rohitc99

You may want to keep an eye on what is happening in india. Currency has depreciated by close to 15% YTD. There is some level of liquidity squeeze and also financial firms like IIFL have seen their stock price drop a lot. It may all work out in the long run, but in the short term several headwinds

also what gets missed is the land around the airport ..the pace at which the city is expanding (exploding is a better term), this land is going to be very valuable. air travel has become affordable for a very large segment of the population and its going to grow for some time

recent fall seems to be linked to be this news - an ex- director of the company seems to be linked to a bribery scandal https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/ed-revives-agusta-westland-case-fresh-leads

that would require fairfax india to list in india for the minority shareholders of these companies? not sure about the exact rules, but as an investor in the indian markets, i dont know of any foreign company being dual listed in india. the reverse exists where a few indian companies are listed in the US via ADRs I think he's saying that FFH would give the shares to FFH india in exchange for FFH india shares. Since they are both in Canada, I don't think there would be an issues? oh ok, got it. just change of control for thomas cook.

that would require fairfax india to list in india for the minority shareholders of these companies? not sure about the exact rules, but as an investor in the indian markets, i dont know of any foreign company being dual listed in india. the reverse exists where a few indian companies are listed in the US via ADRs

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/thomas-cook-to-sell-5-42-in-quess-corp-to-raise-rs-600-crore/articleshow/61754756.cms. Thomas cook recently sold around 5.5% of quess and booked a gain of close to 100 Mn on the sale. The company plans to use it to pay down debt at the thomas cook level. Thomas cook in itself is an interesting company operating on float via the forex and travel business. Except for recent quarters, it has run the travel and forex business on close to zero capital due to this float. as it grows, this float should allow it to make further accquisitions

https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=0f84fd68-9a81-4d73-bdc5-7e1ec0a5e9bc The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Thomas Cook (India) Limited (“Company”) at its meeting held today have given their consent to the management to explore the possibility of an internal corporate restructuring exercise that would (i) enable the Company to focus on travel related business, (ii) give the shareholders direct exposure and shareholding in the business of Quess Corp Limited; and (iii) enhance the stakeholders’ value (“Proposed Restructuring”).

So Rohit, have you analyzed this? My preliminary analysis indicates a 12-15% ann return for the next 5 years. Better than most opportunities in US but not a slam dunk that Pabrai looks for. Your thoughts? yes, i had a looked at it and on the face of it the brand looks good, distribution and sourcing is nearly impossible to replicate by a new competitor. company for sure enjoys a premium over other brands, but that may not say much considering that the pricing power for this product is limited. the average operating margin is around 15-17% with the recent spike to 24% mainly from the gains the company is making due to low inventory cost. i am not sure how sustainable that is ..if we normalize the earnings, company is selling @ 40 times earnings. looks pricey. my guess is mohnish is playing the long game ..stock goes sideways for sometime and then tracks earnings. your estimate looks about right to me

MUMBAI: US-based investor Mohnish Pabrai's funds bought 64.18 lakh shares or 2.73% stake in rice exporter KRBL, bulk deal data on the BSE showed. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/mohnish-pabrais-funds-buy-2-7-stake-in-krbl/articleshow/62889030.cms?from=mdr

Not really, indian markets were up in december, including IIFL which was up close to 10%. again quite a few of the assets such as BIAL are not listed. irrespective of the reason, the drop was good to raise the position

+ 1 air traffic is growing 15%+ across india. Most airlines are operating with a PLF of 85% and still growing. I have been to the airport several times over the last 10 years and the traffic is up several times. when the airport was built, it was way out of the city and with expansion of the city, it wont be long before the airport comes within the city. A 3% growth in anything in india is almost equivalent to 0 growth or recession. when i looked at the DCF assumptions for BIAL, it was more than obvious they are very very conservative. Look at IIFL ..they are growing 30% and thats not really too high in the space they operate. A lot of other well managed financial services companies of the same size are growing at the same rate. It may sound odd to call 30% growth as conservative, but the tailwinds in the financial services space is quite high

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/ge-announces-12000-job-cuts-at-ge-power.html General Electric announced on Thursday it was axing 12,000 jobs at its global power business as the struggling industrial conglomerate responds to dwindling demand for fossil fuel power plants. and GE rival Siemens is cutting about 6,900 jobs, or close to 2 percent of its global workforce, mainly at its power and gas division, which has been hit by the rapid growth of renewables.

Do you have any supporting maths for this claim? ;) Yes, Bangalore Airport publishes an annual report with all the numbers.. I have read a couple ..they are way ahead of their targets put out in 2007-08 period. You can also find some of these numbers in Fairfax India annual meeting presentation..you can find it here http://www.fairfaxindia.ca/news/Events/default.aspx slide 31 I lived in bangalore for a long time and have often travelled through the airport. The 3% growth assumptions by the company is very conservative. air traffic is growing low double digits. also the land around the airport has a large optionality and future value as the city is expanding towards the airport too

John, personally I'm just interested by the tech and by the field, which I've been following for almost 20 years. I haven't seen anything that makes me want to invest in energy, clean or otherwise. Seems like a hard business to invest in. +1 ...the field is interesting to follow. also if it works out, then there are some non energy businesses which will get disrupted big time.

I have started a new RIA firm and we currently quite small. I am looking for an RIA compliance service on an ongoing basis. would appreciate any recommendation of a firm which you are aware of or have worked with. please dm me if you dont want to share here thanks

+ 1 fully agree with you dazel. If you cannot invest directly in india, this is a good option. If like me, you can do both - invest in fairfax and directly in india (being an indian citizen), this is still a viable option as fairfax has access to great private companies which a public investor will not get that said, as an aside, the indian market are seeing pockets of over heating specially in the mid and small cap space. would make sense to be cautious. also the indian markets are very very volatile, so one has to be careful.

I would actually say they are being too conservative in their valuation. for example, in case of BIAL their DCF assumes a growth of 3% or something like that. i think thats the case for almost all the private holdings where they have assumed such low single digit growth rates. they may sound right in NA, but in india (where i invest), this way below par. inflation itself is 6-7%. on average 10% is the starting point and finding companies growing at 15%+ in not difficult. for example IIFL is growing 30%+ and thats not extra-ordinary ..par for the course in this sector for well managed companies. BIAL has been growning passenger traffic at 20%+ and i have travelling via that airport for ages. that part of the city is expanding the land around airport is going to far more valuable in the future. that does not mean the stock is fairly priced or something like that ..just that these companies have very good growth opportunities ahead of them ok that's helpful. thank you. Do you believe that at 1.35x book per share, that this stock is still worth kicking the tires on at this point? It has all the makings of a really good investment potentially... the stock is not undervalued for sure, but i think they do have some good assets on the book. there seems to be good upside in sanmar where the CPVC plant, once operational could work out well (lots of demand for CPVC piping in india). same is true for saurashtra too. in addition fairfax seems to have built a team which is getting access to good deals. i think they should be able to compound at a good rate in the future ..i would not be surprised to see 20% compounding for some time.

I would actually say they are being too conservative in their valuation. for example, in case of BIAL their DCF assumes a growth of 3% or something like that. i think thats the case for almost all the private holdings where they have assumed such low single digit growth rates. they may sound right in NA, but in india (where i invest), this way below par. inflation itself is 6-7%. on average 10% is the starting point and finding companies growing at 15%+ in not difficult. for example IIFL is growing 30%+ and thats not extra-ordinary ..par for the course in this sector for well managed companies. BIAL has been growning passenger traffic at 20%+ and i have travelling via that airport for ages. that part of the city is expanding the land around airport is going to far more valuable in the future. that does not mean the stock is fairly priced or something like that ..just that these companies have very good growth opportunities ahead of them

If you look at china and india, where a lot of incremental demand is coming in - ICE vehicles are simply unsustainable. you have visit a bejing or new delhi during the winter months to believe it. you cannot breathe in the open. both the countries are already putting plans in place to move to EV/ Solar due to these issues. In a lot of these places, it has gone beyond the point of cost - the externalities have become huge. I can share a personal example - when india went from gasonline to natural gas in cities, the drop is pollution was quite big. moving to EV is becoming critical in a lot of cities also all these countries have very high population densities. so the problems of low population density in midwest (where i live) is a non issue in these places

there are parts of the world such as rural india or africa, where you dont get electricity with any reliability or sometimes none at all. in such places, even an intermittent power source is better than the alternative (firewood which causes cancer, lung disease , expensive kerosene or nothing)

In terms of consumer behavior, is it reasonable to compare an ipod/iphone to a car. the first one costs 200-650 dollars and the worst that will happen is that one can replace it in a year or two. In contrast a 35K+ purchase will be far more involved. To ditch a fully depreciated ICE engine car and upgrade to a EV will be a bigger economic decision than changing your phone. also at 35K and higher, not everyone would like to pay too much of a premium for the brand/ emotional appeal, especially at the lower end. i dont have an answer, but will it not be tougher for a tesla to disrupt other car makers compared to the cell/ electronic industry where there have been several waves of disruption (motorola, blackberry and then apple) compared to auto

I wrote to clarke inc and they have confirmed they are mostly likely not a PFIC. ofcourse, there is always the disclaimer to check with your accountant

Why don't you ask Uccmal via private message? That was certainly a catalyst to my thinking about it. I wasn't picking on him. It just occurred to me it is really difficult. Bill Miller performed spectacularly until he didn't and much was lost. You can find dozens who have crashed badly enough their long term records reverted to the average. Lampert did great until he met Sears - then he ran into himself and the Peter Principle. Its awfully hard to recover from a really ugly pick(s). Walter Schloss kept up high returns for decades by sticking to a tight formula, and never doubling down on anything. John Neff did the same, with similar results as Walter. Partly I am tired of my own crappy results the last couple of years. My portfolio is Now 90% in dividend payers, except pdh, and pwt. I am trying to pick companies that will maintain, and raise their dividends regularly. I am willing to take lower total returns to have downside protection. And I am trying to get them on sale, at least somewhat. there seems to be some link between concentrated portfolios and trouble. most of the spectacular highs and lows seems to be with concentrated portfolios. you keep doing well for some time and then a few bad picks cause the returns to revert to the mean. in contrast the likes of schloss never went for home runs ..so their highs were not as high, but the lows were not as bad. i guess unless one has the skills of a buffett/ munger , a few % outperformance with a diversified portfolio has a much better chance

There has been a change in the competitive scenario in india. New licenses for payment banks and small lending banks have been issued. HDFC bank may find it difficult to maintain these growth rates in the future

different investing styles, different currencies and ofcourse different countries if not continents. are these results representative of anything ? on individual basis maybe, but we dont know what is getting aggregated in the graph