rohitc99

two comments - 877 was the rig count in 2018 and 500 is now, so the rig count is down. so not sure if i am following your point also will you not account for the well depletion which i think is 8% per annum? again, not arguing against your point, but trying to understand if i am missing something

Fair point, but i am looking at the trend. Over a 5 year period, the number of rigs is reducing with production still growing. With shale wells, where the drop is high after year 1, wouldnt this number move proportionally at the same productivity level ? point i am making is that the industry seems to be getting more efficient and may that explains why lower investments are still supporting the same or higher production again this is just my guess and i dont have any special insight

US oil production 2018 - 10951 thousand barrels/day Rig count 2018 ~ 877 US oil production 2023 - 11,911 thousand barrels/day Rig count 2023 ~ 500 oil production up by 9% while rig count is down 43% which means US shale is getting more and more efficient. my guess is that the assumption that we need the same $ for incremental production, where as the stats show that the industry continues to grow production at lower cost (for now). maybe this explains it ?

Will dearly miss him. This quote from him got me through some of the toughest times in life " You should never, when facing some unbelievable tragedy, let one tragedy increase into two or three through your failure of will.

thanks. i understand the commerical property glut. is this the case for residential in Arizona or do you think this is happening in other places too

if you dont mind, can you elaborate more ?

The argument being made is for general intelligence ? or AGI and i think no one thinks we are there yet. However even with the current capabilities, there are a few emerging use cases which can improve productivity for sure for example, my kids use ChatGpt as a tutor and they are finding it very useful often better than TA in college. so even if these models are not disruptive, they are definitely useful in a narrow use case as they stand today. Add multi modal capabilties and ongoing enhancements, and its quite possible it help in improving productivity

+ 1 so true and it describes so many of the millionaires and billionaires today

A lot of current debate also assumes current set of needs, but we have seen humans have unlimited wants. i am sure we will find something new. also the level of global proverty is still quite high. just taking billions of people out of it with lesser resources should be a net positive

but then where's the fun if you can't complain and whine even if you are better off by objective measure ? I think morgen housel's recent podcast covers some of this paradox. we can be better off ourselves, but dont feel good if the elon musks or jeff bezos of the world have 100s of billions

if this works, it would be great. ofcourse fusion has always been 40 years away

well laid out. If an indian citizen, is agitating for something, atleast that has some reasoning behind it. If a non citizen supports a movement in some other country based on his faith, funds violence and uses its domestic leverage, what do you call him ? we know what the US calls them Its easy to see this through a western lens as this article is also, but you have to know the history of the past 50 years to understand the context. There have been regular bombings and shooting by islamic terrorist and ofcourse this. All the representation etc was of no use because India had no economic weight and could be ignored Now some of these governments are being forced to face up to it because they cannot ignore it as the article says so There is a lot of good will between the citizens of the two countries. Hope it doesn't go down the drain in the future

There is a very long history behind this movement. Have family members from that part of India and it was horrible when this movement was at its peak. A lot of people were killed in the violence during the 80s on both sides. People have very dark memories of that era and any sign of it getting revived is going to create a lot of angst

Add to the fact that general elections are around the corner in India and overall history of being looked down upon by the west in the past. Even if accusations are true, there is no reason to do this discreetly unless you are pandering to some vote bank Cant see an easy out for both parties now

thats why i said that instead of 3 cars, people keep 1 or 2 cars for such eventuality. anyway outside of north america, a lot of people already follow this model. have 1 or 2 cars and use public transport which is being replaced by uber and other ride sharing

But it can always be incremental ? instead of 3 cars, maybe have 1 or 2 cars/ family. also with EV + Autonomous, number of driven miles on owned car comes down which means owners have the same cars longer. Car then becomes like an insurance or high end cars for pleasure

+1

screener

you are proving to be right on inflation and before that covid's impact on the market. thats 2 for 2 , please keep going

The funny thing is i get to hear about their views of US from my family in India and they assume that there are shootings all the time, everywhere. There is a fire or hurricane or some craziness in Washington all the time Ofcourse the amazing amount of innovation and work never gets reported. and most people have normal lives and go about their day Same for india - only the drama gets reported. the conflict with pakistan is more like a proxy fight between india and china now and hardly impacts the economy or the day to day life The key change most indians have yearned for is access to better quality of life which is now improving very rapidly at the ground level. for years, nothing happened and now whenever i visit, i can see change. In the past, emigrating to the west was a ticket to a better life. That started changing 10 yrs back and i know a lot of bright people feel staying put and doing a startup is a better option that said, tolerance in the society is down for sure

The amount of infrastructure build out happening in india is enormous. Metros in 70+ cities, highways, bridges, airports, railways, electrification. Water for all. There is a lot which is happening which is not reported in the media in the west which is still backward looking you can check some of the infrastructure companies in the country to see how they are doing to get a feel

Why does India have to be a solution for anything. Like all other countries, they are doing what is best for them (finally !!) They have done ok in the past inspite of all kinds of bad policies and all no existent infrastructure. I am from India, grew up there and moved to the US 20 yrs back. Still have my roots there and visit quite often. Not sure what the country not being stable means ? 70+ years of democracy, no coups, people get to vote. freedom of speech and action (maybe not as much as some countries in the west) Somehow the view from far appears more chaotic than the reality.

Outside of the BIAL, the other companies such as IIFL and other financials (~ 30% of the book value) are doing quite well. Some of them are growing 25% for now. When the biggies like ICICI bank can grow assets for now at 20%, the smaller companies in the financials space can do better So a 15% annual growth in book value is not a very high bar

thank you !

I had to get with the Boilermaker program starting about 7 years ago - can you share that if you dont mind ?