rohitc99

@thepupil can you share what is the way to execute on this ? buy ETF on tips ? how does on buy mortgages ?

thank you !

can you share how you are increasing the duration ? buying the 20 yr treasury directly or via TLT also how does one invest in the agency mortgages ? thanks in advance

thanks !

agree ..just that the interface is quite bad. is there is minimum threshold or can buy smaller lots

for the Cusip 91282CCA7, i checked with merril lynch. the minimum orders seems to be 100K+. do you have the same limitation for Schwab ? treasuries dont seem to have that limit ...around 1000 dont know if i am looking at this right. Do Tips have a higher minimum orders in general ?

I work in supply chain and its quite chaotic. In the past demand was a constraint, so the focus was always to order as needed and not constrain supply. when demand spike, these orders went through, but some critical components could not be sourced such as chip. now you have a glut and excess of everything except those few critical components now supply is being and everyone is working hard to bring down the excess. as soon as the critical components are available, we could see the shortages dissapear. a lot of demand may also be articifically inflated. people over order when there is shortage. we could see the reverse happen as supply returns to normal

Yes, seeing the same in our company too ..electronic/networking equipment. Inventory piling up though also due to chip shortage which continues for now

Also keep in mind, that rupee is not a full convertible currency. Its managed to a certain extent by the central bank. ofcourse i have no idea if its undervalued or overvalued ...just pointing out one more factor to consider and the Indian central bank and govt prefers to weaken the rupee against the dollar to boost exports. they buy and sell the currency so that this depreciation is orderly

The inflation in India for the last 20+ years has usually been 3-5% higher than the US. Now that reverse in the future, but India has usually had high inflation due to supply side issues and govt interventions. If that changes, then you are right

averaging 1 Mn per year or less than 0.3% per annum and dropping for last 5 years. i dont think we risk getting run over by any ethnic group any time soon

and the son of one of those russian computer scientist started google , created 1.5 Tn of wealth and 100K+ high paying jobs Anyway US is getting some of what you are wishing for. Look at the venture space outside of the US ...a lot of the brightest are starting companies in their home countries. I know a lot of such folks in India who have no desire to immigrate to the US considering the number of hoops they have to jump through. They have started companies in india and the ecosystem is now moving to places like bangalore We just have to keep doing what we are doing in the US (make legal immigrants wait for 50+ years in the queue) and we will achieve what you think the masses want

India has a history of weakening the rupee over time. you may want to model 3-4% annual depreciation against the dollar.

You make fair points and i don't disagree. However the viewpoint in India, is that Europe has not really cared about their 'humanitarian' concerns all these years and have focused on their own narrow interests. Now expecting other countries to do otherwise is hypocrisy if you are interested, you can watch some of the video/speeches by the India foreign minister on this topic I think outside of the media chatter, India is definitely trying to balance its equation with the both the sides in its own self interest

This may not be a popular view in the west, the question to ask - why should india support ukraine/europe ? Ukraine has voted against india in most international forums. Europe/US have not been any better in the last 70+ years. Now that they need support from India for whatever reason, they talk of moral reasons etc. India is acting in its own interests as have US and Europe in the past. Russia has supported India when US was supporting Pakistan. So there is reason India should not leverage the situation to its own benefit

spot on !! you are good at this

my concern is BIAL which accounts for a large portion of the value. What the government is doing is par for course - Keep changing the terms such that in the long run the investor earns sub par returns. losses are borne by the investor and when the asset turns, then cap the upside by calling the profits as excess

isnt GOOG the same ? most of their earnings are from search. youtube is there too but unlike MSFT not as diversified ?

which kind of comes to the point that if the country we live in gets into a war and gets destroyed, the stock markets and its returns will be the last of our priority. Ukraine comes to mind here in the present. Actually the experience of the US and some of the european countries for the last 200 yrs is the exception. most other place have seen huge destruction of life, property and wealth I would invest hoping the country survives and does well, but if doesnt then i have other and bigger problems to worry about

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/december-home-sales-drop-4point6percent-as-supply-hits-record-low.html

But the world has a long way to go. In May 2021 researchers at Freddie Mac, a “government-sponsored enterprise” which subsidises much of American mortgage finance, estimated that the world’s largest economy faced a shortage of nearly 3.8m homes, up from 2.5m in 2018. Other estimates put the shortfall closer to 5.5m. In England an estimated 345,000 new homes per year are needed to meet demand, but builders are further away from the target than they have ever been. Unless something profound changes, pricey property may be around for a while yet https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/how-long-can-the-global-housing-boom-last/21807002

Yes, these are people working as Tech consultants

i could be mistaken on this as i dont have one. i was told that an S-corp can withhold earnings and pay the owner a salary. that way the 'employee' gets paid less and is taxed at a lower rate. if you want to pull the earnings, then you pay yourself a dividend and get taxed accordingly. thats my understanding which could be wrong If thats not allowed, i hope those who are doing it better be careful

So true. I have friends who do the same work as me, but as an independent via S Corp. They paid themselves less than 60K, got great tax breaks and also some of the Covid Loans. In effect for similar skills and work, they are able to extract far more from the system. I know of doctors and business owners who do the same. Its perfectly legal stuff and they are even proud of it

@Gregmal what would be a good way to play this ? XLE ? other commodity ETF ?