Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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2 hours ago, thepupil said:
I am impressed with your problems. Well done!
Thank you, but the marathon is not over. I need to be able to raise three kids as productive, hard working, honest citizens with grit, also kind and well rounded. That is a very hard part, and motivating them is a bit of a problem... I also was very lucky in that I have wise parents who guided me well, and I got lucky with my choice of a career - thanks to parental advice.
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2 hours ago, KJP said:
The folks in Lower Merion SD are aghast they didn't make the list.
I probably should add it to the list, but could it be too high end? Gladwyne seems to be a bit snobby.
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I hope that Shepherdson is correct, however in the markets that I track, suburbs of NY (Westchester, Manhasset, Darien, Bergen County, Millburn, Chatham), suburbs of Phily (Radnor Township School District, Tredy- school district, Newton Bucks County, Richboro), Boca Pointe (in Boca Raton, FL) and Maui, there is essentially no inventory and from my recollection it is less than half of what it was three years ago. Prices however in Boca & Maui are probably up 50-100% since 2019. In Manhattan, there is NO inventory either 3+ bedroom apartments. So if the market cracks, great, but I have not seen it in the markets I track. I am in the market for: 1) three/four bedroom in Manhattan; 2) house on Maui; 3) house in Boca Pointe; 4) house in the suburbs of NYC. I am flexible if I get number one, I do not need number four. If I get number two I do not need number three.
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21 hours ago, Gregmal said:
More Fairfax
Greg, why do you like Fairfax here? Thank you.
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13 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:
I retired about seven years ago when I was 43. I did it by having a job that would pay for my living expenses, while repeatedly doing Taleb's black swan strategy (though I was doing it about a decade before The Black Swan explained what I was doing.) The strategy is to look for asymmetric bets, moonshot investments that you can buy for small amounts, and could amount to nothing or to a very large amount. I kept doing this until I had three winners, and that was enough to retire with a 2.5% annual withdrawal rate.
I have a wide variety of investments, both high and low risk, but have some fairly conservative preferreds and dividend-producing stocks to stabilize things and provide a bit of income, though only a fraction of our expenses. We have a friend as a tenant who pays rent. We also have the ability to cut back expenses should that be required, and a house that could be liquidated if necessary. The combination of these things gives me some confidence that we can recover from most disasters.
I do continue to try for low-cost positive black swans, and I've identified one since retirement.
For withdrawals, I tend to convert large chunks of the portfolio to cash, like enough for a year or two of expenses. I do this when it's convenient in the market, convenient for my portfolio, or convenient from a USD/CAD exchange rate perspective.I agree that the sequence of returns for your portfolio matters a great deal--if you get nuked in the first decade or so, you can run into trouble.
What do you do about health insurance? I am in your situation, but wife still has to work to provide the family with health insurance. Thank you for any tips/advice re acquiring health insurance.
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
What advice would you give someone Kyle? If you had a do over? Just. Getting. Started?
Do not put 100% of the fund into the macro bet. May be lose 1% per annum via option premium on a position that can go up 40-100x, and keep the rest in other investments/bets/strategies.
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18 hours ago, Ulti said:
I've got a question.... can the below figures be used to evaluate the worth of O&G companies as well as aquisitions? In a very rough sort of way ? And in US and Canada.
Denver company struck a deal to sell the business and its South Texas oil assets to Devon Energy Corp. for $1.8 billion Tuesday, more than double the price that the oil wells and mineral rights cost 18 months ago.Validus’ wells currently produce about 35,000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day, nearly 70% of which is crude oil. Production is growing on a pace to reach 40,000 barrels per day in 2023, Devon said.
No. Clearly a company with 20 years worth of production reserves will be worth more than a company with 3 years left. Also depends on marginal costs - some fields are much cheaper to produce than others, pipeline capacity esp for nat gas. I know analysts have used price paid per barrel of production but it is not an intellectually correct way of approaching the problem and can have massive errors.
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12 hours ago, Gregmal said:
First thing you need to see is that if someone is applying stock market characteristics to the housing market theyre an idiot and you can write off anything they have to say.
Someone I hadn’t spoke to in a while emailed me the other week asking if I was concerned that some people might already be down 10-20% from prices a few months ago on their recent home purchases. I was going to respond and eventually didn’t cuz I didn’t want to be too condescending but if that’s how you think of the housing market you shouldnt be anywhere near it. There’s no day trading of houses, there’s very rarely forced liquidation and those take months or years. Anything that sold today and previously is gone. 95% 30 year fixed and vetted rates they know they can afford as demonstrated by lending standards. So the only area you may see true declines in in new supply but even there the builders will take volume over pricing all day. Investors generally underwrite their purchases to rental income. And everyone else buying just wants a home. So to answer his question about the mark to imaginary market on a home purchase from say April? Unless you’re a degenerate gambler…how are you feelin? Great that you’re finally in a home.
Second thing is that not all pricing is equal and simply following headlines is misleading. Great example was a home in Florida I was looking at. Sold in 2016 for $700k. 2020 for $1.7m. $2021 for $2.4. Listed in April for $5.5m and was reduced twice down to $4.4 before selling at $4.2m. To the dumb housing bear this is bearish because of all the “price cuts”. I don’t even need to explain how it’s actually the opposite.
Greg, this may be the wrong forum, but would you consider a house with a drain easement? I am looking at a house in Woodcliff Lake and it has a drain easement, and I am trying to understand the potential implications of the drainage easement. (I googled the stuff on the web, so I have an "academic" understanding, but practical knowledge is lacking.) Thank you.
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58 minutes ago, RedLion said:
So let's say there's a takeout offer for a big 30%+ premium. Presumably the LEAP put will lose more than the LEAP call gains because there would be a big move in the stock presumably accompanied with a reduction in volatility? It seems like the biggest risk would be for a big move right after putting on the position before being able to recoup the LEAP premiums by selling weeklies?
Your leap put that you are long will lose more than the short-term put that you are short. Your long term call leap will go up less than the short-term call that you are long. That's correct, you lose if there is a sharp sudden move early on.
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Here is how you lose: say there is a 20%+ move in the stock, even worse a 30% due to a take-out. You lost money on both sides. You are effectively short gamma in this strategy.
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9 hours ago, patience_and_focus said:
+1
Not only that there are relatively very few immigrants using social assistance as compared to natives, it is a lie that is being peddled by stating that legal immigrants use up my hard earned tax dollars into programs like SNAP because of the 1996 act severly restricting access of SNAP and other social program benefits to even legal immigrants (see below - this from CATO institute which is a right leaning organization). That distinction belongs to many of our own esteemed native borns. Infact almost all of the tax dollars go to native borns and among them are many, who, despite given opportunities to climb the economic ladder via hard work and opportunity to study the right trade, refused to do so only to come back and blame the "system". This even in the presence of many of their relatives who were making the most of the opportunity provided by this country.
"Low‐income immigrants use public benefits like Medicaid or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly the Food Stamp Program) at a lower rate than low‐income native‐born citizens. Many immigrants are ineligible for public benefits because of their immigration status. Nonetheless, some claim that immigrants use more public benefits than the native born, creating a serious and unfair burden for citizens. This analysis provides updated analysis of immigrant and native‐born utilization of Medicaid, SNAP, cash assistance (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and similar programs), and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program based on the most recent data from the Census Bureau’s March 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS)"
Conclusion
Low-income non-citizen adults and children generally have lower rates of public benefit use than native-born adults or citizen children whose parents are also citizens. Moreover, when low-income non-citizens receive public benefits, the average value of benefits per recipient is almost always lower than for the native-born. For Medicaid, if there are 100 native-born adults, the annual cost of benefits would be about $98,400, while for the same number of non-citizen adults the annual cost would be approximately $57,200. The benefits cost of non-citizens is 42 percent below the cost of the native-born adults.Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (hereinafter “welfare law”), Pub. L. No. 104– 193, 110 Stat. 2105 (Aug. 22, 1996); and Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (hereinafter “IIRIRA”), enacted as Division C of the Defense Department Appropriations Act, 1997, Pub. L. No. 104–208, 110 Stat. 3008 (Sept. 30, 1996).
That does not prove that they contribute positively.
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
They were jokes. I was basically beating around the bush but I am just curious why everyone, after having no issue whatsoever recklessly casting blame during covid, even stuff as stupid as blaming individual people for the virus, blaming folks not wearing masks, despite the fact there was virtually no supporting evidence for any of their claims, now, goes hush hush when there are clear, science verified facts regarding who and what spreads this? So I won't make the jokes anymore but the question is certainly legit and definitely not out of line for an inquisitive mind. Why are the mouthpieces and news outlets afraid to be honest about this?
All animals are equal but some are more equal than others...
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4 hours ago, rkbabang said:
This is why Democracy sucks as a way of making decisions. Be careful when you side with the masses as the "m" is usually silent.
I would rather be governed by plumbers than by Harvard faculty. Lack of book learning does not imply absence of common sense. Plenty of book smart fools at Yale.
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3 hours ago, rohitc99 said:
and the son of one of those russian computer scientist started google , created 1.5 Tn of wealth and 100K+ high paying jobs
Anyway US is getting some of what you are wishing for. Look at the venture space outside of the US ...a lot of the brightest are starting companies in their home countries. I know a lot of such folks in India who have no desire to immigrate to the US considering the number of hoops they have to jump through. They have started companies in india and the ecosystem is now moving to places like bangalore
We just have to keep doing what we are doing in the US (make legal immigrants wait for 50+ years in the queue) and we will achieve what you think the masses want
See your Sergei Brin and raise with tens of thousands of Russian immigrants on Brighton Beach collecting welfare/supplemental security income + food stamps + receiving Medicaid + receiving Section 8 housing. Don't forget the massive home attendant fraud - nothing wrong with your 68 year old mother/father, but you get a sympathetic doctor to write a note that she/he needs 40 hours a week of home care, and voila - Medicaid pays you for forty hours of "work" + health insurance. Indian immigrants like Satya Nadela & Sundar Pichai (and the list goes on) obviously add a great deal, however in many cases Indians in IT (just like Russians & Chinese immigrants) only hire their own, care to put a value on that? We need a well thought out immigration policy - get people with the right skills, deal with negative externalities, exclude people with few skills, end chain migration, and limit it. If we let 100MM Russians or Chinese or Indians or Africans or pick your favorite nationality/ethnic group in, we will turn the US into the same unpleasant place that these immigrants are fleeing from. Small numbers of immigrants will assimilate, large numbers will change the country.
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4 minutes ago, Longnose said:
I'm with @rkbabang & @Viking on this one. To me its just like capitalism. Immigration may have consequences "Lower wages, higher traffic, higher stress on environment, higher rent and housing prices, higher economic inequality which leads to all sorts of social problems." But to offset those there are many positives that end up balancing out in the end and tipping the scales in a positive direction. Immigrants often have more desire and hunger for success and opportunity and while they may require up front assistance they tend to be good overall.
Then why doesn't Canada or US hold a nationwide referendum and see if the masses agree with you? Also what exactly are the positives of a Russian computer scientist depressing wages or Haitian construction worker destroying job prospects of African Americans?
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1 hour ago, Viking said:
It looks to me like both the US and Canada have built 2 very successful countries over the last +200 years. What was the secret sauce? A key ingredient was immigration. Immigration certainly was not a ‘cost’. Moving forward i can’t really talk to what is best for the US. For Canada i am all for immigration - too many positives to list.The world has changed. There is no need for unskilled labor anymore. Just because something worked two hundred years ago does not mean it works today. Cavalry was great for millenia until tanks and automatic weapons made it useless. Interesting that you do not address the costs that I have outlined. Or does the plight of the poor/unskilled in US and Canada not matter to you?
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There is a real cost to immigration that nobody talks about. Lower wages, higher traffic, higher stress on environment, higher rent and housing prices, higher economic inequality which leads to all sorts of social problems. Lower wages in our welfare state encourage people to stay on the dole with very negative consequence for the society as a whole. I am all for welcoming Einsteins/Fermi/, but not millions of unskilled people with two grades of education who will have ten children that taxpayers will have to educate. You want labor force growth? Reduce welfare benefits (welfare, food stamps, section 8, medicaid, free phones & internet and the list goes on). Fix public schools so that kids can get a good education rather than propaganda, so that middle class is comfortable having 2-3 kids rather than have one because they need to send him to public school.
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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
IBKR works well. I own a bit of TIM (distributor). APR (Auto Partner, car part distribution) also looks interesting, but I don’t own it yet. PKO (largest Polish bank) might be a good one, but I haven’t researched it at all. They all look statistically very cheap, but keep in mind that their raised the interest rates in Poland to 6% , I believe.
The Ukraine war could be a huge LT benefit as millions of Ukrainian came to Poland to escape the war and some will likely stay.
Thank you very much. Have you looked at Warsaw stock exchange? I own Tel-Aviv stock exchange and like exchanges in general.
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10 hours ago, CafeB said:
Interesting. Thank you. Do you have an opinion on Campari? Thanks again
I own it and love it. In my opinion, the best management team in the business. Really smart buyers of assets and then able to grow them. It is less of an exporter though than Diageo or Pernord Ricard or Remy.
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On 7/19/2022 at 5:16 PM, Spekulatius said:
I don’t think that war is over this winter. The sanctions for the most part will stay anyways. Europe does not matter in terms of the outcome all that much, its more the US is supplying the weapons. The EU helps quite a bit to keep the Ukraine’s afloat though with monetary aid.
I don't understand the animosity toward Soros.
Spek, I respect Soros as a great investor, and I appreciate what he had tried to do in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I do not appreciate his funding of people like Chesa Boudin and Alvin Bragg and other leftins. Crime in NYC is going up very sharply, at least in part in my opinion, caused by Bragg's refusal to prosecute criminals for many crimes, and end of cash bail. When I am worried about taking a walk in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in NYC, I do not appreciate people who created the situation.
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On 7/17/2022 at 8:26 AM, Spekulatius said:
I think AKZA (paint) looks interesting and I own some shares. Exor has been mentioned before here. Porsche Holding has an interesting even / unlock as thry want to float Porsche ( as a business). DPW (Deutsche Post) is also very cheap and well run. Then there is Poland where there are a bunch of secular growers that look very cheap.
Air you drill doen to smaller and microcaps , there should be way more opportunities.
Spek, what broker do you use to trade Poland? Any Polish names you'd care to share? What is the thesis on Deutsche Post? I would be careful with Porsche, after 2008 saga, I do not trust the families/management. Do you think that Akza can grow volumes?
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1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:
If you believe Soros from his Davos talk....its actually not a realistic threat from Putin but it seems to work to scare European leaders.
Soros's take was this (i believe he sent a letter to Mario Draghi pointing this out) and I havent done any DD on whether this is even remotely true (maybe O&G folks on here will know) but he effectively said you should think of Russian natural gas as a by product of Russian oil production........the wells they have producing oil, produce gas in Siberia.......the gas is effectively sold off at a very basic cost+ model, there is no margin on Russian gas as it isnt fungible and can be only sold to those at the end of gas pipelines like nordstream.....and anyway the real money margin is in the oil......this is fungible and can put on trucks > tankers and sold to the chinese/iranians/global markets or whatever. Refusing gas deliveries would require the shutting down on some Siberian wells.
I think Soros's point was that EUROPE should shut off nordstream itself or threaten too or heavily curtail usage....knowing that if Putin had nowhere to send the gas it would actually force the closure of his oil fields which would really harm him & his fiscal positon......anyway this seemed kind of fanciful but who knows.
https://www.businessinsider.com/soros-urges-europe-heavy-taxes-on-russian-natural-gas-putin-2022-5
You can simply flare gas, which is what Putin will do rather than shut down wells. I am 99.99% confident that Soros is aware of this, the fact that he omits this fact once again shows that he is, while a great investor, not a person to be trusted in my opinion.
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11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
European stocks are very cheap right now and many have sizable business in the rest of the world. They also benefit from low Euro if they export in the US. I think there are great opportunities investing in Europe right now, similar to the Greek debt crisis back on the day.
The risk of recession is real but a lot this is priced in. I would look at exporters and those with world wide business as well as some local champions.
Spek, which names do you like and why? Thank you very much.
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9 minutes ago, CafeB said:
Any opinion on Pernod Ricard? Thanks
It is cheap. I prefer Remy. Remy is 20% more expensive on a multiple basis, but I think cognac will grow much faster than the spirits industry as a whole, so growth will probably be 1-3% per annum faster than Pernod. Too me, that is worth a 20% P/E premium. I also have owned L'Oreal and Dior for years and think that they are quite cheap here.
Zelman on housing
in General Discussion
Posted
Agreed, I ideally would buy in Oradell since it is a bit less snobbish than Ridgewood, but there is nothing for sale. I mean Oradell, Woodcliff Lake, Haworth, Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Upper Saddle and Franklin lakes all work, but my preference is for Oradell/Glen Rock/Haworth due to much lower snobbism. I came to this country with nothing, and I do not want to raise greenhouse kids. I would walk two miles carrying 40 pounds of stuff in college to save a dollar on a bus fare, I would at least like my kids to not expect a BMW for sixteenth birthday.