed. PP isn't high on the list. SD

Most opine that Trump wants to renegotiate trade agreements that do not expire until 2036. Create panic and fear, to bring the opponents to the table, .... and make the pounding stop. Versus immediate filing for compensation payments, please f*** *** until 2030 or so, and we drop the legal (at that time) if you're reasonable In the meantime ... bench clear for kicks, punch back as hard as you get hit, and keep punching until time-out gets called. Not the way it's supposed to go! The nice thing with competitive FX devaluation is that the orange man becomes a tar baby, standing on quicksand; the more chaos he creates, the sooner he sinks, and drowns. Rhetoric only works so long as nobody calls it, and it's the hundreds of thousands laid off ... who will be calling the bluff. The US is also deporting the illegals who would otherwise be the labour required; can't expand production/housing when there's nobody to do the work/build Executive orders are easy! actually turning the ship of state within any reasonable time frame? .... not so much ... no matter how many people you fire in the interim. It's also a big assumption that allies would want the tariffs to end early; schoolyards can bully as well ... and if it's working on the bully, why give up the leverage .... SD

Just as an indication of how cheap ... The latest 1PNPV10 is 2,253; 2PNPV10 is 3,092. Dated 09/30 numbers: Deduct 137 for working cap. Deduct 697 for non current liabilities, October 30 share count of 74.5. 1PNPV10 EV/Share is roughly CAD 19.05, closing share price today was CAD 7.52. Even if the convertible was at a ultra-conservative 80% of the 1PNPV10 EV/Share (ie: CAD 15.25), the conversion price would be > 2.0 the current price. Were the more normal 2PNPV10 EV/Share used as the base, the conversion price would be > 3.2 the current price. What do think happens to the current share price, should 5-10% of the existing share count be sold via a bought convertible; valuing the converted shares at north of CAD 15.00 Hence, the AimCo attraction. SD

The conservative candidate continues to experience a very material negative bounce in the polls; they are still ahead, but a clear majority is now very iffy; high probability of a subsequent leader replacement, and another minority government. AimCo (Alberta Pension Plan) has just culled their NY and Singapore offices, and opened a new position in OBE; the previous AimCo board was fired by Alberta's premier, and Mr Harper (prior conservative prime minister) is well connected with both. Wouldn't be surprising to see a new pipeline (as a mega project) financed primarily by Canada's federal government, the nations pension funds, and prepaid commitments by the WCSB heavy oil producers; OBE amongst them, and their contribution financed via a private placement convertible split between AimCo and another. OBE's growth is well ahead of schedule, and could well go beyond the target 50,000 boe/d; but they can expect to start encountering egress limitations in 2026/27. While OBE is dirt cheap, with the low share count, the only way you're getting anything in scale is via a bought deal. SD

Not a fan of gold while BTC is still low on the S curve; once BTC is high on the 'mature' portion of the S curve, we will probably think differently as Gold will be more competitive ... but many years away yet. We continue to hold/grow OBE as our main WCSB holding, particularly as production is getting heavier and egress is likely to continue improving. Ultimately it will end up with one of the big producers and become a dividend stream for us. Of course, there is not a lot of point to all this if Trump screws things up .... hence we need to protect ourselves. SD

Assume that the US imposes tariffs on Canadian exports. US consumers would pay more for the product and Canadian exporters would sell less of it at the higher price. Canadian exporters would also lay off workers, as there is now less work. Assume Canada responds with matching $ for $ tariffs, Canadian consumers would pay more for the US product and US exporters would sell less of it as the higher price. US exporters would lay off workers, as there is now less work. Both countries experience higher consumer prices, and higher unemployment. IF there are COMPARABLE, immediate and cheaper local substitutes for the import, it’s a win. If NOT, it’s a loss. Textbook economics. What if the exporter’s currency ALSO devalues? CAD devalues 25% to offset the 25% tariff, US consumers now pay the SAME for the product and Canadian exporters sell the SAME as they used to at this now higher price. Canadian consumers pay EVEN MORE for the US product and US exporters sell EVEN less of it as the higher CaD price. What if ALL the exporter’s now similarly devalue in response to the tariff? (CAD, EU, ASIA, BRICs, etc) and by about the same %? As cross-FX rates between the exporters will remain largely the same (carousel effect), there is little impact on trade between them; not so much for the US, which now ain't selling squat outside of the US along with record unemployment and inflation …. eventually the US devalues as well, and the cycle repeats. So …. thoughts as to how do people can protect themselves? Ever the heretic .... we look to the BTC-ETF ... and producers exporting essential product priced in USD. BTC-CAD benefiting BOTH from accelerating BTC adoption (raising the base price of BTC) AND the ongoing devaluation of CAD. Everyone with similar BTC-Domestic Currency ETFs, outside of the US similarly benefiting (raising the base price of BTC). And the more US disruption the more we all benefit ..... the right-hand leg of a long straddle. We also prefer oil/gas as it is priced primarily in USD, and can be sold anywhere, not just to the US. And similarly, the more US disruption the more we benefit .... the left-hand leg of a long straddle. The main risk is the orange man going silent ... pretty sure that ain't really much of a risk! SD

Your overall approach is right, but if you are not a tech bro you would do better to look elsewhere than the memecoin (there is a reason as to why they are called sh1tecoin!). As a tech bro, tech is your bread and butter, and this is simply an extension of that. A tech bro's 'return' is industry employment at progressively higher compensation, augmented by the bro's knowledge of the crypto funding side, alongside the bro's technical knowledge/experience in tech. Buying into the air-drops may produce a gain, but after the multiple fees paid on the way to getting to cash .. it's much like a betting app; lot of 'activity' ... but no net cash out. As a investor; the return is entirely in selling sardines at high prices, repurchasing at lower prices, and taking the cash difference off the table. Hence, you are better served via a BTC-ETF with a deep market (Blackrock, Fidelity, etc.) that is trading on a regulated exchange. Your time is spent on how you think adoption will go, and assessing whether or not the current market is offering a timing opportunity. Everybody pays a tuition cost. Invest maybe $500, move it around for experience purposes, and see how the various apps work. Invest up to $1,000 between 2 shitecoin, learn from the experience, and assume you lose the entire $1,500 investment. Then, make some decisions. To do well, you don't need to be an 'expert'; you just need to be more knowledgeable around crypto than Joe/Jill Sixpack. It is not a high bar, but as in high-jump/pole-vault the bar rises as time goes by. Good luck! SD

Everybody says they understand the Sigmoid Curve (S Curve).... but few actually 'apply' it. Born of the tech community and jealously guarded as ours, BTC spread quickly, but only within the small community, and only amongst the largely naive. However; tech bro's ain't finance bro's, and we got the blow-outs of the early NFT's, tokens vs securities, the wild-west excesses, etc. BTC from zero to it's 2018 peak at around USD 14K, but with minimal (non tech) retail involvement, and behaviour that really tanked the prospects for wider adoption. BTC moved higher primarily because of the halving process. 2018 through 2022 the monetary authorities took over (adults in the room), again it spread quickly, but again only within the small community. But this time .. intense research into monetary usage, infrastructure build out (derivatives, regulation, etc.) and ultimately a significant CBDC ... rolling out with eYuan at the Beijing Olympics. BTC from USD 14K to the 2021/2022 peaks of USD 60K, continuing minimal (non tech) retail involvement, and tech community friction. BTC higher primarily because of CB involvement. 2024 through 2025 YTD financial sector adoption has begun to take over, again it is spreading quickly but again only within financial services. But this time .. it's a roll-out into financial usage (5% investment allocation, BTC-ETF, central bank/state treasury BTC reserves, etc.). BTC from USD 60K to the 2025 YTD peak of USD 109K, early mass (non tech) retail involvement, and the tech community essentially contractors doing implementation. BTC higher primarily because of advancing roll-out, halving, and regulatory reform. Entry into the beginning of the asymptotic portion of the S curve. Average Joe/Jill six-pack continues to have no clue; the more financially literate are adopting the BTC-ETF as the trading sardine, but have little idea (or interest) in the mechanics. The .com era all over again !!!, with the BTC-ETF as the common man's momentum vehicle of choice. Hard not to get excited at the opportunity Its also only the younger average Joe six-packs that are involved; it ain't the mom's/dad's and it ain't the old folks. However it is also the time of the greatest wealth transfer in history; as the wealth moves from the old to the young, retail adoption accelerates. It accelerates faster still ... when investment in a BTC-ETF is increasingly seen as a viable way by which to pay off a mortgage, decades earlier So when you hear the BTC price projections of USD 150-200K by the end of 2025? ... it's less about the if, and more about the when. Add to it, that it'll be a bumpy road, highly conducive to swing-trades; and that as the multiple verified stories of wealth creation come out ... FOMO will begin to feed into the price Some folks are going to become very wealthy. COBF members might want to give crypto a little more attention, so that those folks include you. SD

Dow Futures down 550 points+, Nasdaq Futures down 500 points+ , S&P Futures down 100 points+ , WTI up 1.52. C'mon Orange Boy ... lets go for a 1,000!, the market is speaking! https://www.cnbc.com/index-futures/ SD

Better to call the bluff and keep the balls on the flame, as prairie oysters taste a lot better roasted. Fuck with us, and you ain't ever going to try it again SD

Trump has burnt a lot of political capital to do this, and cannot afford an extended period of counter tariffs. 300,000 Michigan auto workers will be laid-off within 2 weeks. More recent numbers put the total number of US autoworkers at 990,000; then add the job losses in the myriad other industries that are also being affected. Dec 2024, there were 6.9 M people unemployed in the US ... by the end of March it could well be 8.5 M+ (up 20%+, in two months). https://www.bridgemi.com/business-watch/numbers-how-many-uaw-members-michigan-how-much-would-strike-cost https://www.statista.com/statistics/574197/leading-us-states-in-terms-of-automotive-industry-employement/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNEMPLOY/ The USCMA became effective July 2020, and runs through July 2036. Try as he might; Trump can't force either Canada or Mexico to re-negotiate early, and Trump will be gone by 2029. Lot of strutting, but a melting ice cube. Canada leads, everyone else follows, and very shortly thereafter almost everything the US makes is under some kind of tariff. The US ain't selling squat abroad, and everyone else is selling between themselves at no tariff. Deporting illegals doesn't reduce the unemployment rate either, as they aren't registered, it just makes it harder to find labour willing to accept the poor pay. Orange crush. It is a simple matter to load WCS at market price onto tankers, then resell the cargo to west coast refiners via flags that are tariff free. The only limitation is the capacity of the pipe, and the ability of oil-trains to supplement the tide-water egress. Cushing inventory is nominal, Alberta gets world price on the same volume, the refiner pays world price on the same volume, and the tax man gets ... nothing. Complements to Ari Onassis As in hockey; punch back hard, keep punching, and pretty soon there's a pile on, and penalties. Keep raising the heat ... and ice cubes quickly turn into puddles SD

Present estimates are that it will take about 10 days for Windsor and Detroit to shut down. Probably a lot shorter for the US/Mexican plants. Canadian unemployment for Feb is expected to jump by 250K in Ontario alone; at 10x the size of Canada, US losses will be approaching 2.5M. Higher still as Trump reacts to getting punched. SD