Dinar

I would buy today and probably hold for a decade (I own all of these names): Arcosa (ACA), CRH, CP (Canadian Pacific Railroad), St Joe (JOE), MSGE (Madison Square Garden Entertainment), New England Realty (NEN).

First of all, the 6% that attend school can stop attending school and get a job. 2nd of all, 18% that work part-time can actually work full time. That's already 6MM adults. 3rd - I don't believe the data about 43% of people on Medicaid working 40 hours a week and yet being eligible. I don't know about many places, but given wages in California, NY metropolitan area, Boston, Hawaii - nobody who works 40 hours a week there will qualify for Medicaid given income limits. How many people "work full time" and are on Medicaid in those places?

22MM in agriculture jobs? Are you kidding me? That cannot be correct. 10-15% of the US labor force is NOT in agriculture.

a) There is a lot of disability fraud. % of workforce on disability is up 5x since the 1920s/1930s, while clearly computer programming is a safer occupation than mining. b) Where do you get the figure that 40% of people on Medicaid are employed full time? In NYC for instance, wages for fast food are $18+ per hour, that's $38k+ per year. Medicaid income limit in NY is 19K.

25% of the country is on Medicaid. May be institute 40 hours per week work requirements, and if 10% of the 80MM actually get a job, then your problem gets solved?

Yes, but what % are people who came here illegally, and what % came illegally in the last 4 years?

For those worried about impact of Trump deportations: 25% of all illegal immigrants that came to NYC during Biden's administration are supported by the taxpayers currently. https://nypost.com/2024/11/18/us-news/over-223k-migrants-have-come-to-nyc-so-far-double-albanys-population/

What is CNSFW? Cannot find it, thank you.

How would Bronx, or East NY look on your chart? Very very blue, and last in education, last in healthcare, last in quality of life, last in test scores and last in poverty. So what is your point?

New Hampshire is weird - no state income tax, and not that left leaning. MA had a Republican governor until last year. Yes, MA shot itself in the foot with the politics of envy, just as NY & Chicago.

Why? There has not been volume growth in years, correct?

Actually, it is quite the opposite. Other EV makers in the US are not profitable without the credits, so they would have to either greatly raise price or get out of the business, both good for Tesla.

I know. Look at FEMA - spent $3bn+ on Maui to help survivors or $300K per man/woman/child. Signed $12K per month 2 year leases! Seriously? $300K per per person? Paying $150K per annum to rent houses for people to live in Paradise!

How much is wasted? How much is spent on student loans? Pell Grants? Other subsidies to universities? What does DOE spend money on? Why should taxpayers subsidize inefficiencies in NYC? How much is illegal immigration crisis costing us? Medicaid & food stamps? (25% of people in NYC are on Medicaid and food stamps! May be get a job?) Section 8 housing spending? Disability spending - a lot of it is fraud (look at discrepancy by state and religious groups - very low in Utah)? Is NASA or DOD or VA run efficiently?

Here is an interesting anecdote. I have an investment in a company that owns several dozen apartment buildings in and around Boston. Their insurance expense went up 30% - 5% due to a rate increase and 25% due to higher insured value of buildings. The higher insured value drives demand for more insurance, and hence in this example, the insurance industry has to set aside 25% more capital to insure these guys. So if this is replicated across the industry, then this could keep upward pressure on rates. On the supply side, according to Renaissance, they have not seen additional capital enter. Meanwhile, ACGL just announced a 5% special dividend. So it seems the industry is staying discipled. By the way, Tom Gayner of Markel bought around $200k worth of Markel stock in the past two weeks - another insider who is bullish. Everest (EG) just saw a director buy USD 1MM worth of stock. So industry insiders are bullish, time will tell whether they are correct or not.

Renaissance Re on its conference call on November 7th: strong markets and rates are here to stay.

@dealraker, Charlie, would you mind explaining why you'd sold Progressive? (I own it, bought it last summer at $136 or so.) Thank you.

Very, very good investors. A number of their funds have excellent returns.

I haven't been following, what has she done? Thank you.

Kasparov is a pompous fool, he knows chess and probably nothing else! He can't pick wives (on number 3), and he is no strategist. Trump is not loyal to Putin, but US does not need to spend money on helping Ukraine, Germany needs Ukraine to fight, so Germany should pick up the tab. I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany. Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate. Instead, the pompous moron Garry wants hundreds of billions of US aid and hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives to be wasted while he is sitting on Upper West Side of Manhattan scratching himself and saying do I look like Napoleon or Bismark!

It should be offset by the higher discount factor on the insurance liabilities.

You just lie. 90-95% of Jews, all non-combatants, were killed in areas controlled by the Nazis in WWII. What % of Gaza's population that are non-combatants have been killed? 1%? How many non-combatants in Gaza were killed by Hamas? Jews were not shooting at Nazis in 1939 Poland or 1941 Ukraine. You want to end the war? Call for Hamas to surrender.

When Israel puts IDF or Mossad HQ under apartment buildings or hospitals, then you'd be correct. Until then, the answer is no.

No, at the right price, it is. The right price is when you assume that shares are actually warrants, and you want a pay-off associated with warrants.

My limited view is based on talking to dozens of kids from China who have received PhD degrees in math, physics, accounting, and operations in the US and who all have chosen to stay either in US or Western Europe. Not a single one chose to go back to China, including a few that won gold metals at International Math and Physics Olympiads. And your clearly well informed views are based on talking to millions of Europeans and Americans who have chosen to immigrate to China...