SharperDingaan

Forever the heretic ..... The US innovates, it does it very well, but it has slept on its laurels for a very long time. The big difference is that now the dragon has woken up, it's breaking the furniture, and years of dammed up innovation are now flowing downstream. It's just super disruptive as old world orders are swept away, new ones established, and there is widespread change. Not a bad thing, and if you are a youth ... this is your future; grab it with both hands, and SQUEEZE! Canada should be a big beneficiary; but only if we continue to play rough hockey, we give as much as we get, and we move with the times. It's not the 1980's anymore it's 2025, and that hot guy/gal back then is now claiming pension, as the times have moved on! Expect lots of volatility, lots of broken teeth/arms, and CAD to fall like a brick .... but a decade from now? CAD approaching parity. Expect restructured inter-provincial trade barriers, and material trade/energy corridors flowing east/west/north not that dissimilar to the EU. New grid and pipe running south, joint NATO development of coastal/arctic waters, tighter and more integrated borders. M&A and infrastructure opportunities, not that different to when highways were being built back in the day; it's not just the US waking up. Back in the day, draft-dodgers were able to flee to Canada; today, that now tighter border is going to be well spent money turning a lot of 'illegals' back. Mystery as to what happens with those who if turned back to the US, would be deported back to 'where they came from', and probable death (ie: Indian Sikh, or Chinese opposition). Not sure that Canada is in the murdering business. Lots of opportunities .... too little time! SD

Granted it's funny as hell, but step back a bit .... it's hard to imagine that Musk's hands aren't all over this, and that friends aren't intentionally pushing BTC higher. Most would be cautious if they thought a Goldman Sachs was on the other side of their trade, and the same should apply here. Enjoy the ride, but keep a sharp eye on the number of digits you have SD

Economic theory just offers a model; it doesn't recognise time value, and it doesn't have the provable certainty of empirical science. If it takes two years for the global industry to do a weighted average CR of 100, one then needs to discount that at some discount rate. If your CAGR was just 5%, you will be 'off' by at least 10% (1.05^2), and the global industry would look it is incurring a structural 10%+ loss every year. NA may be up, Asia flat, and Europe down .... but overall ? it's a 10% loss simply because of the need to recognise time value. SD

The more rapidly that BTC protocol climbs the adoption curve the better; the meme sh1te is just Trumps base being pulled into the show ... to get a taste of the payoffs, and push the protocol further. Entertainment .... but also very smart. Every state in the US will start buying BTC as soon as the relevant executive order is signed; at their maximum weighting. With the elephants stomping around, it's not place for newbies. SD

Couple of other things to consider ...... Most of the world's underground activity relies on physical USD cash being available; the problem is that cash wears out with use, it's bulky in quantity, everybody is trying to steal it, and you're reliant upon the US Federal Reserve continuing to print more of it. There is a cost to laundering it, and the more you have the harder it is to hide. At scale, most everything about this is utter sh1te! But Lenny, ... if all we have to do is exchange our cash stash on hand, for this token .... no questions asked! Trillions upon trillions flow into this token, with success all but assured .... and when individual states can also buy the token as investments, but don't have to sell as its value goes up ..... they aren't going to be too aggressive in attempting to kill the golden goose. Of course the issuer can track the movement, but it's really no different to the tracking of BTC today. Gotta love BTC protocol! Pay your annual 2% to the Fed, and we'll leave you alone; and really no different to the Vatican paying for protection against its priceless treasures being stolen. And all .... at a lot cheaper than today's security and laundry costs. America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates. Suck a good chunk of the illegal money out of China, and trade negotiation gets a whole lot more interesting. Musk put the Tesla 'Rocket Man' into space as a payload hauling 'proof of concept'. Maybe he also puts the 'Orange Man' into cyberspace, via a 'meme' that starts it all? .... if it works out. SD

It's just a test of concept; if the long-term adoption proves out as everybody hopes, it's coming back in a re-branded form. Think of a countries currency as a meme, that is exchangeable against it's strategic BTC reserves. The meme being used to settle global trade payments, and the exchange rate set at an arbitrary 1,000 meme: to 1 BTC in the US Strategic Reserve. What have you just done ? Replaced the USD as the globes reserve currency. Turned the USD meme into an inflation proof hard currency, not that dissimilar to the old gold standard. Multiplied the effective quantity of your BTC reserve by 1,000; and removed the need for a CBDC with its privacy and banking issues. Very smart, very elegant ..... if the masses actually adopt it. Hence, try it out via a test of concept. SD

Tuesday isn't either SD

Some added detail. It's hardly surprising that Alberta is so pissed; and frankly, good on them ... Per another board: https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=601428&pt=msg&mid=25349177 Comments on Danielle Smith and "Team Canada"- An Alberta Viewpoint. I may no longer be in politics, but some issues are too important to stay silent on. Danielle Smith is taking a strong stand against Ottawa’s reckless proposal to ban Alberta’s energy exports. I strongly support her efforts, and I hope you will too. For years, Alberta has been let down by Ottawa and by provinces that put up roadblocks to getting our resources to market. Now, federal politicians are floating the idea of banning Alberta’s energy exports entirely. Danielle has been clear: Alberta will not stand for policies that threaten our economy and livelihoods. Some suggest we need a “Team Canada” approach. That idea might carry more weight if there had ever been a Team Canada working to support Alberta in the past. Unfortunately, history tells a very different story: Where was “Team Canada” when Northern Gateway was vetoed in 2016, losing us 525,000 barrels per day in export capacity? Instead of addressing the court’s requirements for Indigenous consultation, the federal government killed the project outright and banned tankers on the northwest coast. Where was “Team Canada” when Energy East was cancelled in 2017? Quebec and Ontario imposed unnecessary, duplicative reviews, creating endless regulatory uncertainty. Ottawa offered no support, and the project was lost, along with the chance to ship 1 million barrels per day to the East Coast. Where was “Team Canada” when provinces like British Columbia blocked pipelines? B.C. imposed unconstitutional conditions on Trans Mountain, which the courts struck down in 2019. Before that, in 2018, they tried to restrict diluted bitumen shipments, threatening Alberta’s economy and delaying progress. And where is “Team Canada” now? Ottawa has imposed Bill C-69, the “No More Pipelines” Act, and an unconstitutional production cap. They’re introducing electricity regulations that harm Alberta’s competitiveness and passing laws like Bill C-59 that silence the voices supporting Alberta’s energy. So forgive Albertans if we’re skeptical of a federal “Team Canada” approach that seems designed to landlock our resources and harm our economy. Maybe if there had been real support in the past, we wouldn’t be in this position now. Danielle Smith is fighting to protect Alberta’s oil and gas industry from Ottawa’s latest reckless idea—an export ban on Alberta energy. She’s fighting for your jobs, your community, and Alberta’s future. This is about defending Alberta’s place in Canada and ensuring we have the freedom to develop our resources, create jobs, and grow our economy. Sincerely, Hon. Sonya Savage, KC Former Minister of Energy SD

Federal law only prevails at the national border (ie: an export out of Canada); whereas everywhere within a province, or between provinces, it is a provincial jurisdiction. A complication; is that oil/gas produced in Alberta, but sold at BC tide-water, is a matter between BC/Ottawa (where it leaves Canada) and not Alberta/Ottawa (where it is produced in Canada). Ottawa can impose a tax; but not actually stop the flow, unless the province with the egress also agrees to it. The Albertan premier deserves huge kudos for NOT caving to the Team Canada pressure. The straight-forward solution is a (tariff offsetting) federal export tax on US bound oil/gas, plus the proceeds from a modified carbon tax, funding new pipe going east, west, and north under a guarantee from the rest of Canada. Confederation type guarantee; no bull-shit, no veto's, no hostage taking via environmental assessments, etc, etc. The country building of national pipe, being no different to the country building of a CP/CN rail, the Trans-Canada Highway, or an Air Canada, etc. Inter-provincial trade barriers are by far, the worst trade impediments Canada has; hence it's a tough nut to crack, you need hard ass premiers, and Canada first. No holds barred blunt conversation taking place behind the barn. As in most family discussions, they're not that far apart, but it's very much play nice, or cave to the enemy (Trump). Your choice. SD

My own view is that it's either a Conservative/NDP minority, with the Conservatives on top, and the Liberals/Bloc in opposition; or a NDP/Liberal minority with the NDP on top, and the Conservatives/Bloc in opposition. Of the two; the NDP/Liberal (Singh/Carney) being the preferred combination. Back in the day, the Conservatives pissed off Atlantic Canada so much; that the response was vote 'Anyone But Conservative' (ABC). It resulted in a total shut-out for the Conservatives across Atlantic Canada. Just as there was incredible country-wide resentment with Trudeau, as per the ubiquitous F*** T****** sticker; there is a similar distrust of Poilievre, and a similar ABC response. While Trudeau was PM it wasn't visible (as Trudeau was disliked more than Poilievre), but with Trudeau now gone .... Poilievre is a lightning rod, and it's storming outside. It isn't possible to win a majority in Canada without at least either Ontario or Quebec also voting in a majority of Conservative candidates. Hard to see that occurring while Poilievre remains as the Conservative leader. Not that different to Harris having to take over from Biden during the recent US election. But unlike the US, this is much more likely to be decided upon based on leadership/experience/push-back, than populist rhetoric. SD

Carney vs Poilievre is no contest, Poilievre loses; hence the current conservative political framing around Carney being an 'elitist', and not 'one of us'. The man comes from Fort Smith and Edmonton, hardly elitist!; yet was good enough to compete against the best in the world, at their own game, and win .. repeatedly (but 'no', can't have that, that's elitist!). Versus Poilievre who is the 5th consecutive leadership replacement in TEN YEARS of REPEATEDLY failing to even make a minority government. Carney also plays the goalie in ice hockey, and is no stranger to forwards taking shots and adroit stick handling; Poilievre .... not so much. Should Carney actually be the Liberal choice, there is a distinct possibility that Canada ends up with another minority government, and not a majority. Despite the current 20%+ lead, the conservatives would have blown it, AGAIN; and the insurance policy will get cashed in. No political preference. We just want good governance, and experienced leadership that can push back against Trump. The colour of their party is pretty irrelevant. SD

I hear you ! ..... Agreed that long term, there needs to be wide-spread change across North America, and it will not happen in the various fiefdoms without a lot of furniture getting broken. As in all rough hockey and team development; everyone has to go through the forming, storming, norming and performing stages. It isn't pleasant, bullying is part of the process, and everyone has to learn how to bite back. The good news is that material change does occur, it happens quickly, and with everyone either on the same page or road kill. Short term, one can expect it to get very ugly and very fast; routine bench clearings at the drop of a stick, injuries everywhere, strong coaching, and a lot of broken teeth. Hence the need to be favouring cash, and hedging wherever practical; so as to be able to buy back later once the blood has frozen to the ice. Back in the day it took Pearl Harbour to wake the Americans up to the global threats they were facing, and it happened again with 9/11; this time around it's 'us' getting woken up. Ultimately it was good thing .... but there was a lot of damage in the getting there. Sometimes the dust-up behind the barn to 'clear the air', is not a bad thing; medics and dentists can do amazing things, but it's best to be out of the elephants way. SD

Bought my first shares in FFH way back when SAC was trying to put FFH under. Everything about it was just flat out wrong; and super pissed about it, I bought some shares cheap, and found COBF. Crip, Dazel, and a few others were the main posters at the time ... and I learnt at the feet of the many masters. Hopefully; I gave back as much as I learnt! We haven't been in FFH for many years, but periodically visit as dividend, climate change, and short attack (MW) opportunities present. Had CS not blown up, and the BTC-ETF not become a 'thing', we would probably be using FFH as one of our 'near' cash equivalents FFH is a great learning experience, but all fledglings eventually need to leave the nest and do their own thing. Today, we're good enough at risk management that we can comfortably afford the higher risks that we take, and earn that higher 'Sharpe' ratio. There's a reason for the 'Sharper' in SharperDingaan! Good luck to all. SD

'Immigration' has always been used as a wedge towards obtaining power. The more one can keep the different communities 'separate', and the less face-to-face 'mixing' in everyday life, the more effectively it can be weaponized; in some places, it's just easier to manipulate than in others. Millions of people, across factory floors and offices, work alongside immigrants every day .. with little issue; but oddly, that's seldom if ever mentioned The reality is that within Europe there are just too many people, in too small a place, hence everything has to be very 'controlled'. If that isn't for you, then just visit, as you really need to either live or invest elsewhere. SD

Just to throw out some numbers ..... for simplicity assume just one seller, and one US buyer refining Alberta crude. No tariffs. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60 world price; seller gets USD 6,000, refiner pays USD 6,000. > US 25% tariff. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 6,000, tariff collector gets USD 1,500 (25%), refiner pays USD 7,500. US consumer pays more. But the refiner can only pay USD 6,000 ...... > US 25% tariff. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 4,800, tariff collector gets USD 1,200 (25%), refiner pays USD 6,000. Producer gets 12% less revenue on the same 100 bbl sold. Need a solution .... Cut US bound production to 80 bbls, sold at a higher price. Sell the remaining 20 bbls to Asia from BC tidewater. > US 25% tariff. 80 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 4,800, tariff collector gets USD 1,200 (25%), refiner pays USD 6,000. US consumer pays more as the refiners cost is now USD 75/bbl, and in the short-term the refiner can't refine crude from anywhere else. > No US 25% tariff. 20 bbl sold to Asia @ USD 60; seller gets USD 1,200. Producer gets a total of USD 6.000 (4,800 + 1,200) on the 100 bbl sold. As long as the new west coast pipe and rail has the capacity; the only folks getting hurt here are the US consumer, and it is the US tariff collector that has their money. And if that BC tidewater buyer is US tariff exempt ..... they merely sail a tanker down the west coast, and sell the crude to the refiner at a very profitable USD 75/bbl less costs. The way out is new and big pipe going south. Drop the tariffs, double production, spread the costs over a bigger base, and everybody wins. SD