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Blugolds

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Blugolds last won the day on August 1 2023

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  1. Good tips for travel with kids already, we have traveled multiple times with our twin boys 16mo, basics already covered above, plenty of diapers, wipes, snacks, pacifiers in diaper bag for easy access. Your kids are older so it may not all apply, might be "easier" for you as they are communicating. As for travel in airport etc. We had small strollers that folded, one for each kid. What we found to be a lifesaver were backpacks! Walking around airport we put the boys in backpacks, we both wore a kid. Small strollers we used as luggage carriers and it frees up both hands and you dont have to keep tabs on the kids. When we got to the gate, we had large bags (like hockey bags) that packed into the backpacks lower compartment, at the gate, the backpack and stroller folded up and went into the gate check bag, drop them at the entrance of the plane and the plane throws them in the belly, when you get off the plane they are there waiting for you, grab them and as soon as we got back to the boarding area we unpacked them, kids back in backpacks, strollers out for carrying stuff etc. The only way I could figure out movement with kids as well as rolling luggage etc without a monster cart. It worked really well. Only other challenge was the actual flights, and as stated above, plenty of distractions worked for us. A variety of snacks, we went to the dollar store and bought about $20 worth of cheap trinkets and sticker books that they had never seen before and would give them one when they started getting fussy, then when they got bored, we would switch them out. Helped a lot. Empty water bottles for the kids and fill them at the airport or when walking around at destination. 4yr old might be a little big for a backpack, but 2yr old would work, technically I think they do work for 4yr old depending on size. They have been a lifesaver because the kids are super chill in them, it frees you up to do whatever you need to do without keeping tabs on them and gives you both hands etc. We usually buy diapers/wipes etc at destination, dont know availability in the area that you will be traveling but what we found was that when traveling you either pay to pack everything and check what you need or pay to buy new when you get there and use what you need and leave the rest, we found it easier to pack and travel with less, buy what we need when we get there and leave what we dont use, didnt waste much and made everything significantly easier. Just something to consider. Also the tip on one person responsible for passports was good. The wife loses literally everything constantly so Im that guy. When I travel internationally I have an inside pocket or money belt type thing that holds a credit card and passports, its always on me close so that if a bag is stolen or lost or any other possible issue, we still have money and a way to get home without hassle, the rest I really dont care about and would be a minor inconvenience, but not having $ or passports turns a minor inconvenience into a nightmare.
  2. Agreed, Horizon was bad, and Im a diehard western fan, and thats why I’ll also watch the other 3, even if they suck because we hardly ever get westerns anymore as a genre, hopefully that will change with the popularity of Yellowstone and the spin offs, we’ve talked about this before, how there is Fast and Furious 15 or whatever and Hollywood makes a western once every decade or something. Anyway Im trying to give them the benefit of the doubt, 1st episode is slow, hopefully it will pick up through the series, I felt like the characters were generic, actors mediocre at best, Costner was good in his role but the story was kinda lame too, felt like a low budget film with 1 big name star and elementary script.
  3. Honestly as someone with the majority of my NW in BRK it does nothing for me really, if anything its kind of a bummer as selfishly I would be much happier if BRK was to get trounced while the cash pool in Omaha is so deep and Buffett let the buyback cannon fire for effect! I do expect an eventual retrace but it's fun to watch. A headline that said, "Buffett record buybacks last quarter" would make me much happier than BRK $1T.
  4. I think it can be both. My examples are definitely "store where there is no competition" but to your point, I also have seen several instances in various locations where there is a Dollar General and a Dollar Tree nearly within the same parking lot and I remember several times thinking what is this? Like some kind of bargain/discount strip mall area? Didn't see the competitive advantage there at all. As to what percentage of their locations across the country are locationally advantaged vs just in the mix with the rest of the options, I have no clue my comments are purely anecdotal and haven't done a deep dive, I wouldn't consider myself a shopper at either of them and the couple times I have stopped in I don't see anything that would make a customer pick one deep discount retailer of chintzy products over the other, literally the only differentiating factor that I can see is location to the customer but if they are within a 200 yards of each other then that kind of goes out the window.
  5. I suppose nothing, but in all honesty these towns are very, very small, we're talking maybe a local cafe or two, a gas station (maybe 1 chain station and 1 off brand) , maybe a subway a church or two and of course several bars. I dont think the community could support Aldi enough to build out there even if pulling residents from rural areas in a 30 min radius, its all farms and trailer homes on land. I dont know if it would be worthwhile to build out a new location for Aldi when there are certainly better options with higher traffic in other areas of the state/country. I was thinking about it more thoroughly, in my 2 hour drive, the first hour is major interstate larger towns/cities and they have DG that faces more competition via all the big retail names TGT, WMT etc... the last hour is rural hwy, I pass through 4 of these small rural towns, 3 of them have DG locations. 2 of the towns are as I described above and in the previous post 30-60 min from any other option or what I would consider a competitor. the final town closest to the cabin is nearly 100% tourism supported, large lake/flowage, resorts, bars, marinas and again no other options, the nearest option is 20 min away in a slightly larger (but still small town) that has a Walmart and an ACE hardware, Walmart has been there for probably 15-20yrs now and the ACE has been there for at least 30. I dont consider the ACE competition because the offerings are totally different, but WMT would be with grocery options and other cheap goods. Another interesting observation, we are big Aldi shoppers for things we dont get at COST, but occasionally I risk life and limb to enter WMT in our major metro area, generally for the same items eow or so. I have noticed when we do extended stays at the cabin WMT is the option we choose generally once we get there for the same staples and the prices on several items are actually HIGHER in the rural area than they are back home. So the people are really stuck, no options to speak of and the options that they do have charge 20%+ more on several basics (and that is just what I noticed) that I can buy them for back home. This county like I said supported nearly entirely via tourism is one of the poorest in the state according to analysis, so they really feel that expense and the majority (again according to analysis by provided by the county/state) are uneducated and below the poverty line). Its easy to see how a cheap retailer like DG can come in, give them a cheaper, closer, convenient option and take some of that community market share from WMT. Also in these Midwest rural areas in winter a 30 min drive vs "down the street" can be a big deal in bad weather for folks driving clapped out hoopties.
  6. I live in a major metro area and there are DG around, but I have a cabin several hours away that I frequent regularly, that drive takes me through several rural small towns with no major retailers, but they have DG and they always have a full parking lot, its really the residents only option that doesnt require driving 30-60 min to a more populated area with major retail, I think that it their niche. Not investment recommendation just an observation. Also the nature of the store and its target customer would lend itself to comments I suspect. At least when I have gone in to grab something its usually a customer base attracted to ultra cheap products, generally out of socioeconomic necessity.
  7. Same....BRK, CSU, COST, FRFHF all positions that I am comfortable holding if the market closed for the next 5-10 yrs. Percentage of port reflects that as well. As stated by other posters above, tax consequences have to be considered. I do take smaller positions in "2nd tier names" that I monitor more frequently but again, percentage of port reflects that. Some of my smaller positions that I have held have also turned into much larger percentages and in hindsight I should have swung harder! These may not yield that absolute best returns possible or trounce the market but I sleep very well at night. In the event of market turbulence I view it as opportunity to add to the core concentrations and pick up other stuff on the watch list. IM not great at really knowing in great detail dozens of businesses so for me, the core concentrations are just easier to manage/understand etc. My circle of competence is probably lower than many others here, but the concentrated long term holds I know very well.
  8. Haha, Same here, she is all in BRK with over 100% gains, she has girlfriends who’s husbands are excited about BTC and talk about it constantly, guys tell wives it’s not if they will be rich, its when, BTC literally has “unlimited potential”. Wife asks me if we own BTC, I say “Nope”, she says maybe thats something we should put some in to. My wife knows nothing about investing, nothing about finance, she’s tagged along to Omaha a few times, but outside that she doesn’t concern herself with it, I obviously handle the accounts and have since we have been together. So, no props for BRK from the Real Housewives, its boring, but if some day those gals are sitting on their multi-million dollar yacht and we’re the “broke” friends, basically a complete 180 occurs in the financial landscape of the friend group, Im never gonna live it down lol.
  9. Adding to FRFHF today and the last few days, $1050 looks good to me, hopefully it does to them as well.
  10. I cant get into my Fidelity account Seems to be resolved
  11. I've seen speculation that BRK may have sold directly to Apple. Avoids open market and ensures a good price for both parties that they may not have been able to get in the open.
  12. Return of capital would an option, although I would rather they have solid alternative options. I dont think a Div is on the table currently. BRK shareholders (myself included) have been pretty clear about how they feel about div when voting on proposals. I dont think BRK would sell Apple and pay a tremendous amount of tax on that money, just to pay it out to shareholders who then also pay tax on it. Just doesnt seem logical. My guess is Apple position getting big, valuation is full. I think its funny when people comment on BRK Apple position as being too big, too dependent on one single holding, too much risk...then they reduce the position and then people complain, "well what the hell is he gonna do with all that cash?! what is the better alternative!? why is he keeping KO and selling Apple?!" This IS a tremendous amount a cash, and certainly seems like such behavior would indicate some kind of reasoning for such.
  13. I guess my thinking is that this IS what he is doing, we see it at shareholder meetings now featuring Warren and Greg at the front table. Without coming out and saying it, my guess is that Greg is basically doing the job already, like a kid riding a bike, mom/dad are holding on to the back of the bike seat and running along the bike, the kid knows/thinks they are there and gives them confidence and then without the kid specifically watching the parents hand pull away from the seat, and still running along side the bike they are riding the bike on their own without the assistance before they even realize it. My guess is that already, or soon, Warrens hand is off the back of the seat, or only occasionally hanging on to the seat while running along side Greg. If it was ANY other CEO I think the transition probably already happens and louder, but given its WB, and BRK and those two are so connected, it makes it a bigger deal for perception. I personally dont worry about it. Warren is probably one of the most intelligent and thoughtful partners an investor could ask for, and this creation he has made through his life work is his baby, and he certainly has considered all angles for his succession, he had the ability to pick probably anybody in the world to replace him and Greg was his choice, I'm sure he has considered Gregs strengths and weaknesses and will accommodate anything that he felt might pose a challenge. Im sure they have discussed theories and strategies there. I think that they both realize that Greg isnt going to be doing 20% a year but Im also sure that they have discussed options to ensure "adequate" returns for remaining shareholders going forward and what those potential levers are as options for Greg. To continue your Mozart analogy, I fully expect Warrens succession plan to be his Crescendo ending. This is all speculation, but this is the way I think about it, and it gives me faith because if I, as a simpleton think this way and this would be my goal and the way I would attempt to do things myself if I was in Warrens position, certainly he must think beyond me as he and Charlie are the ones who created the masterpiece and are certainly levels above my own ability.
  14. Another thing to consider, and I think I remember hearing it at a shareholder meeting maybe, I cant remember exactly. A hypothetical, but also probability I would say better than zero...is that with the pandemic scare, maybe the phones WERE ringing in Omaha, and they were discussing particulars working on a deal perhaps, explains the hesitation to deploy capital elsewhere, and then due to the swift rescue by the feds, the deal never transpired and to outsiders it looked like they were sitting there sucking their thumb.
  15. I would have liked to see him be more aggressive in 2020, Covid lows as well, hindsight is easy here, but then I remember that BRK #1 priority is to protect the base, preserve the fortress/shareholders/partners. Its easy to forget that Ackman was on CNBC...CRYING, there were medical ships in the NYC harborm National Guard tent citys, the roads were closed, I am in the O&G industry and for the first time in my career the airports were NOT buying Jet fuel shipments it was crazy, there were a TON of unknowns. At the time we didnt know that it would kind of turn out to be a nothing burger, its easy to forget that the potential was there to be really really bad, like a once in a lifetime or couple lifetimes event and had the gov not been so aggressive with stimmy checks etc, the results could have been totally different and it becomes more reasonable to see why WB errored on the side of caution, it really wasnt an error, it was sticking to the primary goal of protection given the potential risks at the time and the unknowns. Hindsight, yeah, should have been headed outside with buckets to catch the raining gold rather than a thimble, but again, thats with hindsight and what we know now. It could have ended up much worse than the GFC. I was looking at purchase history for BRK and I was glad that I personally was buying hand over fist during that time, so I was personally able to take advantage of the opportunity even if BRK wasnt, but I can at least reason on why they behaved the way they did.
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