Blugolds

First mentioned by Greenspan and later the title of Shillers book, if these meme coins arent the epitome of Irrational Exuberance....I honestly dont know what is. I'm hearing avg joe's talking about Trump Coin in the checkout, I've seen Lyft drivers trading in their car on their phone... A trump coin, a JD vance coin..and now a Melania coin...you cant make this stuff up, this is absolute insanity From Shillers book: "Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases, and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly by envy of others' successes and partly through a gamblers' excitement"

Also important to remember that Buffetts #1 priority is to protect the base, protect the shareholders..hindsight is 20/20 now re covid but at the time you’ll remember that there were daily tally’s and updates regarding fatalities, Ackman was crying on MNSBC telling the gov to shutdown to protect his dad, and they were parking Hospital ships in the NY harbor for extra beds..hindsight says that was a crazy overreaction and everyone should have been buying hand over fist…but AT THE TIME it was anybody’s guess as to how bad this would be and what would be the result, and when we would get control of it, the entire world was in chaos, every country. At least to me, it seems reasonable that someone who’s primary objective is to protect the base, shareholders money and remain the “Fortress” that is BRK would come out of the other side looking like they behaved “too conservatively” that is the luxury we have of coming out the other side relatively unscathed, to be able to say hey, the old man goofed…vs he hit it out of the park and made bank, you’ll probably never be able to say that about BRK, hey they took advantage of the opportunity, took the gamble and it paid off, made the intelligent bet when everyone else (the entire world) predicted doom and gloom and are richer for it. BRK goal is respectable returns while mitigating against significant loss of capital so by its very nature it will never ever make the sexy bet/call and as a shareholder you’ve gotta expect that and be Ok with it. If you’re primary goal is remain the fortress and protect shareholders from extreme loss of capital, it 100% logical that you would behave as Buffett did when the entire world is in chaos, there is no end in sight and it still hasn’t played out as to how bad it will be and how significant the impact will be. He errors on the side of caution and doesn’t swing for the fences if there is even 1% that it will be a detrimental blow to BRK. Didnt know the fed would be as aggressive as it was, it could have also been another GFC or worse and then people would have been saying why was he such a shmuck leaving so much exposure for BRK. Just playing devils advocate here, but it’s easy to forget what the viewpoint AT THE TIME was compared to what we know now and its easy to Monday morning QB that today. Do I wish he would have been a little less conservative and taken advantage of opportunities…yes, but I also understand why he didnt and Im ok with it.

I still come back to this push for “going green” with the last administration, obviously that is probably put on the back burner for now, but the other aspects of needing tremendous amounts of energy are still there. Elon has the ear of POTUS and he is gonna push for more tech in the country (my opinion) and especially if the crypto grifters have anything to do with it, we need tons of energy and the only logical way to produce that cost effective is Nuclear. I dont think I have ever heard nuclear nuclear nuclear being touted as much as I have in the past several months and I think that a good thing for BHE as they have already been in talks about it and were set up and ready to go with plans to produce mini reactors etc in partnership with Gates. BHE is an industry leader, Greg is one of if not the best in the energy space and they have a fat a juicy bankroll for assurances and the ability to move quickly if they get the green light. I still think further down the road 5-10-15 yrs BHE will be the golden goose of BRK that is where I see the most potential, solid stable returns on large amounts of invested capital. Takes a lot of pressure off finding creative ways to invest the money, just run the energy business intelligently, make sure ROIC is decent etc. At least that is a future I can imagine, I struggle imagining a future that looks much like we’ve seen over the past several decades, the culture will remain intact as that is WB primary concern, for shareholders/partners..but finding elephants and getting the call because its WB I dont think continues in the same fashion.

I've never understood the "we cant have their side pack the court, so we'll pack it with our side". If you wanted true balance, wouldn't you want equal representation on the court? Both left and right represented, men, women, minorities, whites...wouldnt that be optimal? I dont think a right packed court or a left packed court is the ideal balance. If there are 9 justices on the court you would think they would want 4 justices always from both left and right, when those positions open, they are filled from their respective "sides" regardless of the administration...then the 9th justice can be appointed based on administration in place when the opening occurs...something like that...would fix this silly behavior of "timing" and trying to pack with your "team". Would never happen because as much as each side hates the opportunity for the "other" side to pack in their favor, they also dont want to give up the ability for them to do it themselves eventually. She is blindfolded because justice is unbiased. Lady Justice holds scales to represent the impartiality of the court’s decisions. Everyone wants Lady Justice to be blindfolded...but the blindfold to be diaphanous.

People sell Whole life insurance policies as "investments" every day too.. "if you sell it, they will come"

True, "young" is subjective, but the challenge is that by the time you have a proven track record managing "real" amounts of money you're probably in that "strange definition of young"!

Basically yes, you get a "stepped up cost basis", the CB becomes the value at the time of death, gains after that, if sold will incur taxes. IE. Tom buys BRK 20 years ago with cost basis of $50, Tom dies today with BRK @ $460, shares transfer to Tom's son, Son's new cost basis on those inherited shares is $460, no tax owed. If Tom sells shares for $500 he pays tax on $40 gain. There is a difference between inheritance tax and estate tax. There is a dollar limit to this, and some states have taxes independent of federal (so even if you are below the threshold for federal taxes your state may want a cut) , however many of these can be avoided by putting assets in a trust. Generally for every instance Uncle Sam wants to stick his hand in your pocket with regard to large sums of money outside of W2 income, he also gives you a way to avoid it, because generally the people in those situations either create the laws or have enough money to influence those who do, and they can afford to pay legal experts to ensure they take advantage of every way out. Im not taking a political position with that statement, its just the rules of a game, since the rules dont seem to change significantly, the best you can do is learn the rules and/or pay those who play well to be on your team if you want to win.

BRK FRFH CNSWF COST META GOOGL IVV NTDOY JOE BRK and FRFH make up vast majority and and in taxable accounts with significant gains, SWANs, would trim some of the other names but dont want to pay tax without seeing a better deal to deploy. Also about 10% cash.

Pizza has one of the best margins of any food/restaurant business..COGS of say 20% with gross profits of 80% assuming you arent talking about franchise since you said small business, but Pizza can be very lucrative if you have a good product and a good reputation. My grandfather owned a pizza business that did very very well and I knew a guy who had a small storefront in a college town that sold by the slice and had a great business, 90% of his sales probably came between the hours of 11-2am (bar close) but there was always a line out the door. Sold 1 kind of pizza and had one other kid that worked with him, he just stood at the till and took in piles of cash. Mac and cheese pizza was the go-to so he didnt even have the high meat costs! Just cheese and noodles on the top of thin crust, but that gooey slice got the line out the door every night he never even closed the till for hours, just cash hand over fist for hours. Probably not great if you want to be a hands off owner like you said, you're right its more of a job, and I dont like food businesses in general but if I DID, you could do a lot worse than pizza, if you have a good location that would be toward the top of my list actually. Keep the menu simple, flour, sauce is cheap and homemade, main variable costs are cheese and meat assuming you want quality and if you source correctly and make decent relationships with local butchers to produce your sausage recipe it somewhat insulates you from major fluctuations. If you wanna talk about plain cheese pizza 16" you can get your costs to about a buck on a 16" and sell for $10 thats a pretty sexy margin, if you're talking chicago style deep dish then you're gonna be on the lower end, but for thin crust NY style pizza with quality cheese and sausage or pepperoni you're gonna be around that 80% gross mainly from the cheese and meat options, soda is high margin, employees are cheap assuming you have a younger workforce.

Amazing how loss can be quelled the majority of time day to day, but true love/loss never goes away, its always lurking there, just below the surface, waiting, ready to surprise you from a song, a smell, a memory. 2020 and 2021 I lost the two most important people in my life, within 6 mo of each other, first my mom, unexpectedly and quick. We never discussed finances, she didnt have anything anyway and I was her only son. Next was my grandpa, who also lived a pretty simple life but had been successful in business when I was born, since Mom was gone her share passed to me. My Uncle, Aunt and I divided up the assets from my grandfather who passed at 91. The sums we are talking about would be fairly insignificant to anyone reading this, it didnt make that much difference to me monetarily, I was much more concerned about getting small trinkets that reminded me of way back when (i grew up living with my grandparents). To my Aunt and Uncle, the monetary value was all that mattered and they were ruthless! At times there was screaming, it was brutal and I could help but think that my grandfather would have had nothing to do with it, he would have been ashamed at their behavior. I ended up playing mediator despite a 30yr age difference and took the strategy of just trying to keep the piece, even if it meant I supplemented from my share, I had gotten what I wanted, some old tools to hand on the wall and an Eagle statue from the dining room. My point is, Warren’s advice to have these discussions BEFORE the emotions take over is fantastic advice, I think a lot of what I had to watch could have been avoided if everything was very clear rather than “share and share alike”. As other posters already commented, the LAST thing you want to deal with when your world has fallen apart is confrontation with those who are supposed to be support and partners processing grief. Ive obviously never met WB, but like many here have the utmost admiration for him and have benefited from his ability and generosity sharing wisdom. I too feel the difficulty reading his letter, we all know that none of us get outta this alive, but that reality is still tough, Warren knows it too and he’s facing it with dignity and class right to the end. I cant help but stand, clapping for an encore. The show is coming to an end, the lights in the auditorium are dimming, but I dont wanna go home. Was tough to see the headlines when Charlie passed, but we still had Warren. When both are gone the finality of it will be difficult. I hope that the letter is just being responsible and preparation as planned, but my gut tells me he might sense the ride is coming to an end.

I’ve seen it suggested to create an alternative email that is just for your investment accounts, dont put it on anything else. I dont know if that will help or not but it cant hurt. I’m also generally careful about logging in on unknown networks, although it can be tricky if you want to make a trade outside of home or office. I try to lock down everything that I can as much as I can, I had some card fraud a year or so ago, enough for them to offer me credit tracking/reporting for free, and frozen at the big three, so all my accounts are max protected that they can be that way, I dont care if they want multiple things and it takes me an extra second to log in, all credit reports are locked down so nothing can be opened, outside of limited unknown network usage and trusting the brokerage safeties in place, I dont know what else is possible to make it more secure, I’m looking forward to hearing what others have to offer

American

A little different though, rather than a proxy war, Germany IS a member of NATO. I think Putin went into Ukraine because he knew he could without much issue, sure US gives Ukraine some token help but no real game changer help, not stopping Russia, just making it slightly more inconvenient. That would be totally different if Putin attempted the same with a NATO country. US has an embassy in Ukraine but no bases, the US has several bases in Germany and before the Germans had anything to worry about Putin would have had to already have made a significant push West through countries with increased US presence and NATO countries, including Poland. https://www.army.mil/article/265027/army_establishes_permanent_garrison_in_poland Putin doesnt get further than Ukraine. Trump is all talk about bombing Moscow, that is ridiculous and no way he told Putin that. Its a talking point to portray strength to voters, Putin knows he wouldnt do it because it would be the start of WWIII and to even suggest it is irresponsible IMO, just like if Putin threatened to bomb Washington, to even mention it is irresponsible IMO. Just like Putins threats to use "tactical Nukes". The truth is, people may not really like Putins invasion of Ukraine but he is more willing to sacrifice troops to do it than anybody else is to stop him, so he gets a pass, the US gives some token defense tools but nothing that makes a significant difference in the battle because its not worth escalation. The juice isnt worth the squeeze, unfortunate for Ukrainians, but thats just the way it is. Now with expendable North Korean mercenaries, Ukraine has already lost as Russia has addressed the attrition issue with its own citizens by now securing fodder that nobody will miss or have issue with, very low risk for Russia and it cost Ukraine everything, those arent good odds and its only a matter of time.

@Castanza your above post was good, when you're dealing with small sums that "hurt" if you lose it changes the emotion. I also have never understood (or maybe I understood early) that there really are only a couple variables that you completely control when investing. How much you sock away How long your timeline is to let it "work" If you are saving enough, even what many would consider mediocre returns add up and will provide satisfactory results, and if you give even modest sums long enough to compound (aka start as early as possible) it should provide satisfactory results. Probably the most common lack of focus is people getting the pot large enough to make a difference, they dont save enough or have enough disposable income to get a fat kitty. Instead they put that money toward to oversized home or fancy vehicle, so that when they do "invest", in order to have any meaningful results they would have to have returns that would put them in the .0001% of all investors in history, and thus the appeal of WSB brag posts. They start late in life and have a small pot, trying to work miracles, they want the winning lotto ticket. Again to your point, 401k allocation, nobody wants to play with compound interest calculators, have no idea what the rule of 72 is, no idea what an expense ratio is etc etc. Very very basic stuff but its not sexy like turning $1k into $100k in 6mo taking a flier on a "hot tip" that they saw/heard someplace and got in before the rest of the crowd. Also doesnt help that there is now, more than ever before, a plethora of exposure via social media showing them the mansions, exotic cars that resulted in buying a course, attending a seminar, paying a coach to get rich quick. Its like Ozempic for investing lol, nobody wants to put in the work when there is an easy way for them to get what they want without changing their behavior.

I def would NOT want a dividend, primarily for tax purposes, and I feel like Warren understands that as do most BRK shareholders, its been voted on several times and it resulted in a pretty resounding NO THANKS. Return of capital would be more beneficial to shareholders while avoiding the tax man, personally it would present additional challenges of finding a new place to deploy, but I'd be fine with it, better I figure out what to do with the $$ rather than Uncle Sam.